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EMOTIONLESS DECISION. A COIN FLIP INVESTMENT DECISION, IS THAT WORTHED? Kiky, Andreas
ULTIMA Management Vol 14 No 2 (2022): Ultima Management : Jurnal Ilmu Manajemen
Publisher : Universitas Multimedia Nusantara

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31937/manajemen.v14i2.2878

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Abstract- This article tries to test whether emotionless decisions (a coin flip) in investment decision-making could outperform human judgment due to superiority in avoiding behaviour bias caused by emotion. However, research about a coin flip in the investment decision is rarely can be found due to a lack of a solid foundation. Research problem in this article: Would the coin flip in investment decisions outperform human judgment in terms of investment wealth under the short-term trading range? The originality of this research is no prior research has been interested in checking the superiority of coin flip decisions in real investment due to the risk of uncertainty. This research finds a suitable environment (stock market competition) as the place to check the validity of the idea. This research uses a simple coin flip experiment to decide whether to sell or hold the investment asset during the stock competition. The result of investment wealth from the coin flip will be compared with the rest of the participants. A standard normal distribution (z) and (t) is used to check whether the coin flip wealth consistently falls into the top 5% or 1% of the right tail. Before that, the Kolmogorov-Smirnoff test is conducted to ensure the distribution follows the normal distribution shape. Using a coin flip for investment decisions is not outperform human judgment and winning the competition. Investment decision-making is an art between handling complex rational thinking about risk and managing the emotion in the process. Keywords: Coin Flip Decision; Investment Decision; Stock Competition; Emotionless Decision
TRUMP TARIFF ON INDONESIA STOCK EXCHANGE. DOES THE MARKET RECOVER ONE MONTH AFTER THE ANNOUNCEMENT? Kiky, Andreas
ULTIMA Management Vol 17 No 1 (2025): Ultima Management : Jurnal Ilmu Manajemen
Publisher : Universitas Multimedia Nusantara

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31937/manajemen.v17i1.4188

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Abstract - This study examines the Indonesian stock market's reaction to the U.S. tariff announcement on April 1, 2025. The Indonesian Stock Market tends to overreact to the Trump Announcement. This paper presents the latest empirical findings on the effect of the Trump Tariff announcement, made immediately after the market reopened following a long holiday and a month after the event. Employing an event study methodology, the research analyses abnormal returns of 782 listed firms using the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) to estimate expected returns. The analysis focuses on two critical points: April 8th 2025, when the market reopened after the announcement, and April 30th, the end of the post-event window. The findings reveal a significant negative abnormal return immediately after the market reopened, followed by a strong positive abnormal return at the end of the month. A paired-sample test confirms a statistically significant difference in abnormal returns between these two periods. Cross-sectional analysis across beta tertiles shows that systematic risk levels influenced investor reactions, with low-beta stocks experiencing the most pronounced reversal. These results highlight the sensitivity of emerging markets to global policy shifts and underscore the importance of risk exposure in shaping investor behaviour. Keywords: Event Studies; Tariff Effect; Abnormal Return; Efficient Market Hypothesis; Policy Spilover
Analisis Probabilitas Pola Candlestick terhadap Pergerakan Harga Pada Pasar Saham Indonesia Samadan, Ajwanor Razka Ibadilah; Kiky, Andreas
RIGGS: Journal of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Business Vol. 4 No. 2 (2025): Mei - Juli
Publisher : Prodi Bisnis Digital Universitas Pahlawan Tuanku Tambusai

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31004/riggs.v4i2.445

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Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis probabilitas pola candlestick terhadap pergerakan harga pada pasar saham Indonesia. Pendekatan statistik digunakan untuk mengukur seberapa akurat pola candlestick dalam memprediksi arah harga saham. Data yang digunakan adalah data historis saham yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) dengan periode tertentu. Metode penelitian melibatkan analisis statistik deskriptif, penghitungan probabilitas, dan pengujian hipotesis. Hasil penelitian ini diharapkan dapat memberikan wawasan kepada investor mengenai efektivitas analisis teknikal khususnya pola candlestick dalam pengambilan keputusan investasi. Penelitian ini juga berkontribusi pada literatur akademik dengan mengevaluasi relevansi pola candlestick dalam konteks pasar saham Indonesia yang cenderung memiliki karakteristik pasar efisien lemah atau semi-kuat.
Ultimatum Games, Easy Money is Generosity? A Violation of Rational Homo Economicus Kiky, Andreas
Integrated Journal of Business and Economics (IJBE) Vol 9, No 3 (2025): Integrated Journal of Business and Economics
Publisher : Universitas Bangka Belitung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33019/ijbe.v9i3.1220

