Article Per Year (5 Year)
p-Index From 2020 - 2025
0.817
P-Index
This Author published in this journals
All Journal JURNAL MATEMATIKA STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI JURNAL PENGABDIAN KEPADA MASYARAKAT Jurnal Cendekia : Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika Jurnal Abdidas
Arnita Arnita
Universitas Negeri Medan
Arts Humanities Education Health Professions Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Mathematics Public Health Social Sciences Other

Published : 6 Documents Claim Missing Document
Claim Missing Document
Check
Articles

Found 1 Documents
Search
Journal : JURNAL MATEMATIKA STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI

 1 
Comparison of Single Exponential Smoothing, Naive Model, and SARIMA Methods for Forecasting Rainfall in Medan Arnita Arnita
Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Komputasi Vol. 17 No. 1 (2020): JMSK, SEPTEMBER, 2020
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Hasanuddin University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20956/jmsk.v17i1.10236

Abstract

This study aims to compare the best method on the forecasting system of rainfall in Medan using Single Exponential Smoothing (SES), Naive Model, and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) . The data used in this study is rainfall data for 10 years (2009 – 2019). From the simulation by comparing existing method, the best model is SES with  and value of MAPE (Mean Absolut Percentage Error) sebesar 2,47%. And then  SARIMA (1,01,1)(4,0,3)12 whit value of MAPE  is2,93%. Both of this model is high accurate model because value of MAPE resulted < 10%.  
Co-Authors DIdi Febrian Fahrur Rozi Insan Taufik Isda Pramuniati Marpaung, Faridawaty Raudah Ummu Fahda Damanik Rosmaini Sahat Saragih Sinaga, Marlina Setia Yulita Molliq