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THE RESILIENCE OF THE INDONESIAN BANKING SYSTEM AND MACROECONOMIC FLUCTUATION: ISLAMIC VERSUS CONVENTIONAL BANKING Muh. Rudi Nugroho; Ahmad Syakir Kurnia; Abdul Qoyum; Fitrotul Fardila
Journal of Islamic Monetary Economics and Finance Vol 6 No 2 (2020)
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21098/jimf.v6i2.1135

This study aims to analyze the challenges of the dual banking system during macroeconomic fluctuations. By using the default probability mapping method and macroeconomic stress testing, we can measure the stability of the financial system through credit calculation. In addition, by using the stress test method, we can find information about the characteristics of the financial system in crises and its financial-related assistance in the financial system. Considering if a financial system can detect it early, the government can take preventative measures to minimize the consequences. The results of the study show that Islamic banking has a higher default probability than conventional banking. So it can be concluded that the current stability of Islamic banking is not better than conventional banking. Our findings suggest that inflation is only a macroeconomic variable that has a high level of sensitivity to the default probability of banks. Moreover, Islamic and conventional banking have different responses to the sensitivity of inflationary interventions.

DETERMINAN INVESTASI NEGARA AMERIKA SERIKAT KE NEGARA ANGGOTA ORGANISASI KERJASAMA ISLAM TAHUN 1991-2016 Kengkeng Vebriadi; Muh Rudi Nugroho
EkBis: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Vol 2, No 2 (2018): EkBis: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Islam, UIN Sunan Kalijaga Yogyakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14421/EkBis.2018.2.2.1114

Abstract This study aims to analyze the factors that have become the motives and behavior of United States (US) outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) to four samples of member countries of Islamic Cooperation Organzation (OIC). The OFDI motives of US are classified into market seeking, efficiency seeking, and resource seeking. While OFDI behavior in US is divided into two, namely complementary to export or substitution to export. The analysis technique used is Error Correction Model (ECM). The results of this study indicate that in the long term there are known market seeking motives of US OFDI to Turkey and Malaysia. In the long term, there are known efficiency seeking motives of US OFDI to Saudi Arabia and Indonesia. In the short term, market seeking and efficiency seeking motives of US only exist in Turkey. Whereas resource seeking motives of Unite States OFDI are not found in four samples of OIC member countries both in the long term and in the short term. As for the behavior of US OFDI it is known that US in the long term and short-term complementary behavior toward US export to three samples of OIC member countries (Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, and Malaysia). On the contrary, US OFDI in the long term and short-term substitution toward the export of US to Turkey.Key words : market seeking, efficiency seeking, resource seeking, complementary and substitutionJEL Classification: F20, F21, F23 AbstrakPenelitian ini bertujuan untuk meganalisis faktor-faktor yang menjadi motif dan perilaku investasi asing langsung ke luar negeri (OFDI) Amerika Serikat ke empat sampel negara anggota Organisasi Kerjasama Islam (OKI). Motif OFDI Amerika Serikat diklasifikasikan dalam market seeking, efficiency seeking, dan resource seeking. Sedangkan perilaku OFDI Amerika Serikat dibedakan menjadi dua, yaitu komplementer terhadap ekspor atau substitusi terhadap ekspor. Teknik analisis yang digunakan adalah Error Correction Model (ECM). Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa pada jangka panjang diketahui adanya motif market seeking OFDI Amerika Serikat ke negara Turki dan Malaysia. Pada jangka panjang diketahui adanya motif efficiency seeking dari OFDI Amerika Serikat ke negara Arab Saudi dan Indonesia. Pada jangka pendek motif market seeking maupun motif efficiency seeking dari OFDI Amerika Serikat hanya ada pada negara Turki. Sedangkan motif resource seeking dari OFDI Amerika Serikat tidak ditemukan pada empat sampel negara anggota OKI baik dalam jangka panjang maupun dalam jangka pendek. Adapun mengenai perilaku dari OFDI Amerika Serikat diketahui bahwa OFDI Amerika Serikat dalam jangka panjang dan jangka pendek berperilaku komplementer terhadap ekspor Amerika Serikat ke tiga sampel negara anggota OKI (Arab Saudi, Indonesia, dan Malaysia). Sebaliknya OFDI Amerika Serikat dalam jangka panjang dan jangka pendek berperilaku substitusi terhadap ekspor Amerika Serikat ke negara Turki.Kata kunci: market seeking, efficiency seeking, resource seeking, komplementer dan substitusi.JEL Classification: F20, F21, F23

