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Dinamika Karakteristik Curah Hujan Harian Wilayah Gambut Sumatera Kaitannya dengan El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dan Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) Muhammad Irfan; Khairul Saleh; Nety Kurniawati
Jurnal Penelitian Pendidikan IPA Vol 11 No 11 (2025): November
Publisher : Postgraduate, University of Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29303/jppipa.v11i11.13324

Abstract

Sumatran peatlands constitute a highly vulnerable ecosystem strongly Sumatran peatlands are a vulnerable ecosystem highly sensitive to daily rainfall variability driven by large-scale climate modes such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). This study analyzes the frequency distribution and intensity of daily rainfall over Sumatran peatlands from 1995 to 2023 in relation to ENSO and IOD phases. Daily rainfall data from nine BMKG stations were analyzed using Probability Density Function (PDF), supported by monthly climatology and Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) spectral analysis. Results show a right-skewed rainfall distribution, with peak frequency below 20 mm/day. During El Niño and positive IOD events, the PDF shifts leftward, indicating increased dry days; during La Niña, the right tail extends, increasing extreme rainfall probability. FFT reveals dominant annual cycles and sub-seasonal signals linked to the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Spatial patterns are consistent, though inland stations show stronger responses than coastal ones. Despite the lack of seasonal stratification and formal significance testing in this preliminary analysis, findings highlight how ENSO and IOD alter rainfall risk—drought during warm phases and flooding during cold phases. These insights support the development of early warning systems and climate-informed peatland management policies
Pemodelan Numerik Hubungan Pola Curah Hujan Wilayah Equatorial di Pulau Sumatera Terhadap Fenomena ENSO dan IOD Melly Ariska; Adam Darmawan; Hamdi Akhsan; Supari Supari; Muhammad Irfan; Iskhaq Iskandar
Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Fisika Vol. 11 No. 2 (2023): Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Fisika
Publisher : Department of Physics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, University of Lampung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.23960/jtaf.v11i2.319

Abstract

Variability of Temperature Extreme Observes in Kalimantan Jamiatul Khairunnisa Putri; Suhadi; Muhammad Irfan; Hamdi Akhsan; Iskhaq Iskandar
Jurnal Penelitian Pendidikan IPA Vol 10 No 11 (2024): November
Publisher : Postgraduate, University of Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29303/jppipa.v10i11.9048

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the trend of extreme temperatures in Kalimantan over the past few decades. The data used are daily temperatures from meteorological stations in West Kalimantan, Central Kalimantan, and South Kalimantan, with an observation period of January 1985 to December 2022. The research methodology involves four main stages: data collection, extreme temperature index calculation, trend detection, and correlation analysis with ENSO and IOD. The results showed an increasing trend in extreme temperatures (warming). The increase in mean annual maximum temperature (TXmean) ranged from 0.03°C to 2°C per century, while the mean annual minimum temperature increased from 0.2°C to 0.5°C per century. Monthly maximum value of daily max temperature (TXx) the increasing trend ranged from 0.19°C to 1.7°C, monthly maximum value of daily min temperature (TNx) increased from 0.1°C to 0.5°C. The monthly mean difference between daily max and min temperature (DTR) also shows an increase of 0.5°C to 1.7°C. This trend indicates that daytime (TXmean, TXx) and nighttime (TNmean, TNx) conditions in Kalimantan, especially in West, Central, and South Kalimantan, are getting hotter, with the daytime experiencing a more significant increase in temperature. The correlation between the extreme temperature index and ENSO and IOD is negative and positive, indicating that ENSO and IOD do not fully influence the increase in extreme temperatures. These findings have important implications for disaster mitigation planning and adaptation to climate change in the Kalimantan region.
Korelasi SST, OLR Terhadap Curah Hujan di Wilayah Pesisir Timur Sumatera Amanda Kurnia Utami; Muhammad Irfan; Hamdi Akhsan
JIPFRI (Jurnal Inovasi Pendidikan Fisika dan Riset Ilmiah) Vol. 9 No. 2 (2025): November Edition
Publisher : Universitas Nurul Huda

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30599/jipfri.v9i2.4852

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the influence of sea surface temperature (SST), outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on rainfall dynamics in the peatlands of East Sumatra’s coast. Data from ERA5 (SST, OLR), BMKG (rainfall), and a calculated IOD index (1982–2024) were analyzed quantitatively using Python and Pearson correlation. Results show SST in the Indian and Pacific Oceans correlates significantly and positively with rainfall (r > 0.6; p < 0.05), confirming the dominant roles of IOD and ENSO. OLR exhibits a strong negative correlation (r < –0.7; p < 0.05), reflecting its inverse relationship with convective activity and rainfall. The IOD index is significantly correlated with rainfall variation, particularly during positive IOD events, which are linked to rainfall deficits and increased peat fire risk. This quantitative analysis provides a basis for predicting rainfall and mitigating peatland fires. 
Exploration of Seasonal Dynamics of Tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean during Dry, Wet and Neutral Years in Indonesia using Composite Method Melly Ariska; Alfin Suhanda; Suhadi Suhadi; Supari Supari; Muhammad Irfan; Iskhaq Iskandar
Jurnal Penelitian Fisika dan Aplikasinya (JPFA) Vol. 14 No. 1 (2024)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Surabaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26740/jpfa.v14n1.p67-83

Abstract

Applying rainfall data for each month from Princeton University from January 1948 to December 2016, the impact of the Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which is focused in the Indian Ocean, on rainfall in Indonesia was examined. IOD occurrences are significantly correlated with rainfall, as seen by the simultaneous association of seasonal rainfall anomalies during the peak of the rainy season (NDJ) in Indonesia's dry, wet, and neutral years, as well as other climatic indices in both climates. Rainfall has occurred in parts of South Sumatra, Java, South Kalimantan, Nusa Tenggara, Sulawesi, and East Papua. Meanwhile, ENSO events significantly correlate with rainfall in the southern regions of Sumatra, Java, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, and Papua. El Niño is associated with low sea surface temperature anomalies in the Indonesian Sea and southeast Indian Ocean. The low SST anomaly lowers the mean sea surface level (MSL). It reduces the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere, suppressing atmospheric convection in Indonesia and leading to a very sharp decrease in rainfall. Based on the forecasting and exploration of rainfall patterns in Indonesia described in this study, this research can be used as a reference for the government to prepare preventive measures against extreme global climate change events and to predict hydrometeorological disasters in disaster-prone areas.