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All Journal ETIKONOMI Economic Journal of Emerging Markets JURNAL DINAMIKA EKONOMI PEMBANGUNAN JURNAL BISNIS STRATEGI Diponegoro Journal of Economics JEJAK Journal of Economics, Business, & Accountancy Ventura Global Review of Islamic Economics and Business Jurnal Ilmu Sosial dan Ilmu Politik Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Indicators : Journal of Economic and Business Beujroh : Jurnal Pemberdayaan dan Pengabdian pada Masyarakat Economic Development Analysis Journal Efficient: Indonesian Journal of Development Economics Economic and Business Horizon

Akhmad Syakir Kurnia

Department Of Economics, Faculty Of Economics And Business, Diponegoro University, Semarang, Indonesia

Author-ID : 3076235

Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Arts Humanities Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Environmental Science Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Social Sciences Other

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Forestry Sector Impact on the Economy of Central Java, Indonesia Firmansyah, Firmansyah; Kurnia, Akhmad Syakir; Oktavilia, Shanty; Prayogi, Ryan
JEJAK: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Vol 12, No 1 (2019): March 2019
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/jejak.v12i1.18575

In 2016, the forestry sector produced a Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) of Rp. 3.8 trillion or around 0.45% of the total GRDP of the province of Central Java, Indonesia (BPS Central Java, 2017). The Forestry Sector growth has increased, but the role of the sector shows a downward trend in GRDP. By employing the Input-Output analysis, this study intends to identify the structure of the Central Java forestry sector, through backward and forward linkages and mapping the path of the impact of the forestry sector's economic activities through simulations, toward the economy and sectoral income levels in Central Java. This study finds that the forestry sector is intermediate ouput that is used by other sectors to become their production inputs, so this sector has a good multiplier for the economy.

MENGUKUR EFISIENSI INTERMEDIASI SEBELAS BANK TERBESAR INDONESIA DENGAN PENDEKATAN DATA ENVELOPMENT ANALYSIS (DEA) Kurnia, Akhmad Syakir
JURNAL BISNIS STRATEGI Vol 13, No 2 (2004): Desember
Publisher : Magister Manajemen, Fakultas Ekonomika dan Bisnis Undip

Bank Efficiency has been an important issue in the process of Indonesia's banking recovery after facing banking crisis. In most of the transition countries such Indonesia the relative comparison of banks by size, type of ownership has at some point been an issue. How good it is to let new banks enter the market? Should the state owned banks be sold to public or foreigners? Do small banks have future in the era of globalization? How good the intermediation function has been done by banks? These, and other questionscontinue to dominate discussions of Indonesia 's banking sector. In this paper I analyze efficiency of eleven largest banks in Indonesia using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). DEA is a methodology for analyzing relativeefficiency and managerial performance of productive units having same multiple inputs and multiple outputs. It allows us to compare relative efficiency of banks by determining the efficient banks, which span the frontier. The most important advantage of DEA over traditional econometric frontier studies is that it is a non parametric, deterministic method and therefore doses not require a priori assumptions about the analytical form of the production function. Therefore the probability of misspecification of the production technology is zero. The disadvantage is that, being a non parametric method, it is more sensitive to possible mismeasurement problems.I measured relative efficiency of eleven largest banks in Indonesia according to their size and type of ownership. Eleven largest banks in Indonesia dominate over 60% of banking sector. I found that in 2002, no state owned banks reached efficient, three of six largest private owned banks reached efficient frontier and Citibank as one and only foreign owned banks reached efficient. In 2003, only one of four state owned bank reached efficient. Three of six private owned banks reached efficient. Citibank still reached efficient. Based on this result, type of ownership appears to have correlation with efficiency. Foreign owned bank is the most efficient, and that state owned banks are the less efficient. Private owned banks are in the middle. Only fifty percent of private owned banks reached efficient.

