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All Journal PROSIDING SEMINAR NASIONAL Media Statistika SAINS DAN MATEMATIKA Jurnal Gaussian Jurnal Statistika Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang E-Dimas: Jurnal Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat Seminar Nasional Variansi (Venue Artikulasi-Riset, Inovasi, Resonansi-Teori, dan Aplikasi Statistika) EKO-REGIONAL JURNAL PENGEMBANGAN EKONOMI WILAYAH

Abdul Hoyyi

Departemen Statistika, Fakultas Sains Dan Matematika, Universitas Diponegoro

Author-ID : 3131506

Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Mathematics Social Sciences Other

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ANALISIS KEPUASAN DAN LOYALITAS PELANGGAN DALAM PEMESANAN TIKET PESAWAT SECARA ONLINE MENGGUNAKAN PENDEKATAN PARTIAL LEAST SQUARE (PLS) Trisnawati Gusnawita Berutu; Abdul Hoyyi; Sugito Sugito
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 7, No 4 (2018): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14710/j.gauss.v7i4.28863

Technology advances are bring rapid changes, thus bringing the world to the information society. From this technological progress thus e-commerce emerged, as a means to meet the needs of goods and services through internet access (online). This is what the airlines utilized by cooperating with various internet service providers (online), to provide convenience and comfort of airplane passengers in buying tickets without having to come directly to the place and through intermediaries. To provide the best service, need to know what factors that influence customer satisfaction in ordering airline tickets online. Appropriate modeling for this problem using structural equation modeling, with Partial Least Square (PLS) approach. The PLS approach is chosen because it is not based on several assumptions, one of these is the normal multivariate assumption. In this research, the exogenous latent variables used are performance, access, security, sensation, information, and web design, while the endogenous latent variables are satisfaction and loyalty. Based on the results of the analysis it can be concluded that the latent variables of access, security, sensation, information, and web design are able to explain the latent satisfaction variable of 70.32% while the satisfaction latent variable is able to explain the latent variable of loyalty by 36.02%.

PENDEKATAN METODE SERVQUAL DAN KLASTER FUZZY K-MEANS UNTUK MENGANALISIS INDEKS KEPUASAN NASABAH BANK X Dewi Erliana; Mustafid Mustafid; Abdul Hoyyi
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 3, No 3 (2014): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Servqual (service quality) is a method for measuring the service quality of each dimension attribute. Servqual dimensions include tangibles, empathy, responsiveness, reliability, and assurance. Cluster analysis is a technique for classifying objects that have the same characteristics in a relatively homogeneous group. One method of cluster is Fuzzy k-Means (FKM). Classification object with FkM, the existence each data point in a cluster is determined by the degree of membership. Determination of the optimum number of clusters using the accuracy measure Xie Beni index (XB). XB index calculation depends on the objective function or distance data to each cluster center, the distance between the center of the cluster, and weighted (fuzzifier). Based on the optimum number of clusters, then will be calculated percentage of Customer Satisfaction Index (CSI). This research is based on a case Bank X customers through questionnaires of customer satisfaction based on the servqual dimension. Result of the research showed the optimum number of cluster 4 and weight 1.1. Customers in cluster 1 was 84.36 % very satisfied with most of the service quality Bank X. Customer in cluster 2 was 72.79 % satisfied, but they think there was nothing more conspicuous of service quality in Bank X. Customer in cluster 3 are satisfied with the value of 77.66 % satisfaction primarily to the ease in submitting a complaint.

METODE LENTH PADA RANCANGAN FAKTORIAL FRAKSIONAL 3^(k-p) DENGAN ESTIMASI EFEK ALGORITMA YATES Mutiara Ardin Rifkiani; Rita Rahmawati; Abdul Hoyyi
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 4, No 4 (2015): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Factorial design often is used in experiments on various fields to identify the influence of main factors and interaction factors to respons were observed. A design which has k factors with three levels for each factor called factorial design. For a large number of factors, fractional factorial design is an effective alternative because it has less combination of treatment than factorial design, but it still has important needed information. In experiments conducted without repetition, determining factors that influence towards response is difficult to be analyzed if using analysis of variance. It was due to the the average of squared error absence, where error variance estimation is based on the variability of the data obtained from repeated observations. To overcome this, we use Lenth Method to identify the factors that affect the response. Lenth method uses the value of the statistic margin of error (ME) test for the main factor, and simultaneous margin of error (SME) for the interaction factor. The calculation of the statistic test ME and SME values are based on the estimated effects of each treatment. Yates algorithm is used to calculate the effect’s estimation for each treatment. To clarify the discussion about this matery is given an example of fractional factorial design application with 27 experiments on combustion boiler. The results indicate that treatment factors are influenced towards the response are , , , dan . Keywords: three-level fractional factorial, factorial without replication, Lenth Methods, Yates Algorithm

