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All Journal PROSIDING SEMINAR NASIONAL Media Statistika SAINS DAN MATEMATIKA Jurnal Gaussian Jurnal Statistika Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang E-Dimas: Jurnal Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat Seminar Nasional Variansi (Venue Artikulasi-Riset, Inovasi, Resonansi-Teori, dan Aplikasi Statistika) EKO-REGIONAL JURNAL PENGEMBANGAN EKONOMI WILAYAH

Abdul Hoyyi

Departemen Statistika, Fakultas Sains Dan Matematika, Universitas Diponegoro

Author-ID : 3131506

Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Mathematics Social Sciences Other

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ORDINARY KRIGING DALAM ESTIMASI CURAH HUJAN DI KOTA SEMARANG Ahmat Dhani Riau Bahtiyar; Abdul Hoyyi; Hasbi Yasin
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 3, No 2 (2014): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

In a measurement of rainfall data, not all points are gauges because of a limitation. Given these limitations, a method is needed to estimate a value for points that are not measurable. Kriging as geostatistical analysis used in the estimation of a value in a point which is not sampled based sample points in the surrounding areas by taking into account the spatial correlation using a spatial weighting, where the correlation is shown by the variogram. Ordinary Kriging is the most widely used. By using the experimental variogram were compared with some theoretical variogram (Exponential, Gaussian, Spherical) selected one of the best semivariogram models to estimate the value that want to find. In this study, conducted rainfall estimates in Semarang in February where the result obtained is the value of rainfall each district and village

RISIKO KREDIT PORTOFOLIO OBLIGASI DENGAN CREDIT METRICS DAN OPTIMALISASI PORTOFOLIO DENGAN METODE MEAN VARIANCE EFFICIENT PORTFOLIO (MVEP) Nurul Fauziah; Abdul Hoyyi; Di Asih I Maruddani
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 1, No 1 (2012): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Investing is a important thing in a capital market. Bond investment must be noticed the risk especially credit risk. From the information of credit risk, investor can choose the right investment. Credit Metrics is a reduced form model to estimate the risk. Credit Metrics is centered by the corporate rating. The risk not only occur when corporate rating be default but also if the rating upgrade or downgrade. For a bond portfolio, can calculate the optimal portfolio by Mean Variance Efficient Portfolio method. Empirical study can be used for two bonds, first bond is Obligasi Adira Dinamika Multi Finance V Tahun 2011 Seri A and second one is Obligasi BFI Finance Indonesia III Tahun 2011 Seri A. First bond has 127.01640 (Billion) of credit risk and the second one bonds has 18.33472 (Billion). For a portfolio of that two bonds, they have 179.82460 (Billion). For the optimal portfolio, first bond has propotion 66.39% and 33.61% for the second bond.

PENDEKATAN MODEL FUNGSI TRANSFER MULTI INPUT UNTUK ANALISIS HUBUNGAN ANTARA LUAS PANEN DAN LUAS TAMBAH TANAM DENGAN PRODUKSI BAWANG MERAH DI JAWA TENGAH Yunisa Ratna Resti; Abdul Hoyyi; Rita Rahmawati
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 4, No 3 (2015): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Onion is one of holticulture commoditie which is consumed by many Indonesians with Central Java as its largest producer. The consumer’s need of onion keeps raising but, unfortunately, its number in the marketplace is limited. The onion supply depend on onion’s production which is affected by some factors, such as the land condition from the beginning when cultivation is started until the harvesting come such as area of harvesting and area of additional cultivation. So that onion’s production modeling which influenced by significant factores is needed to predict the crops volume in the future. Data which is used to production modeling are data of onion’s production in Jawa Tengah, these data is written by Dinas Pertanian Tanaman Pangan dan Hortikultura Jawa Tengah in everymonth. This research use multiple input transfer function model, which is an integration of ARIMA and regression model. This reseach aimed at modelling output series of onion production using two input series, i.e. area of harvesting and area of additional cultivation, from January 2004 to November 2014. The result showed that there is a significant correlation between area of harvesting and onion production, starting from lag t=0 during two periods, as well as area of additional cultivation toward the production from lag t=0. This multiple input transfer function method resulted in AIC valued at 3088.484. Keywords: Multiple Input Transfer Function, Onion