MODEL PENGUKURAN KINERJA DAN EFISIENSI SEKTOR PUBLIK DENGAN METODE FREE DISPOSABLE HULL (FDH) Kurnia, Akhmad Syakir
JURNAL BISNIS STRATEGI Vol 15, No 1 (2006): Juli
Publisher : Magister Manajemen, Fakultas Ekonomika dan Bisnis Undip

Improved efficiency is the main effect expected from fiscal decentralization. It could be gained on the presumptions that local governments are much better in identifying and fulfilling local public preferences, since they are closer to them, and in mobilizing and using local resources to pay for goods and services having purely local impacts. Once improved efficiency could be gained, public sector performance increase. I developed a model to measure public sector efficiency (PSE) and public sector performance (PSP). I compute public sector performance (PSP) and Public Sector Effociency (PSE) indicators comprising a composite consists of five sub-indicators. The first two indicators reflects socio-economic indicators that take into account education and health outcomes. Three other indicators reflect the standard "musgravian" task for government: a/location, distribution and stabilisation. Then, the model is applied to measure public sector performance and efficiency of Kabupaten/Kota in Central Java Province.

FENOMENA KURVA J PADA NERACA PERDAGANGAN INDONESIA DENGAN ENAM NEGARA MITRA DAGANG UTAMA hapsari, anggraeni tri; Kurnia, Akhmad Syakir
JURNAL DINAMIKA EKONOMI PEMBANGUNAN Vol 1, No 2 (2018): Agustus
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomika dan Bisnis, Universitas Diponegoro

Whether a J curve phenomenon exists or not on the balance of trade has been an interest for empirical investigation in international economics. The phenomenon is typically associated with the response of the balance of trade to the exchange rate dynamics. Since a country has different trade features with different trading partners, the trade balances adjustment to the exchange rate dynamics should be seen as a head to head phenomenon. This paper investigates the effect of real effective exchange rate (REER) on the bilateral trade balance between Indonesia and its six major trading partners, namely Japan, China, Singapore, United States, South Korea and India on a quarterly basis over the period 1995.1 to 2013.4. The short run and the long run effect of the REER on the balance of trade is expected to be captured using error correction model (ECM) and vector error correction model (VECM). Subsequently, impulse response function is used to trace out the behavior of the bilateral trade balance in response to the REER shock whereas forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD) is used to decay the effect of innovation variables in the system. The result indicates that in the long run a J curve phenomenon appears on the bilateral trade balance between Indonesia and Japan, China, Singapore as well as South Korea. In the short run, a J curve phenomenon is seen on the bilateral trade balance between Indonesia and China as well as Singapore. This confirms that a J curve is a head to head phenomenon that has correlation with the trade features. Thus, the correction mechanism to the trade balance in response to the exchange rate shock (i.e. exchange rate market intervention) should count trade features as a consideration

ANALYSIS GLOBAL BUSINESS CYCLE AND FISCAL RISKS : An Empirical Study of ASEAN-5 Aulia, Sarah; Kurnia, Akhmad Syakir
JURNAL DINAMIKA EKONOMI PEMBANGUNAN Vol 1, No 1 (2018): April
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomika dan Bisnis, Universitas Diponegoro

This thesis aims to analyze global business cycle and fiscal risk in ASEAN-5 which is expected to be explained by several explanatory variables including primary balance/GDP, oil price, economic growth, output gap, and LIBOR interest rate. More spesifically, this thesis focus on the effect of oil price with Debt/GDP is a benchmark ofÂ fiscal risk. This research used panel data of ASEAN-5 period 2000-2014. Prior to conducting the analysis, this study looked at the correlation coefficients between the cycle components (output gap) and the primary balance per GDP to identify the fiscal policy character in each country. The cycle component is calculated by using the difference between original series and trend components using Hodrick Prescott Filter. The fiscal policy characteristics of Indonesia, Malaysia, Phillipines, and Thailand apply procyclical policies while singapore implements countercyclical fiscal policy.Â The results of the analysis conducted using the fixed effect method show the global business cycle and world oil price fluctuations affect the fiscal risks. The results of this study indicate when the business cycle in a state of booming domestic governments tend to increase government spending and create fiscal risks. Meanwhile, the LIBOR and Primary Balance rate per GDP which is a variable derivative of the fiscal suistanability concept has an effect on fiscal risk. However, economic growth has no effect because the current debt is the tax burden in the future.

