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Journal : Engineering, Mathematics and Computer Science Journal (EMACS)

Forecasting Poverty Ratios in Indonesia: A Time Series Modeling Approach Hidayat, Muhammad Fadlan; Henryka, Diva Nabila; Citra, Lovina Anabelle; Permai, Syarifah Diana
Engineering, MAthematics and Computer Science Journal (EMACS) Vol. 6 No. 3 (2024): EMACS
Publisher : Bina Nusantara University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21512/emacsjournal.v6i3.11968

Abstract

Poverty is one of the main problems still faced by Indonesia today. To help find the right solution, an annual prediction of the poverty rate in Indonesia is needed. This study uses data on the 'Ratio of the Number of Poor People in Indonesia per year from 1998 to 2023' obtained from data.worldbank.org. The prediction methods used in this study include the Naïve Model, Double Moving Average, Double Exponential Smoothing, ARIMA, Time Series Regression, and Neural Network, with a total of 26 models. Of the 26 models, only 19 models passed the model comparison stage. Based on the evaluation results using the RMSE, MAE, MAPE, and MDAE metrics, it was concluded that the NNETAR Neural Network model showed the best performance among the six methods used to predict the poverty ratio in Indonesia.
Binary Classification of Asthma for the CAPS Pediatric Dataset in Malawi Using Machine Learning Sodiq, Jaffarus; Syarifah Diana Permai
Engineering, MAthematics and Computer Science Journal (EMACS) Vol. 7 No. 3 (2025): EMACS
Publisher : Bina Nusantara University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21512/emacsjournal.v7i3.14108

Abstract

Childhood asthma poses a significant public health challenge, especially in low- and middle-income countries. An early intervention is essential for effective management and improved prevention of Childhood asthma. This study aims to develop a predictive model for childhood asthma by applying machine learning (ML) techniques. The dataset includes self-reported information on respiratory symptoms, anthropometric measurements, spirometry data, and personal carbon monoxide (CO) exposure among children aged 6–8 years in rural Malawi. We employed a supervised ML approach, focusing on classification algorithms and handling imbalanced outcomes, including Random Forest, Logistic Regression, and XGBoost. Additionally, this study applied the Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique (SMOTE), creating synthetic samples of the minority class to balance the distribution of the outcome variable in the training data. Data preprocessing involved handling missing values, feature selection, and normalization to ensure data quality and model performance. Model evaluation was conducted using cross-validation and performance metrics, including precision, recall, and F1-score. Among the evaluated models, Logistic Regression emerged as the most balanced approach, offering strong precision and the highest F1-score while maintaining a reasonable recall rate. This balance reduces the likelihood of overdiagnosis while still capturing a significant proportion of true positives, making it suitable for early screening applications. Moreover, Logistic regression, with its simple mathematical structure, provides more transparency and explainability, which are vital for clinical adoption and gaining practitioner trust.