STRUCTURAL VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE UNTUK ANALISIS DAMPAK SHOCK NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH TERHADAP DOLAR AMERIKA SERIKAT PADA INDEKS HARGA SAHAM GABUNGAN Annisa Rahmawati; Di Asih I Maruddani; Abdul Hoyyi
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 6, No 3 (2017): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Instability and depreciation of the rupiah be a motivating factor for investors to pull out a portfolio in Indonesia. The weakening of rupiah led to a decline in investor demand for stocks. Measurement of stock price fluctuations or portfolio using the Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI). The exchange rate and CSPI is a sensitive macroeconomic variables affected by shock and it takes restriction of macroeconomic structural model. Based on this, Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model is used. The purpose of this thesis is to analyze the impact of the exchange rate shock on CSPI through the description of Structural Impulse Response Function and Structural Variance Decomposition modeling based on a restriction on SVAR. SVAR also called the theoretical VAR used to respond to criticism on the VAR model where necessary the introduction of restrictions on economic models. By using daily data exchange rate of the rupiah against the US dollar and CSPI from January 2013 to December 2016 acquired the VAR model is stable and meets the white noise assumption as the basis for modeling residual SVAR and has a short-term restriction. The response of CSPI from the impact of the shock rupiah exchange rate is likely to experience an increase, while the response to the shock CSPI itself is fluctuating but tends to decrease. Patterns proportion shock effect on the exchange rate is increasingly rising stock index in the period of time, whereas the effect of the shock CSPI itself getting down on each period of time. Keywords : exchange rate, CSPI, SVAR, Structural Impulse Response Function, Structural Variance Decomposition

PEMODELAN KURS RUPIAH TERHADAP DOLLAR AMERIKA SERIKAT MENGGUNAKAN REGRESI PENALIZED SPLINE BERBASIS RADIAL Kartikaningtiyas Hanunggraheni Saputri; Suparti Suparti; Abdul Hoyyi
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 4, No 3 (2015): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Exchange rate is the price of a currency from a country that is measured or expressed in another country's currency. A country's currency exchange rate has fluctuated due to exchange rate determined by the demand and supply of the currency. One of method that can be used to predict the exchange rate is the classical time series analysis (parametric). However, the data exchange rate that fluctuates often do not fulfill the parametric assumptions. Alternative used in this research is penalized spline regression which is nonparametric regression and not related to the assumption of regression curves. Penalized spline regression is obtained by minimizing the function Penalized Least Square (PLS). To handle the numerical instability and changing data then used radial basis at Penalized spline estimator. Selection of the optimal models is rely heavily on determining the optimal lambda and optimal knot point that is based on the Generalized Cross Validation (GCV) minimum. Using data daily exchange rate of the rupiah against the US dollar in the period of June 2, 2014 until February 27, 2015, the optimal penalized spline bases on radial model in this study is when using 2 order and 13 knots point, those points are 11625; 11669; 11728; 11795; 11911; 11974; 12069; 12118; 12161; 12372; 12452; 12550; 12667 with GCV = 3904.8.Keywords: exchange rate, penalized spline, radial bases, penalized least square, generalized cross validation

KLASIFIKASI PERUBAHAN HARGA OBLIGASI KORPORASI DI INDONESIA MENGGUNAKAN METODE NAIVE BAYES CLASSIFICATION Khotimatus Sholihah; Di Asih I Maruddani; Abdul Hoyyi
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 5, No 2 (2016): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Bond is a medium-long term debt securities which can be sold and contains a pledge from the issuer to pay interest for a certain period and repayment of the principal debt at a specified time to the bonds buyer. Bonds price changes any time, it could be beneficial or give disadvantage to investors. Investors should know the best conditions to buy bonds on a discount, or sell them at a premium price. By classify the changing of bonds price, it could help investors to gain optimum return. One method is Naive Bayes classification. In theory, It has the minimum error rate in comparison to all other classifiers. Bayes is a simple probabilistic-based prediction technique which based on the application of Bayes theorem with strong independence assumptions. Before classifying, preprocessing data is required as a stage feature selection. In this case, the Mann Whitney test can be done to choose the independent features of each class. Validation technique in use is k-fold cross validation. Based on analysis, we gained average accuracy at 78,52% and 21,8% error. With high accuracy and quite low error, it means that the Naïve Bayes method works quite well on classifying the corporate bonds price changes in Indonesia. Keywords: bonds, classification, k-fold cross validation, Naive Bayes

VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE STABILITY CONDITION CHECK UNTUK PEMODELAN DAN PREDIKSI SUMBER PENERIMAAN PABEAN BELAWAN Mia Anastasia Sinulingga; Di Asih I Maruddani; Abdul Hoyyi
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 9, No 2 (2020): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Customs Intermediate are an institution that is responsible for regulating the flow of export and import trade activities in the Customs Area with the revenue coming from import duties and export duties. The time series data from the customs acceptance component import dan export which have a relationship between variables. Vector Autoregressive is a statistical method used in predicting and evaluating interrelationships between variables. The purpose of this study is to obtain a model for predicting import and export by using the VAR model and detecting the stability of the model. Model requirements are said to be stable if all modulus values from roots characteristic of coefficient matrices ≤ 1 that the predicted results can be verified. The data is divided into in sample data starting from January 2010 to June 2018 and out sample data starts from July 2018 until December 2018. The results of data analysis in this study, the model obtained for prediction is the VAR model (4) and there is a direct relationship between both variables. The VAR (4) residual model fulfills the assumption of white noise, while the assumption of multivariate normality is not fulfilled. Based on out sample the value of MAPE for import variables 18.42%, export 12.94% shows the VAR model (4) has good predictive capabilities that can be used for predicting future periods. Predicted results on import show fluctuations during the period of January to December 2019 while in the export shows increase during the period of January to December 2019.

PENDEKATAN SISTEM PERSAMAAN SIMULTAN DALAM PEMODELAN PRODUK DOMESTIK REGIONAL BRUTO (PDRB) PROPINSI JAWA TENGAH TAHUN 2000-2010 Rizky Oky Ari Satrio; Tatik Widiharih; Abdul Hoyyi
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 1, No 1 (2012): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is general indicator used to identify the economical development in a region. The condition of economy in Central Java Province is categorized as stable condition since it has GDP value developed rapidly year by year. Refer to model used by Bappenas,the simultaneous equation model between GDP is influenced by number of employee and government spending.Identification of the model in this study using the ordercondition of indetification on the basis of the result of the overidentified taken the GDP of agriculture, mining, electricity, gas and water sector and trade. Therefore, the parameter evaluation used is 2SLS method (Two Stage Least Square). After fulfilled assumption of independent, identical and normal distribution, the most valued toward model of GDP in Central Java Province is GDP sector of agriculture.

ANALISIS PEMBENTUKAN PORTOFOLIO OPTIMAL SAHAM DENGAN PENDEKATAN OPTIMISASI MULTIOBJEKTIF UNTUK PENGUKURAN VALUE AT RISK Fiki Farkhati; Abdul Hoyyi; Yuciana Wilandari
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 3, No 3 (2014): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14710/j.gauss.v3i3.6448

Mean Variance Efficient Portfolio (MVEP) is theory of portfolio which purposed to standard investor because approach has only one objective that minimize portfolio risk. Portfolio with multi-objective optimization that simultaneously maximize portfolio return and minimize portfolio risk with various weighting coefficient k represents risk aversion index. The purpose of this research is analyze proportion each stock in order that is formed optimal portfolio approach multi-objective optimization and analyze expected return and risk that suitable with preference investor. This research is based on cases stocks ASII, TLKM, SMGR, UNVR and LPKR. As a specific example investment Rp 50.000.000,00 in 20 days with 95% degree of confidence. Optimal portfolio for risk seeker investor is portfolio with k = 0,01 with expected profit Rp 1.547.392,00 and risk estimation Rp 33.832.562,00. Optimal portfolio for risk indifference investor is portfolio with 1 ≤ k ≤ 100 with expected profit Rp 965.678,00 until Rp 1.435.038,00 and risk estimation Rp 19.500.464,00 until Rp 25.513.351,00. Optimal portfolio for risk averse investor is portfolio with k = 10000 with expected return Rp 950.414,00 and risk estimation Rp 19.495.116,00.

