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All Journal Ekonomi Bisnis Trikonomika: Jurnal Ekonomi Gadjah Mada International Journal of Business Jurnal Ekonomi dan Studi Pembangunan (Journal of Economics and Development Studies) Masyarakat, Kebudayaan dan Politik Kritis Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan Jurnal Jendela Inovasi Daerah Bina Ekonomi: Majalah Ilmiah Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Katolik Parahyangan Jurnal Studi Ekonomi dan Pembangunan
Yulius Pratomo
Universitas Kristen Satya Wacana
Arts Humanities Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Environmental Science Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Public Health Social Sciences Other

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THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON THE EXPORT–ECONOMIC GROWTH RELATIONSHIP IN INDONESIA, 2019-2020 Pratomo, Yulius
Jurnal Studi Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Vol 3, No 3 (2025): VOLUME 3, NOMOR 3, DESEMBER 2025
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37905/jsep.v3i3.35008

Abstract

This study examines the moderating effect of the Covid-19 pandemic on the relationship between exports and economic growth in Indonesia. Specifically, it analyzes whether variations in additional Covid-19 cases across provinces weaken the impact of changes in the share of real exports on provincial real Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) growth. The analysis applies a dynamic panel data approach using the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) to address potential endogeneity. The study uses quarterly provincial-level panel data for Indonesia (34 provinces) over the period 2019–2020, with a total of 136 observations. The findings reveal that the Covid-19 pandemic significantly weakens the positive effect of exports on economic growth, although the moderating effect is relatively small than both the direct effect of exports and the direct negative impact of the pandemic. These results suggest that pandemic containment policies should be designed in balance with economic recovery strategies and underscore the importance of considering non-economic shocks in supply-side macroeconomic analysis.Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic; Economic Growth; Exports; Panel Data Analysis
Co-Authors Asian, Novelia Berliana Anggun Septiani Bernard Edheney Huruta Birgitta Dian Saraswati Didit Budi Nugroho Dwike Chandraderia Huruta, Bernard Edheney Lelyko Trisnawati Marlina Banne Lembang Marlina Banne Lembang Riandi Riandi Trisdian, Paula Adiati Triska Andri Arini Tundjung Mahatma Yuliana Yuliana