ANALISIS KINERJA EKONOMI SEBELUM DAN PADA ERA PENETAPAN KEISTIMEWAAN YOGYAKARTA Rosyid Nur Anggara Putra; Muh. Rudi Nugroho
Jurnal Penelitian Ekonomi dan Bisnis Vol 4, No 2 (2019): Jurnal Penelitian Ekonomi dan Bisnis
Publisher : Universitas Dian Nuswantoro Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33633/jpeb.v4i2.2342

ABSTRACTThis study aims to determine the level of success of economic performance before and in the era of Yogyakarta privileges determination. This study uses several relevant analytical methods to analyze economic performance. The economic performance will be observed through economic indicators and development indicators in support of the principle of the Specialties of Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta (DIY). The methods applied in this research are description of indicators to provide a description of the performance of all activities carried out before and on the appointment of privilege, paired sample t-test to analyze situations that existed before and when implemented a police and Data Panel Regression Analysis. It was concluded that the adjustment funds before the dana istimewa (danais) had given good growth to DIY. DIY growth was seen after the danais program in 2013-2015 which increased by 0.98%. This finding is in accordance with the expectations of researchers. Danais in the 2015 APBNP was recorded at 0.547 TrillionKeywords: Economic Performance, Inequality and GrowthÂ Â ABSTRAKPenelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui tingkat keberhasilan kinerja ekonomi sebelum dan pada era penetapan keistimewaan Yogyakarta. Penelitian ini menggunakan beberapa metode analisis yang relevan untuk menganalisis kinerja ekonomi. Kinerja ekonomi akan diamati melalui indikator ekonomi dan indikator pembangunan untuk mendukung prinsip Keistimewaan Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta (DIY). Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah deskripsi indikator untuk memberikan deskripsi kinerja semua kegiatan yang dilakukan sebelum dan pada penetapan keistimewaan, paired sample t-test untuk menganalisis situasi yang ada sebelum dan pada implementasi kebijakan dan Analisis Regresi Panel Data. Disimpulkan bahwa dana penyesuaian sebelum adanya danais telah memberikan pertumbuhan yang baik terhadap DIY. Pertumbuhan DIY terlihat setelah adanya program danais pada tahun 2013-2015 yang meningkat sebesar 0,98%. Temuan ini sesuai dengan harapan peneliti. Danais pada APBNP-2015 tercatat sebesar 0,547 Triliun.Kata Kunci: Kinerja Ekonomi, Ketimpangan, dan Pertumbuhan

Financial System Stability in Indonesia during The Global Financial Crisis 2007/2008: Conventional vis-à-vis Islamic Muh. Rudi Nugroho; Ibnu Qizam
Global Review of Islamic Economics and Business Vol 2, No 2 (2014)
Publisher : Faculty of Islamic Economics and Business, State Islamic University Sunan Kalijaga

This research aims to analyze the financial stability especially in dual banking system in Indonesia and discusses the role of Islamic banks in the financial stability of national banks. In addition, this study also focuses on the analysis of the determinants of financial stability namely on the national banking Industry. This research uses panel data in which combined data between time series and cross section with an observation periods are 2005:1 - 2009:1 by using an internal variable of banks and macroeconomic data. Z-score analysis will be used as main tool analysis regressed with internal variable. Empirical results obtained from this research shows that during the period of 2005:1 - 2009:1 banking financial stability, for both conventional and Islamic and categorized based on an asset scale, the movement of the Z-score value is different. From the Z-score values analysis shows that Islamic banks are the most stable bank with a trend increased sharply when compared with other banks, namely conventional couterparts. If viewed from each category, small conventional banks more stable than small Islamic banks, and there are declining trend in 2005:1 to 2009:1. Whereas for large and middle conventional banks the trend of the Z-score movement are in the same patterns. This study also founds that the determinant of the banking stability can be seen from two sides namely bank's internal factors and macroeconomic factors. Internal factors consist of: Income Diversity (ID), Credit or Financing (Loan), Total Assets (TA), Operational Cost (Cost), Cost Income (CI), Loan Asset (LA), Current Liability (CL), Cash to Current Liabilities (CCL), Capital Bank (MDL). While macroeconomic factors consist of: inflation, BI Rate, Exchange Rate, Composite Index (JCI), the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This research also examined the extent to which the role of Islamic banks and the global financial crisis to the financial stability of national banking. This analysis shows that the global financial crisis and Islamic banks affect significantly to the financial stability of banking industries in Indonesia.