ANALISIS SISTEM ANTRIAN PESAWAT TERBANG DI BANDARA INTERNASIONAL AHMAD YANI SEMARANG Anggit Ratnakusuma; Abdul Hoyyi; Sugito Sugito
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 4, No 4 (2015): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Long queuing is not expected by anyone, because it’s taking much time and tiresome. However, this situation is not avoidable in public area, for example Ahmad Yani International Airport Semarang. Aircraft queuing that will take off and landed resulted in increasing of the queuing of passengers to aboard. The suitable queuing system model for Ahmad Yani Internasional Airport Semarang to solve its air traffic is using (M/M/6):(GD/∞/∞), with six aprons as server of reguler commercial flight. Moreover, based on the result of system performance measure, service system in Ahmad Yani Internasional Airport Semarang report is good enough. The result of system performance measure said that average number of aircraft in the system (Ls) was 1,0716 aircraft per hour, average number of aircraft in the queue (Lq) was 0,0002 aircraft per hour, average time aircraft spends in the system (Ws) was 0,4977 from an hour, and average time aircraft spends in the queue (Wq) was 0,0001 from an hour. The simulation showed that by using four operating server or adding two more arrival additionals in every hour, the service system is quite effective. Keywords: Queuing System Model, Ahmad Yani International Airport Semarang

Co-Authors Abdurakhman Abdurakhman Afifah Alrizqi Agus Rusgiyono Agus Somantri Ahmat Dhani Riau Bahtiyar Alan Prahutama Alan Prahutama Alifah Zahlevi Allima Stefiana Insani Alvi Waldira Alwi Assegaf Amelia Crystine Anggit Ratnakusuma Anggita, Esta Dewi Anik Nurul Aini Annisa Intan Mayasari ANNISA RAHMAWATI Ari Fakhrus Sanny Arief Rachman Hakim Arya Huda Arrasyid Aulia Desy Deria Avia Enggar Tyasti Bella Cynthia Devi Besya Salsabilla Azani Arif Bisri Merluarini Bitoria Rosa Niashinta Budi Warsito Budi Warsito Candra Silvia Chyntia Arum Widyastusti Cindy Wahyu Elvitra Darwanto Darwanto Dea Manuella Widodo Deby Fakhriyana, Deby Dede Zumrohtuliyosi Deden Aditya Nanda, Deden Aditya Dedi Rosadi Dermawanti Dermawanti Desriwendi Desriwendi Dewi Erliana Dewi Setya Kusumawardani Dhea Kurnia Mubyarjati Di Asih I Maruddani Di Asih I Maruddani Di Asih I Maruddani Diah Safitri Diah Safitri Diah Wulandari Dilla Retno Deswita Dwi Ispriyanti DWI RAHMAWATI Emyria Natalia br Sembiring Endah Cahyaningrum Erna Musri Arlita Esti Pratiwi Faiqotul Himmah Fiki Farkhati Firda Dinny Islami Fitra Ramdhani Gayuh Kresnawati Hasbi Yasin Hasbi Yasin Henny Setyowati Herwindhito Dwi Putranto Ikha Rizky Ramadani Indri Puspitasari Irfan Afifi Isowedha Widya Dewi Issabella Marsasella Christy Jeffri Nelwin J. O. Siburian Juli Sekar Sari, Juli Sekar Kartikaningtiyas Hanunggraheni Saputri Khotimatus Sholihah Khusnul Umi Fatimah Kiki Febri Azriati Koko Arie Bowo Kristika Safitri Kumo Ratih Leni Pamularsih Maidiah Dwi Naruri Saida Malik Hakam Mega Fitria Andriyani Mega Fitria Andriyani Mia Anastasia Sinulingga Moch. Abdul Hoyyi Moch. Abdul Mukid Moch. Abdul Mukid MUHAMMAD HARIS Mustafid Mustafid Mustafid Mustafid Mutiara Ardin Rifkiani Nadya Kiki Aulia Nandang Fahmi Jalaludin Malik Novika Pratnyaningrum Nurissalma Alivia Putri Nurul Fauziah Ovie Auliya’atul Faizah Priska Rialita Hardani Purina Pakurnia Artiguna Rita Rachmawati Rita Rahmawati Rita Rahmawati Rizki Pradipto Widyantomo Rizky Oky Ari Satrio Rukun Santoso Saputri, Ani Funtika Saraswati, Mei Sita Shaumal Luqman Silvia Nur Rinjani SITI NURLATIFAH Sudarno Sudarno Sudarno Sudarno Sugito - Sugito Sugito Sugito Sugito Suparti Suparti Suparti Suparti Tarno Tarno Tarno Tarno Tatik Widiharih Tatik Widiharih Tatik Widiharih Titis Nur Utami Tresno Sayekti Nuryanto Triastuti Wuryandari Triastuti Wuryandari Trisnawati Gusnawita Berutu Ubudia Hiliaily Chairunnnisa Ulfah Sulistyowati Yosi Dhyas Monica Yuciana Wilandari Yuciana Wilandari Yudia Yustine Yunisa Ratna Resti Yustian Dwi Saputra

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