PEMODELAN PERSENTASE BALITA GIZI BURUK DI JAWA TENGAH DENGAN PENDEKATAN GEOGRAPHICALLY WEIGHTED REGRESSION PRINCIPAL COMPONENTS ANALYSIS (GWRPCA) Novika Pratnyaningrum; Hasbi Yasin; Abdul Hoyyi
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 4, No 2 (2015): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Geographically Weighted Regression Principal Components Analysis (GWRPCA) is a combination of method of Principal Components Analysis (PCA) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR). PCA is used to eliminate the multicollinearity effect in regression analysis. GWR is a local form of regression and a statistical method used to analyze the spatial data. In GWRPCA predictor variables is a principal components of the PCA result. Estimates of parameters of the GWRPCA model can use Weighted Least Square (WLS). Selection of the optimum bandwidth use Cross Validation (CV) method. Conformance testing PCA regression and GWRPCA models approximated by the F distribution, while the partial identification of the model parameters using the t distribution. In PCA obtained variables that affect the percentage of severe children malnutrition in Central Java in 2012 can be represented or replaced with PC1 and PC2 which can explain the total variance of data is 78.43%. Application GWRPCA models at the percentage of severe children malnutrition in Central Java in 2012 showed every regency locations have different model with global coefficient of determination is 0.6313309 and the largest local coefficient of determination is 0.72793026 present in Batang regency, while the smallest local coefficient of determination is 0.03519539 present in Sukoharjo regency. Keywords : Severe Malnutrition, Multicollinearity, Geographically Weighted Regression Principal Components Analysis, Weighted Least Square,Coefficient of Determination.

KETEPATAN KLASIFIKASI TINGKAT KEPARAHAN KORBAN KECELAKAAN LALU LINTAS MENGGUNAKAN METODE REGRESI LOGISTIK ORDINAL DAN FUZZY K-NEAREST NEIGHBOR IN EVERY CLASS Candra Silvia; Yuciana Wilandari; Abdul Hoyyi
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 4, No 3 (2015): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Traffic accident is an accidental event on the road involving vehicles with or without another road users which causes damage for the victims. Semarang has quite high number of traffic accidents, which in 2014 occured 801 cases of traffic accidents. Based on the government regulation number 43 of 1993 about highway infrastructure and traffic, the impact of traffic accidents can be classified based on victims conditions such as minor injuries, serious injuries, and died. In this research will discuss about the accuracy of severity traffic accidents victim classification in Semarang in 2014 using Ordinal Logistic Regression method and Fuzzy K-Nearest Neighbor in Every Class (FK-NNC). The result of Ordinal Logistic Regression method analysis produces the accuracy of classification value is 90,5405%, meanwhile Fuzzy K-Nearest Neighbor in Every Class method produces the accuracy of classification method is 89,19%. Keywords: Traffic accidents, Ordinal Logistic Regression, Fuzzy K-Nearest Neighbor in Every Class

ANALISIS TEKNIKAL SAHAM DENGAN INDIKATOR GABUNGAN WEIGHTED MOVING AVERAGE DAN STOCHASTIC OSCILLATOR Yustian Dwi Saputra; Di Asih I Maruddani; Abdul hoyyi
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 8, No 1 (2019): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

The Stochastic Oscillator which is one of the leading indicators has the disadvantage of opening the gap for false signals. To minimize false signals, the smoothing process is carried out using the Moving Average. Stochastic Oscillator is usually combined with SMA (Simple Moving Average). But SMA has the disadvantage of giving the same weight to all data, even though in reality the data that best reflects the next value is the last data. This makes the basis of weighting the WMA (Weighted Moving Average) method.This study aims to test the combination of Stochastic Oscillator with SMA and WMA and use the best combination to predict the trends that will occur and trading decisions taken from the results of these predictions. The research samples were ANTM, BBRI, and GIAA stocks from November 9 2015 to November 9, 2018.The results show a combination of Stochastic Oscillator and WMA is a better combination of predictions than Stochastic Oscillator and SMA because it has a smaller MSE value. Based on the comparison of signal accuracy based on Overbought and Oversold, the best period of combination of Stochastic Oscillator and WMA is period 25. From the predicted trend that will occur with a combination of Stochastic Oscillator and WMA period 25 a decision is made to buy shares for ANTM shares, sell shares for BBRI shares, and waiting for a buy signal for GIAA shares.Keywords: Stochastic Oscillator, SMA, WMA, Predictions, Trends