Model Pengukuran Kinerja dan Efisiensi Sektor Publik Metode Free Disposable Hull (FDH) Akhmad Syakir Kurnia
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Volume 11 Issue 1, 2006
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.v11i1.567

Improved efficiency is the main effect expected from fiscal decentralization. Im¬proved efficiency could be gained on the presumptions that local governments are much better in identifying and fulfilling the needs of households, since they are closer to them, and in mobilizing and using local resources to pay for goods and services having purely local impacts. Once, improved efficiency could be gained, public sector performance increases.I developed a model to measure public sector efficiency (PSE) and public sector performance (PSP). I compute public sector performance (PSP) and Public Sector Effo¬ciency (PSE) indicators comprising a composite and five sub-indicators for Regen¬cy/municipolity in Central Java Province. The first two indicators reflects socio-economic indicators that take into account education and health outcomes. Three other indicators re¬flect the standard “musgravian” task for government: allocation, distribution and stabilisa¬tion. Keywords: Fiscal Decentralization, Public Sector Efficiency (PSE), Public Sector Perform¬ance (PSP), Free Disposable Hull (FDH).

Analisis Interdependensi Neraca Transaksi Berjalan – Neraca Modal Indonesia Pendekatan Model Vector Autoregressive dan Vector Error Correction 1981.1 – 2002.3 Akhmad Syakir Kurnia
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Vol. 10 No. 1 (2005)
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.v10i1.605

This paper analyze interrelations between current account and capital account of Indonesia based on quarterly data from 1981.1 to 2002.3. Indonesias’ Current Account defi¬cit had been financed by huge capital inflows. A positive net capital inflow implies a higher stock of financial claims by the rest of the world against the resident and hence larger profit remittances and dividend and/or interest payments in the future.Johansen Cointegration test applied in this analysis shows that there is a cointe¬gration between current account and capital account with one cointegration equation. The result is consistence with Granger causality test, which shows that there is a bilateral cau¬sality between them. Through Bivariate Vector Autoregressive (VAR), it also could be seen that positive net capital inflows will cause deficit pressure on current account at first, third, fifth, and seventh quarter in the future (one-quarter break). Impulse Response Analysis also shows that positive net capital inflow will cause deficit pressure on current account one-quarter break after. But response of current account to the capital shock will not cause per¬manent impact on the current account. Current account will response to the capital shock till eleventh quarter after shock. After that, it will be back to its’ long term equilibrium. Through the analysis of variance decomposition, it could be seen that the response of current account to the shock is mostly caused by the shock of current account itself. Based on vector error correction model (VECM), there is short term and long term adjustment processes. The speed of adjustment of current account towards its long term equilibrium, shown by the coefficient of ECT is 36.05% per quarter, but that of capital ac¬count is faster, 109.9% per quarter (shorter than one quarter).This research concludes that there is interdependence between current account and capital account. Positive net capital inflows could be a major cause of current account defi¬cits in the future, so stabilizing of balance of payment has also come to include stabilizing of capital account.Keywords: Current Account, Capital Account, Balance of Payments, Vector Autoregressive (VAR), Impulse Response Analysis, Variance Decompositions, Cointegrations, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM).

Capital Account Liberalization and Income Inequality: A Panel Study of 28 European Countries Muhammad Taufik Radhianshah; Akhmad Syakir Kurnia
Journal of Economics, Business, & Accountancy Ventura Vol 24, No 1 (2021): April - July 2021
Publisher : Universitas Hayam Wuruk Perbanas

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14414/jebav.v24i1.2530

Financial globalization has evolved from domestic policy to international scope policy. One of its form is capital liberalization which we can observe from the declining number of restrictions among countries for cross-border financial transaction, and the increasing level of capital flow between countries. Europe cross-country financial transaction has been increasing for the last three decades and this increase happened simultaneously with the increase of income inequality as measured with Gini index. This condition gives impression that there is a positive correlation between income inequality and capital account liberalization. This research aims to study whether income inequality corresponds to the increase of capital account liberalization in 28 Europe countries. Furthermore, this research seeks to understand the role of institutional quality and financial depth as threshold variables. By employing System GMM Estimator on balanced panel data, this study finds that capital account liberalization positively correlated with income inequality and institutional quality proven to be important threshold variable. These findings emphasize the urgency for policy maker to consider institutional quality before or during the implementation of capital account liberalization.

