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All Journal Journal of Economics, Business, & Accountancy Ventura Cita Ekonomika: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi
Saptenno, Fibryano
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Humanities Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences

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Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables and their Effect on Poverty Assel, Muhammad Ridhwan; Hanoeboen, Bin Raudha Arif; Laitupa, Abdul Aziz; Saptenno, Fibryano
Journal of Economics, Business, and Accountancy Ventura Vol. 25 No. 3 (2022): December 2022 - March 2023
Publisher : Universitas Hayam Wuruk Perbanas

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14414/jebav.v25i3.3451

Abstract

Forecasting macroeconomic variables is crucial to measure dynamic changes during uncertain economic conditions. This study examines and analyzes the appropriate and accurate forecasting model to predict macroeconomic variables in Maluku Province. The main variables used are economic growth, unemployment, inflation, and poverty. The modeling used in this study were Bayesian Vector Autoregressions Model and the Univariate Benchmark Model. The results of this study indicate that the two models have different specifications and forecasting directions. The value of the Univariate Benchmark model’s forecast error size is relatively smaller than that of the Bayesian Vector Autoregressions Model. The results of forecasting macroeconomic variables in Maluku Province have a relatively good level of accuracy and are close to the actual value of the sample period. The Error Correction Model test results show that only the Error Correction Term variable significantly affects the poverty level in the short term. Meanwhile, in the long term, the unemployment rate has a significant effect, and the model used is proven valid. The forecasting results from the model show that the Maluku provincial government must maintain the stability of macroeconomic variables, especially the inflation rate and unemploymentrate, because they tend to increase in the coming year. It can have an impact on reducing people’s purchasing power.
ANALISIS SUKU BUNGA DAN NILAI TUKAR TERHADAP IMBAL HASIL SURAT UTANG NEGARA DI INDONESIA Louhenapessy, Fredy H.; Ramly, Amin; Sapthu, Andre; Saptenno, Fibryano
Jurnal Cita Ekonomika Vol 18 No 2 (2024): Cita Ekonomika: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi
Publisher : Jurusan Ekonomi Pembangunan, FEB Universitas Pattimura

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.51125/citaekonomika.v18i2.16185

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the effect of interest rates, exchange rates and the consumer price index on the yield of Government Securities (SUN) in Indonesia from 2005 to 2023. This study uses multiple linear regression methods, this study examines the relationship between independent variables, namely interest rates, the exchange rate of the rupiah against the United States dollar and the CPI on the dependent variable, namely yield SUN. The results showed that interest rates have a positive but insignificant effect on SUN yield or are not strong enough to be considered significant in determining the overall SUN yield. The rupiah exchange rate has a negative but significant effect on SUN yield,where the depreciation of the rupiah against the dollar tends to increase yield as compensation for exchange rate risk.Meanwhile, CPI has a negative and insignificant effect on SUN yield, indicating that although an increase in CPI, which reflects inflation, tends to be followed by a decrease in SUN yield, its influence is not strong enough to be the main factor in determining yield. These findings provide important implications for policy makers and market participants in understanding the dynamics of the Indonesian bond market and in managing national financial stability.
Co-Authors Assel, Muhammad Ridhwan Hanoeboen, Bin Raudha Arif Laitupa, Abdul Aziz Louhenapessy, Fredy H. Ramly, Amin Sapthu, Andre