The Effectiveness of Banking Countercyclical Policies in the Development of Priority Economic Sectors in Indonesia Muh Rudi Nugroho; Akhmad Syakir Kurnia
Global Review of Islamic Economics and Business Vol 9, No 1 (2021)
Publisher : Faculty of Islamic Economics and Business, State Islamic University Sunan Kalijaga

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14421/grieb.2021.091-01

Economic development leads to the evolution and improvement of the financial system. In particular, banks grew relatively larger than national output in line with economic developments. This study aims to analyze how banking policy can cause multiplier effects for the macroeconomic sector and be able to reduce the procyclicality of the banking sector with economic growth that touches the aspect of reverse causality. To answer this concern, many international forums approved the formation of documents one of which includes macroprudential aspects by developing countercyclical capital buffer (CCB) indicators that function to monitor the level of procyclicality of the financial system. The research period used is quarterly data from 2010Q1 to 2019Q4. The analytical tool used is structural vector autoregression (SVAR). Based on the results of the impulse response function, all macroeconomic variables used in this study, namely real GDP, inflation, investment, and the exchange rate respond negatively to CCB policies in conventional banks, Islamic banks, and both. The biggest contribution of the three bank models is to the investment variable. Based on the results of sector mapping, it was found that the direction of the development of Indonesia's priority sectors was in the secondary sector or business fields related to the processing industry, such as both food and beverage, clothing and textiles, and chemicals. Public and foreign public confidence in the products of the processing industry in Indonesia is certainly inseparable from the guarantee of certainty in doing business and investment security that will increase the flow of private capital, especially foreign direct investment. This investment security guarantee is an effect of good financial capital liquidity.

Kuznetâ€™s Hypothesis and Ibn Khaldunâ€™s Socio-Economic Dimensions Isnan Indriati; Muh Rudi Nugroho
Shirkah: Journal of Economics and Business Vol. 4 No. 1 (2019)
Publisher : Universitas Islam Negeri Raden Mas Said Surakarta

This study aims to prove the relationship between the hypothesis of Kuznets and Ibn Khaldun's socio economic dimension and income inequality. The object employed in this study is five municipal districts in Yogyakarta with the highest value of inequality throughout Java. This research utilizes the data panel which is a combination of annual time series of data from 2004-2017 and cross section of data from the five municipal districts in Yogyakarta. In this study, dynamic data panel regression is performed with the Generalized Method Moment (GMM) Arellano Bond. The relationship of the economic dimension of Ibn Khaldun and income inequality has been used to calculate income inequality Theil Entropy index which is being the dependent variable, and other variables as proxy for each dimension in Ibn Khaldun's socio-economic dimension models. The result of this study indicates that the linkage between Kuznets's hypothesis and Ibn Khaldun's socio-economic dimensions is similar since the economic growth shows insignificant variable resulted in both models.Â Keywords: Kuznets hypothesis, Ibn Khaldun's socio-economic dimensions, Entropy Theil Index, Generalized Moment Method (GMM) Arellano Bond.

DESIGN PATTERNS OF WOMEN EMPOWERING MSMEs THROUGH FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT PLANNING AND REPORTING AND UTILIZATION OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY Rosyid Nur Anggara Putra; Muh. Rudi Nugroho; Alif Khuwarizmi Maulana Julendra; Alif Miftahul Fahmi
Journal of Islamic Economy and Community Engagement Vol. 2 No. 2 (2021)
Publisher : Journal of Islamic Economy and Community Engagement

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

This study aims to develop a training pattern design to improve the ability of MSME actors in running their businesses. The first is to design financial planning and reporting in Patukgawemulyo Village, Mirit District, Kebumen Regency; Identify priorities for developing MSME actors in Patukgawemulyo Village, Mirit District, Kebumen Regency in fulfilling the family economy. Formulating a training pattern for female MSME actors in planning and compiling financial reports in Patukgawemulyo Village, Mirit District, Kebumen Regency. The implementation of this research uses the participatory action research (PAR) method, while the pattern is that the planning and financial reporting of MSME actors in Patukgawemulyo Village, Mirit District, Kebumen Regency is still done manually and mixes personal needs with business, so it is difficult to know the real condition of the business whether it is profitable or not. loss, the priority of developing MSME actors in Patukgawemulyo Village, Mirit District, Kebumen Regency based on the analysis is that administrative arrangements are carried out both manually and using information technology; The pattern of training for MSME actors in planning and compiling financial reports in Patukgawemulyo Village, Mirit District, Kebumen Regency begins with basic accounting equations, and can also take advantage of information technology assistance in preparing financial reports.