The Effectiveness of Banking Countercyclical Policies in the Development of Priority Economic Sectors in Indonesia Muh Rudi Nugroho; Akhmad Syakir Kurnia
Global Review of Islamic Economics and Business Vol 9, No 1 (2021)
Publisher : Faculty of Islamic Economics and Business, State Islamic University Sunan Kalijaga

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14421/grieb.2021.091-01

Economic development leads to the evolution and improvement of the financial system. In particular, banks grew relatively larger than national output in line with economic developments. This study aims to analyze how banking policy can cause multiplier effects for the macroeconomic sector and be able to reduce the procyclicality of the banking sector with economic growth that touches the aspect of reverse causality. To answer this concern, many international forums approved the formation of documents one of which includes macroprudential aspects by developing countercyclical capital buffer (CCB) indicators that function to monitor the level of procyclicality of the financial system. The research period used is quarterly data from 2010Q1 to 2019Q4. The analytical tool used is structural vector autoregression (SVAR). Based on the results of the impulse response function, all macroeconomic variables used in this study, namely real GDP, inflation, investment, and the exchange rate respond negatively to CCB policies in conventional banks, Islamic banks, and both. The biggest contribution of the three bank models is to the investment variable. Based on the results of sector mapping, it was found that the direction of the development of Indonesia's priority sectors was in the secondary sector or business fields related to the processing industry, such as both food and beverage, clothing and textiles, and chemicals. Public and foreign public confidence in the products of the processing industry in Indonesia is certainly inseparable from the guarantee of certainty in doing business and investment security that will increase the flow of private capital, especially foreign direct investment. This investment security guarantee is an effect of good financial capital liquidity.

Incumbents' Behavior and Strategic Interactions Among Local Governments: The Case of Indonesia Akhmad Syakir Kurnia; Syahid Izzulhaq; Sandy J. Maulana
Jurnal Ilmu Sosial dan Ilmu Politik Vol 25, No 3 (2022): March
Publisher : Faculty of Social and Political Sciences, Universitas Gadjah Mada

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22146/jsp.67694

This paper investigates Yardstick Competition among local governments in decentralized Indonesia by distinguishing bad from good incumbent behavior. By doing so, this paper provides a more explicit connection between theoretical foundation and empirical investigation, where political incumbency is viewed based on the political economy perspective. Given that voters can compare and benchmark their incumbent's performance, an incumbent who aims for the throne twice must consider neighboring local governments' performance as the reference, leading to strategic interaction across local governments. We conduct empirical examinations using Two-regime Spatial Econometrics for panel data consisting of 99 local governments in the West, Central, and East Java Provinces from 2010 to 2017. Our empirical estimation results confirm that mimicking behavior by bad incumbents, characterized by the underperformed public sector, is evident. Bad incumbents mimic their neighbor's public spending. However, we find no evidence of Yardstick Competition by incumbents in general.

Co-Authors AA Sudharmawan, AA Achmad Noerkhaerin Putra Ariza Fuadi Astuti, Ismadiyanti Purwaning Aulia, Sarah Caroline Caroline Caroline Caroline Etty Puji Lestari Firmansyah Firmansyah Firmansyah FX Sugiyanto hapsari, anggraeni tri Imantria, Benny Khoirul Sukma Lea Widowati Sugiharto Muh. Rudi Nugroho, Muh. Rudi Muhammad Adnan Assidiq Muhammad Taufik Radhianshah Nurul Qolbi Sandy J. Maulana Shanty Oktavilia Soni Agus Irwandi Sugiyanto, Franciscus Xaverius Syahid Izzulhaq Syifa Fauziah Tutus Kenanthus Avica Putra Zusak, M Bastomi Fahri

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