PENDUGAAN ANGKA PUTUS SEKOLAH DI KABUPATEN SEMARANG DENGAN METODE PREDIKSI TAK BIAS LINIER TERBAIK EMPIRIK PADA MODEL PENDUGAAN AREA KECIL Nandang Fahmi Jalaludin Malik; Abdul Hoyyi; Dwi Ispriyanti
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 3, No 1 (2014): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Nowadays, small area information that has a small sample size is needed. A direct estimation in the small area will produce a large variance of values. In order of that, another alternative is needed that can be used is the indirect estimation. Small area estimation is an indirect estimation method that can be used to estimate parameters in a small area by utilizing information from outside the area, from the area itself, and from outside the survey. One of the methods that can be used is the empirical best linear unbiased prediction (EBLUP). EBLUP will be used to estimate the dropout rate for each village in the district of Semarang. Additional information used in this EBLUP method are the number of educational facilities, population, average expenditure per capita and distance from village to district. The results of EBLUP estimation showed that the lowest dropout rate village is Beji village and the highest is Pledokan village. Indirect estimation with EBLUP methods for the case of dropout rate in the district of Semarang has a coefficient variance 0,598% smaller than the coefficient variance that obtained from direct estimation

OPTIMALISASI PROSES PRODUKSI YANG MELIBATKAN BEBERAPA FAKTOR DENGAN LEVEL YANG BERBEDA MENGGUNAKAN METODE TAGUCHI Annisa Intan Mayasari; Triastuti Wuryandari; Abdul Hoyyi
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 3, No 3 (2014): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Taguchi method is a method that purposes to improve the quality of products and processes at the same time with the purpose of reducing costs and resources to a minimum. Taguchi method is one example of a fractional factorial design that uses orthogonal arrays to reduce the number of experiments. The analytical tool used was ANOVA and Signal to Noise Ratio. ANOVA was used to determine the factors that affect the response and Signal to Noise Ratio are used to determine the combination of factors that affect the performance of the product so that the resulting optimal response. Based on the results of tests performed to determine the factors that influence the design of electronic circuits that will produce the center frequency of 35.75 megahertz at a temperature of -10 ℃, the significant factor is the factor A, B, C, D, F, and H. The best combination is obtained A2, B2, C2, D3, F2, dan H3. Factor F has the greatest percent contribution is 42.57%, the next factor D, H, C, A, and B, respectively 8.83%, 7.37%, 5.93%, 3.90% and 3.84%.

PENERAPAN FORMULA BENEISH M-SCORE DAN ANALISIS DISKRIMINAN LINIER UNTUK KLASIFIKASI PERUSAHAAN MANIPULATOR DAN NON-MANIPULATOR (Studi Kasus Di Bursa Efek Indonesia Tahun 2013) Issabella Marsasella Christy; Sugito Sugito; Abdul Hoyyi
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 4, No 2 (2015): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Discriminant analysis is a statistical analysis method is used to classify an individual into a certain group which has determined based on the independent variables. In linear discriminant analysis, there are two assumptions to be fulfilled i.e. independent variables have to be multivariate normal distributed and variance covariance matrix of the observed two groups are the same. In this graduating paper is applied Beneish M-Score formula and linier discriminant analysis for classification of cases companies manipulators and non-manipulators are listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange in 2013. Linear discriminant function to continue Beneish M-Score formula to predict the classification, in order to obtain the percentage of fault classification, to determine the size of the performance of linear discriminant function. Percentage of classification error of 2,70 percent. Keywords: Beneish M-Score, Linear Discriminant Analysis

ANALISIS KEPUASAN MASYARAKAT TERHADAPPELAYANAN PUBLIK MENGGUNAKAN PENDEKATANPARTIAL LEAST SQUARE (PLS) (Studi Kasus: Badan Arsip dan Perpustakaan Daerah Provinsi Jawa Tengah) Emyria Natalia br Sembiring; Abdul Hoyyi; Rukun Santoso
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 6, No 3 (2017): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Public service in Indonesia has grown into a strategic policy issue. The implementation of public services in the field of library is intended to provide library services to the public quickly, precisely and accurately. This research aims to analyze the effect between service quality, collection quality, employee performance, user needs (community) on community satisfaction and its implications for community loyalty or interest in library utilization. The use of SEM based covariance with parametric assumption that research variable must fulfill normal multivariate distribution assumption. However, the research variables do not meet the assumptions of normality then used Partial Least Square (PLS). The research was conducted at the Regional Library of Central Java Province. The method of testing instrument used SPSS Software 22.00 and hypothesis testing using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) by SmartPLS 3.00 software. Characteristics of respondents are women (65,5%), age 21-25 years (53,5%), and job as student (69,5%). The results showed that the variable quality of service, collection quality, and community give a positive and significant effect, while employee performance variable gives positive effect but not significant to the satisfaction of society. The variable of satisfaction has a positive and significant effect on community loyalty. Keywords: Public Service, Library, Partial Least Square (PLS)

