Neisyafitri, Rendayu Jonda
Department Of Agro-Industrial Technology, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta, Indonesia

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The Use of Intervention Approach in Individual and Aggregate Forecasting Methods for Burger Patties: A Case in Indonesia Rendayu Jonda Neisyafitri; Pornthipa Ongkunaruk
AGRARIS: Journal of Agribusiness and Rural Development Research Vol 8, No 1: January-June 2022
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (13.677 KB) | DOI: 10.18196/agraris.v8i1.12842

Abstract

The Indonesian beef consumption increases sharply during Ramadan and made a difference between supply and demand. The research aimed to study the demand pattern of burger patties and determine a suitable forecasting method compared between quantitative and intervention forecasting methods. The actual demand was intervened by experts based on reasons such as supply shortage, holidays, promotion, and government projects. The daily sales of burger patties were collected for a year. Then, the data were divided into training and testing data. Later, time-series forecasting was performed by software. Then, the best forecasting method for daily data was selected between Individual forecasting and Top-Down forecasting. Similarly, for weekly data, the best forecasting method was compared between aggregate forecasting and Bottom-Up forecasting. Then, repeat the process for the intervened sales data. The result revealed that the mean absolute percentage error was improved after intervention by about 3.64%-58.83%. The combination of quantitative and qualitative approaches improved forecast accuracy. In addition, the aggregate level or weekly sales forecast had higher forecast accuracy than the disaggregated level. The Bottom-Up forecast performs better than the aggregate forecast. Hence, we recommended the company plans based on weekly data and implement Every Low Price to reduce the demand fluctuation.
Standardization Efforts for Ayam Goreng Kalasan Industry Cluster Through a Partnership Between the University and Local Government to Maintain its Local Wisdom Sukartiko, Anggoro Cahyo; Supartono, Wahyu; Zaidir, Zaidir; Neisyafitri, Rendayu Jonda; Setiyono, Rahmat
Jurnal Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat (Indonesian Journal of Community Engagement) Vol 10, No 3 (2024): September
Publisher : Direktorat Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat Universitas Gadjah Mada

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22146/jpkm.90990

Abstract

A community service partnership is carried out between a university and a local government to standardize processes and products produced by the Ayam Goreng Kalasan industry cluster. Efforts are made through a series of focused discussion activities, knowledge sharing, and material provision, as well as training and mentoring on aspects of standardization, product diversification,and promotion toward marketing with a broader scope. The first three stages were carried out with the involvement of local government. The results of the community service implementation were measured using a comparison of knowledge of business actors before and after the implementation of the activities. A total of 31 business actors, as members of the Ayam Goreng Kalasan Maju Makmur industry cluster, have participated in this activity. Increased knowledge is observed in all aspects: standardization, diversification, management, and marketing. The collaboration between the university and the local government, therefore, can increase the participation of business actors, accelerate the required standardization and certification process, and further increase the possibility of sustainability of cluster business development.