The Impact of Monetary Policy Transmission on Economic Growth in Sumatra Island Dina Octaviani; Muh. Rudi Nugroho
Moneter: Jurnal Keuangan dan Perbankan Vol. 14 No. 1 (2026): APRIL
Publisher : Universitas Ibn Khladun Bogor

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32832/moneter.v14i1.2693

This study aims to analyze the effect of monetary policy transmission channels on economic growth across all provinces in Sumatra Island from 2015 to 2025. The variables examined include the BI Rate (X1), Inflation (X2), Money Supply (X3), and Exchange Rate (X4), with Economic Growth (Y) as the dependent variable. Utilizing quarterly secondary panel data sourced from Bank Indonesia and the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS), this study employs a Panel Data Regression approach. Based on the Chow and Hausman tests, the Fixed Effect Model (FEM) was selected as the best estimation model. The results of the partial analysis (t-test) show that the BI Rate has a significant positive effect on economic growth, while the Money Supply has a significant negative effect. Conversely, Inflation and the Exchange Rate do not show any significant impact on economic growth in Sumatra. Simultaneously (F-test), all independent variables significantly influence economic growth. The Adjusted R-squared value indicates that the monetary variables simultaneously explain 14.74% of the variation in economic growth, while the remaining 85.26% is explained by other factors outside the model.

The Shift in Money Recognition in Indonesia: The Impact of Inflation, Interest Rates, and Innovation in Digital Payment Systems May Husnul Khotimah; Muh. Rudi Nugroho
Moneter: Jurnal Keuangan dan Perbankan Vol. 14 No. 1 (2026): APRIL
Publisher : Universitas Ibn Khladun Bogor

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32832/moneter.v14i1.2969

This study estimates the dynamics of money demand in Indonesia by integrating inflation, interest rates, and electronic money (e-money). Utilizing the Error Correction Model (ECM), this research analyzes both long-run and short-run dynamics, emphasizing the role of digitalization. The results indicate that in the long run, inflation, interest rates, and e-money exert positive and significant effects on money demand. Higher inflation drives transaction-driven liquidity, while the positive impact of interest rates reflects a precautionary motive amid economic uncertainty. Additionally, e-money complements physical currency by accelerating the velocity of money. Conversely, the short-run ECM estimations show no significant effects, confirming an adaptation lag to macroeconomic and technological changes before reaching equilibrium. Overall, long-term transactions and digital payments remain the primary drivers of money demand. Therefore, monetary authorities must maintain price and interest rate stability while strengthening digital payment infrastructure to support national economic stability.

Acceleration of the Banking Sector and Economic Growth: Effectiveness of Economic Recovery Strategies Post-Covid-19 Muh Rudi Nugroho; Siti Rokhaniyah
Global Review of Islamic Economics and Business Vol. 12 No. 1 (2024)
Publisher : Faculty of Islamic Economics and Business, State Islamic University Sunan Kalijaga

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14421/grieb.2024.121-01

The banking sector around the world is under great pressure due to the current state of the Covid-19. This study investigates how Covid-19 impacts systemic risk in the banking sector across all types of banking lines affected by Covid-19. This study found that all banking lines experienced a significant increase in systemic risk among the types of banking that were sampled initially. By using spillover policies, it is also possible to identify institutions that are systemically important. The analysis was performed using Panel Data Regression, SVAR, and FEVD on individual bank data and macroeconomic data. The findings proved that government policies to drive the business cycle and MSME actors in the context of overcoming the impact of Covid-19, have not shown their effectiveness. This is indicated by the negative response of economic growth to the policies that have been issued. On the other hand, the performance of banking financial institutions also contributes to national economic growth. This is indicated by the sensitivity of the bank's internal variables in responding to national economic growth. Likewise, with the response to government policies and macroeconomic conditions. Therefore, there is a need for an acceleration policy in handling the current national economic recovery.Originality/Value: This paper focus on systematic risk in banking during COVID-19, use of advanced econometric techniques, evaluation of government policies, integration of bank performance and macroeconomic growth, and its assessment of policy effectiveness, and its implications for future economic recovery efforts.

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