Co-Authors Abdurakhman Abdurakhman Afifah Alrizqi Agus Rusgiyono Agus Somantri Ahmat Dhani Riau Bahtiyar Alan Prahutama Alan Prahutama Alifah Zahlevi Allima Stefiana Insani Alvi Waldira Alwi Assegaf Amelia Crystine Anggit Ratnakusuma Anggita, Esta Dewi Anik Nurul Aini Annisa Intan Mayasari ANNISA RAHMAWATI Ari Fakhrus Sanny Arief Rachman Hakim Arya Huda Arrasyid Aulia Desy Deria Avia Enggar Tyasti Bella Cynthia Devi Besya Salsabilla Azani Arif Bisri Merluarini Bitoria Rosa Niashinta Budi Warsito Budi Warsito Candra Silvia Chyntia Arum Widyastusti Cindy Wahyu Elvitra Darwanto Darwanto Dea Manuella Widodo Deby Fakhriyana, Deby Dede Zumrohtuliyosi Deden Aditya Nanda, Deden Aditya Dedi Rosadi Dermawanti Dermawanti Desriwendi Desriwendi Dewi Erliana Dewi Setya Kusumawardani Dhea Kurnia Mubyarjati Di Asih I Maruddani Di Asih I Maruddani Di Asih I Maruddani Diah Safitri Diah Safitri Diah Wulandari Dilla Retno Deswita Dwi Ispriyanti DWI RAHMAWATI Emyria Natalia br Sembiring Endah Cahyaningrum Erna Musri Arlita Esti Pratiwi Faiqotul Himmah Fiki Farkhati Firda Dinny Islami Fitra Ramdhani Gayuh Kresnawati Hasbi Yasin Hasbi Yasin Henny Setyowati Herwindhito Dwi Putranto Ikha Rizky Ramadani Indri Puspitasari Irfan Afifi Isowedha Widya Dewi Issabella Marsasella Christy Jeffri Nelwin J. O. Siburian Juli Sekar Sari, Juli Sekar Kartikaningtiyas Hanunggraheni Saputri Khotimatus Sholihah Khusnul Umi Fatimah Kiki Febri Azriati Koko Arie Bowo Kristika Safitri Kumo Ratih Leni Pamularsih Maidiah Dwi Naruri Saida Malik Hakam Mega Fitria Andriyani Mega Fitria Andriyani Mia Anastasia Sinulingga Moch. Abdul Hoyyi Moch. Abdul Mukid Moch. Abdul Mukid MUHAMMAD HARIS Mustafid Mustafid Mustafid Mustafid Mutiara Ardin Rifkiani Nadya Kiki Aulia Nandang Fahmi Jalaludin Malik Novika Pratnyaningrum Nurissalma Alivia Putri Nurul Fauziah Ovie Auliya’atul Faizah Priska Rialita Hardani Purina Pakurnia Artiguna Rita Rachmawati Rita Rahmawati Rita Rahmawati Rizki Pradipto Widyantomo Rizky Oky Ari Satrio Rukun Santoso Saputri, Ani Funtika Saraswati, Mei Sita Shaumal Luqman Silvia Nur Rinjani SITI NURLATIFAH Sudarno Sudarno Sudarno Sudarno Sugito - Sugito Sugito Sugito Sugito Suparti Suparti Suparti Suparti Tarno Tarno Tarno Tarno Tatik Widiharih Tatik Widiharih Tatik Widiharih Titis Nur Utami Tresno Sayekti Nuryanto Triastuti Wuryandari Triastuti Wuryandari Trisnawati Gusnawita Berutu Ubudia Hiliaily Chairunnnisa Ulfah Sulistyowati Yosi Dhyas Monica Yuciana Wilandari Yuciana Wilandari Yudia Yustine Yunisa Ratna Resti Yustian Dwi Saputra

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