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This study investigates fairness behaviour in the Ultimatum Game by examining proposer-to-responder offer ratios in same-gender dyads within the Indonesian cultural context. One hundred twelve undergraduate students (56 pairs) participated in a one-shot game involving a Rp 10,000 endowment. The research aims to determine whether same-gender pairs, specifically male–male and female–female, deviate from classical rationality models and align with normative fairness expectations. Female proposers offered higher and more consistent amounts than male proposers. The Wilcoxon Signed-Rank Test showed that offers did not significantly differ from an equal-split benchmark (50%) but were significantly higher than the commonly reported 40% average. Although the Mann–Whitney U test did not reach conventional significance (p = 0.053), a marginal trend suggested greater fairness in female–female pairs. These findings indicate that fairness decisions are shaped by gender dynamics and cultural norms emphasising social harmony and equality. The study contributes to behavioural economics by highlighting the role of gender and context in shaping deviations from self-interested behaviour. Limitations include social familiarity between participants and the use of externally provided money. Future research should explore stranger pairings and link proposer resources to personal or charitable outcomes to further test fairness motivations.
From promises to reality: Analyzing discrepancies in residential property advertisements in indonesia Kiky, Andreas
Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Vol. 28 No. 2 (2025)
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomika dan Bisnis Universitas Kristen Satya Wacana

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24914/jeb.v28i2.13410

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This study investigates the prevalence and impact of false advertising in residential property advertisements within the Indonesian market, particularly in Jakarta and Tangerang. Regulatory support allowing developers to advertise and sell properties before construction has stimulated demand. This research aims to empirically evaluate the accuracy of advertised distances and commute times, identifying potential discrepancies and their implications. The study utilizes a sample of 170 property advertisements, descriptive statistics, and the Wilcoxon Signed Rank test to analyze the differences between advertised and actual distances and commute times. Data collection involved comparing the advertised metrics with actual measurements obtained via Google Maps. The findings reveal significant discrepancies between the advertised and actual distances and commute times, suggesting prevalent false advertising practices in property developers. Developers and agents promote shorter distances and times than the actual value based on Google Maps measurements. This misrepresentation has implications for consumer trust and regulatory compliance. This research addresses a critical gap in understanding advertising practices in the Indonesian property market. It highlights the necessity for greater transparency and accuracy in property marketing to maintain consumer trust and comply with regulatory standards. The study underscores the importance of ethical advertising practices for long-term brand equity and customer loyalty. Property developers are advised to enhance the accuracy of their advertisements to build trust and avoid legal repercussions. Regulatory bodies are encouraged to enforce stricter advertising standards to protect consumers and ensure market integrity.
PENGARUH KREDIBILITAS INFLUENCER, KUALITAS KONTEN, DAN ENGAGEMENT TERHADAP KEPUTUSAN PEMBELIAN PADA MEREK SOMETHINC Adhidarma, Keisya Gabriella; kiky, andreas
Jurnal Nusa Manajemen Vol. 2 No. 3 (2025): Jurnal Nusa Manajemen Volume 2 Nomor 3 November Tahun 2025
Publisher : Publika Citra Media

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.62237/jnm.v2i3.340

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In the digital era, the use of social media influencers has evolved into a highly effective marketing strategy for influencing consumer purchasing behavior. This study selected Somethinc, a local skincare merek that has successfully achieved the highest sales rankings in Indonesia, as the focus of analysis. The main objective of the research is to evaluate the extent to which influencer credibility, content quality, and engagement levels affect consumers’ purchasing decisions for Somethinc products. A quantitative approach was employed through a survey method, distributing questionnaires to 150 respondents residing in the Greater Jakarta area (Jabodetabek). Data analysis was conducted using multiple linear regression with the assistance of SPSS software. The research findings indicate that the three independent variables (influencer credibility, content quality, and engagement) collectively contribute to purchasing decisions. Furthermore, partial analysis revealed that each variable also has a significant individual impact. These results emphasize that implementing a well-planned influencer marketing strategy, with a focus on credibility, engaging content presentation, and intensive audience interaction, is essential in shaping consumer purchasing decisions. Therefore, this study is expected to serve as a reference for developing digital marketing strategies in the beauty industry, particularly for local mereks in Indonesia.
FALSE ADVERTISING PRACTICE IN RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY BILLBOARD? AN EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE Kiky, Andreas
ULTIMA Management Vol 16 No 2 (2024): Ultima Management : Jurnal Ilmu Manajemen
Publisher : Universitas Multimedia Nusantara

