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All Journal Jurnal Matematika Sains dan Teknologi Jurnal Statistika dan Aplikasinya Xplore: Journal of Statistics

Akbar Rizki

Department Of Statistics, IPB University, Indonesia

Author-ID : 3379361

Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Engineering Mathematics Social Sciences Other

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Penggerombolan Hasil Ujian Nasional Menggunakan K-Rataan Samar Nouval Habibie; Akbar Rizki; Pika Silvianti
Xplore: Journal of Statistics Vol. 10 No. 1 (2021)
Publisher : Department of Statistics, IPB

National examination scores can be a basis for the government to make a mapping of education quality in order to increase it. The mapping can be done by using fuzzy cluster analysis. The objective of this experiment is to cluster districts/cities in Indonesia based on national examination score in natural and social science in 2014/2015 until 2017/2018 school year by using the fuzzy c-means method. The evaluation criteria that will be used are the standard deviation ratio, silhouette coefficient, and Xie Beni index. The best cluster size is two clusters, A and B. The clustering result shows cluster A has a higher mean from each subject than cluster B. Therefore, cluster A will be categorized as good, whereas cluster B as bad. The proportion of districts/cities that belong to cluster A decreased each year. The final cluster result can be determined by the mean of its degree of membership from those four school years. The analysis results show that the distribution of education quality is dominated in Java Island and squatter cities. East Nusa Tenggara, West Sulawesi, Central Sulawesi, and North Kalimantan donâ€™t have any districts/cities belong to cluster A.

IDENTIFIKASI FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMENGARUHI PRESTASI MAHASISWA PROGRAM SARJANA DI INSTITUT PERTANIAN BOGOR MENGGUNAKAN METODE CHAID Ragsa Endahas Ahmad; Akbar Rizki; Mohammad Masjkur
Xplore: Journal of Statistics Vol. 11 No. 2 (2022):
Publisher : Department of Statistics, IPB

IPB University (IPB) is one of the best universities in Indonesia, based on the Ministry of Education and Culture (Kemendikbud) clustering in 2020. As the best university, IPB requires efforts to improve the quality of its education. One of these efforts is to improve student achievement. This study aims to identify the factors that influence the competition and non-competition achievements of undergraduate students at IPB. The data used are achievement data (academic year 2016/2017 to 2020/2021) from the Directorate of Student Affairs and Career Development (Ditmawa) of IPB and demographic data of undergraduate level IPB students (entry year 2016/2017 to 2019/2020) from the Directorate of Administration and Education (Dit-Ap) IPB. The analytical method used in this study is the Chi-square Automatic Interaction Detection (CHAID) classification method. There was an imbalance of data on the Student Achievement response variable. Therefore, in this study, unbalanced data handling was also carried out by resampling in the form of oversampling, undersampling, and over-undersampling methods. The results showed that the classification using CHAID analysis with resampling in the form of oversampling with a balance accuracy of 73.7% resulted in the best classification performance. The factors that influence student achievement are 11 variables, and the 3 most influential variables are variables of year of admission, department, and last GPA.

Perbandingan Perbandingan Pengklasifikasian Metode Support Vector Machine dan Random Forest (Kasus Perusahaan Kebun Kelapa Sawit) Nabila Destyana Achmad; Agus M Soleh; Akbar Rizki
Xplore: Journal of Statistics Vol. 11 No. 2 (2022):
Publisher : Department of Statistics, IPB

Palm oil is one of the leading commodities that support the economy in Indonesia. One of the companies engaged in the oil palm plantation sector has 146 units of oil palm plantations. It is very important to optimize oil palm production, so it is necessary to classify the status of plantation units. Classification aims to predict new plantation units and find the most important variables in the modeling process. The variables used were the status of the garden as a response variable and nine explanatory variables, namely harvested area, rainfall, percentage of normal fruit, fresh fruit bunches production, oil palm loose fruits, production, harvest job performance, harvesting rotation, and farmers. The classification process is carried out using the Support Vector Machine and Random Forest methods to find which method is the best. The data is divided into 80% training data and 20% test data with ten iterations so that ten models are produced for each method. Comparing accuracy value, F1 score, and Area Under Curve (AUC) to evaluate the model. The modeling results show that the random forest method has better performance than the SVM method. The random forest has an average occuracy, F1 score, and AUC, respectively, 90%, 86%, and 89%. Variables of harvest job performance, oil palm loose fruits, harvested area, rainfall, and harvesting rotation are important variables that contribute more than 10% of the model. The results of the research are used for the evaluation and development process of oil palm companies by taking into account the result of important variables that affect productivity and predictive results of new plantation units.

