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Journal : TELKOMNIKA (Telecommunication Computing Electronics and Control)

Prediction of rainfall using improved deep learning with particle swarm optimization Imam Cholissodin; Sutrisno Sutrisno
TELKOMNIKA (Telecommunication Computing Electronics and Control) Vol 18, No 5: October 2020
Publisher : Universitas Ahmad Dahlan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12928/telkomnika.v18i5.14665

Abstract

Rainfall is a natural factor that is very important for farmers or certain institutions to predict the planting period of a plant. The problem is that rainfall is very difficult to predict. Trials to get optimal rainfall prediction have been carried out by BMKG through research with variety of methods in various fields, including meteorology, climatology and geophysics. The results of the study unfortunately obtained a less optimal success rate in predicting rainfall. Today, there are many new methods for predicting events. These methods include Deep Learning (DL) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). The use of the Deep Learning method is very susceptible to initial weights that are less than optimal, so it requires a process of optimization using a metaheuristic technique, which is the PSO algorithm, because this algorithm has a level of complexity that is much lower than genetic algorithms. In this study, this method is utilized to predict rainfall by determining the exact regression equation model according to the number of layers in hidden nodes based on the size of the kernel and the weight between the layers. This research is approved achieved get more optimal rainfall prediction results that those of previous research that without optimization with PSO.
Integration Method of Local-global SVR and Parallel Time Variant PSO in Water Level Forecasting for Flood Early Warning System Arief Andy Soebroto; Imam Cholissodin; Maria Tenika Frestantiya; Ziya El Arief
TELKOMNIKA (Telecommunication Computing Electronics and Control) Vol 16, No 3: June 2018
Publisher : Universitas Ahmad Dahlan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12928/telkomnika.v16i3.6772

Abstract

Flood is one type of natural disaster that can’t be predicted, one of the main causes of flooding is the continuous rain (natural events). In terms of meteorology, the cause of flood is come from high rainfall and the high tide of the sea, resulting in increased the water level. Rainfall and water level analysis in each period, still not able to solve the existing problems. Therefore in this study, the proposed integration method of Parallel Time Variant PSO (PTVPSO) and Local-Global Support Vector Regression (SVR) is used to forecast water level. Implementation in this study combine SVR as regression method for forecast the water level, Local-Global concept take the role for the minimization for the computing time, while PTVPSO used in the SVR to obtain maximum performance and higher accurate result by optimize the parameters of SVR. Hopefully this system will be able to solve the existing problems for flood early warning system due to erratic weather.