Penerapan Metode Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity untuk Peramalan Harga Minyak Mentah Dunia Putri Zainal; Yenni Angraini; Akbar Rizki
Xplore: Journal of Statistics Vol. 12 No. 1 (2023): Vol. 12 No. 1 (2023)
Publisher : Department of Statistics, IPB

Crude oil is one of the commodities that are needed in various fields. World crude oil prices that continue to fluctuate, of course, have a big influence on the country's economy. Crude oil price data collected is time series or the collection process is carried out from time to time with monthly periods. Therefore, we need a system that can forecast future world crude oil prices which are expected to be taken into consideration by the government for decision making. One method that can be used to predict world crude oil prices is ARIMA (Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average) and GARCH (Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) model. After modeling, it is proven that the world crude oil price data for the period January 2002 to June 2022 has a heteroscedasticity effect that cannot be overcome if only using the ARIMA model. The results of data processing show that the ARIMA (0,1,2) followed by the ARCH (2) is the best model with a MAPE value of 5,32%. The accuracy values obtained are classifield as very good for forecasting world crude oil prices.

Aplikasi Model ARIMA dalam Peramalan Data Harga Emas Dunia Tahun 2010-2022 Mohammad Abror Gustiansyah; Akbar Rizki; Berliana Apriyanti; Kenia Maulidia; Raffael Julio Roger Roa; Oksi Al Hadi; Nabila Ghoni Trisno Hidayatulloh; Wiwik Andriyani Lestari Ningsih; Andika Putri Ratnasari; Yenni Angraini
Jurnal Statistika dan Aplikasinya Vol 7 No 1 (2023): Jurnal Statistika dan Aplikasinya
Publisher : Program Studi Statistika FMIPA UNJ

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21009/JSA.07108

Gold investment is one of the favorite investments during the Covid-19 pandemic because the price of gold is relatively volatile but shows an increasing trend. Savvy investors investing in gold need to be able to predict future opportunities. Therefore, price estimation is needed to develop a buying and selling strategy to maximize profits. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model is a suitable method for predicting time series data, so the best ARIMA model will be applied for forecasting world gold prices. The best ARIMA model is selected based on the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) criteria. Monthly world gold price data for 146 periods are applied in this study and will be used to predict gold prices for the following six periods. ARIMA (0,1,1) is the best model obtained from the analysis results, with AIC and MAPE values of 1264.731 and 11.972%, respectively. Forecasting results show that world gold prices will increase for the next periods.

Identifying Factors Influencing the Number of Diarrhea Cases in Children Under Five in West Java Using Negative Binomial Regression Akbar Rizki; Utami Dyah Syafitri; Christin Halim
Jurnal Matematika Sains dan Teknologi Vol. 25 No. 1 (2024)
Publisher : LPPM Universitas Terbuka

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33830/jmst.v25i1.7582.2024

The WHO states that diarrhea is the leading killer of children under five worldwide, and Indonesia is no exception, where 10.3% of under-five deaths are caused by diarrhea. West Java Province, with the largest population in Indonesia, has the highest diarrhea cases under five. The potential for diarrhea to become an extraordinary event, which is often accompanied by death, is very likely to occur because diarrhea is an endemic disease in West Java. Therefore, analyzing the factors influencing the children under five diarrhea cases in West Java is essential. Negative binomial regression was used in this study because the response was to count data on the incidence of diarrhea in children under five in West Java. The analysis results show that an increase in the percentage of public premises (PPP) meeting health requirements and population density per km2 will increase the number of diarrhea cases under five in West Java. However, an increase in the percentage of Community-Based Total Sanitation (CBTS), percentage of the population living in poverty, and percentage of households practicing Clean and Healthy Behavior (CHB) will decrease the number of diarrhea cases in West Java.

Co-Authors Agus M Soleh Andika Putri Ratnasari Berliana Apriyanti Christin Halim Kenia Maulidia Mohammad Abror Gustiansyah Mohammad Masjkur Nabila Destyana Achmad Nabila Ghoni Trisno Hidayatulloh Nouval Habibie Oksi Al Hadi Pika Silvianti Putri Zainal Raffael Julio Roger Roa Ragsa Endahas Ahmad Utami Dyah Syafitri Windyana Pusparani Wiwik Andriyani Lestari Ningsih Yenni Angraini

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