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31937/manajemen.v16i2.3726

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bstract-This study examines the practice of false advertising in residential property advertisements in the Jakarta and Tangerang areas. Developers use advertisements presenting information on distance and travel time to attract potential buyers. This research aims to detect whether the information presented in these advertisements matches the actual conditions on the ground. This research provides the first empirical evidence of inaccurate ads and false advertising practices in the property business in Jakarta and Tangerang Regency. Data was collected from 41 physical advertisement samples spread across the study area. The analysis results show that the advertised distance and travel time are shorter and faster than actual measurements using Google Maps. Statistical tests using paired t-tests indicate significant differences between the advertised information and the exact conditions. The paired t-test is significant at a 1% level of significance. Regulators must address the existence of false advertising in property business. Providing inaccurate or doubtful information can harm the long-term reputation of the developers themselves. Future research can address a cause-effect model to understand the consumer behavior behind their purchase decisions. Because property assets can act as investment assets, the behavioral intention and rational expectation about future property prices are also worth investigating. Keywords: False Advertising; Business Ethics; Billboard Ads; Residential Property; Property Management
Investasi Cryptocurrencies. Bertahan dengan Kerugian Cryptocurrencies? Kiky, Andreas; Saputera, David
Perspektif : Jurnal Ekonomi dan Manajemen Akademi Bina Sarana Informatika Vol 21, No 2 (2023): September 2023
Publisher : www.bsi.ac.id

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31294/jp.v21i2.15657

Abstract

Holding the loss without reason is one of the behavioural biases which are very common to be found in investment. Investment is also entering a new era of modern and sophisticated assets. One of these assets is known as cryptocurrencies. This article is written to detect whether the disposition effect is occurring to cryptocurrency investors and whether they are holding the loss. The disposition effect in this research was measured as respondents' perception of whether they sold the winning assets too fast and kept the failure in the long run. The result from this research is disposition effect was indeed found in descriptive statistics but failed to confirm the influence of independent variables on the disposition effect using the linear regression method. There is no effect of financial literacy, overconfidence, regret aversion, and risk tolerance on the perceptional disposition effect, which the emotional factor of loss aversion might cause. This will cause an individual to be reluctant to realize the loss in the hope the asset will return to the initial purchasing price. Further investigation will be the future area for developing research about the disposition effect. Interestingly, this research also found the literacy score of the respondents is deficient, but they are very confident in investing in the most volatile asset, such as cryptocurrencies. This research has several limitations, such as the sample being relatively similar in financial literacy, so selecting a wide range (heterogenous), sample in future research is crucial. Another improvement is in methodology, and perhaps an experimental approach could be a promising field in the study of behavioural bias in the future.
SOCIAL MEDIA DAN MINAT BELI GEN Z (STUDI KASUS INSTAGRAM STARBUCKS INDONESIA) Sugianto, Natasya; Kiky, Andreas
Modus Vol. 35 No. 2 (2023): Vol. 35 No. 2 (2023): MODUS
Publisher : Faculty of Business and Economics Universitas Atma Jaya Yogyakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24002/modus.v35i2.7637

Abstract

Starbucks is a company in the coffee café retail industry that conducts social media marketing via Instagram to market its products and services. In Indonesia, Generation Z users dominate Instagram social media. 4C which consists of context, communication, collaboration, and connection was used to increase consumer buying interest. This study aims to determine the effect of 4C in social media marketing on buying interest partially and simultaneously. This study is quantitative research that uses survey methods. Primary data collection was from the distribution of online questionnaires using Google Forms. Secondary data was collected from previous research, books, survey results, and information from official websites owned by private or government institutions. Population research was from Instagram @starbucksindonesia followers who were classified as Generation Z with a sample of 100 respondents. Samples were collected using a nonprobability technique with a purposive sampling method. The data processing and analysis technique used in this study is multiple linear regression. The study results show a positive effect between context, communication, collaboration, and connection toward buying interest simultaneously and partially. Based on the research results, it would be better if retailers from the MSME to the international scale maximized all 4C variables in social media marketing to increase and maintain consumer buying interest. Messages, information, concepts, and content design preparation must start a month before. So that in the following month, the content schedule that is ready to be posted is available. There must be regular evaluations to check whether the content has achieved its goals. Keywords: buying interest, Instagram, marketing management, social media, social media marketing. Starbucks merupakan perusahaan di industri retail café kopi yang melakukan social media marketing melalui Instagram untuk memasarkan produk dan layanannya. Di Indonesia, Instagram didominasi oleh pengguna yang merupakan generasi Z. 4C yang meliputi context, communication, collaboration, dan connection digunakan dalam membuat konten social media marketing untuk meningkatkan minat beli konsumen. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui pengaruh 4C dalam social media marketing terhadap minat beli secara parsial dan simultan. Penelitian ini berbasis kuantitatif menggunakan metode survei. Pengumpulan data primer dilakukan melalui penyebaran kuesioner secara online menggunakan google form. Data sekunder diperoleh dari penelitian sebelumnya, buku, hasil survei, serta informasi dari website resmi lembaga swasta atau pemerintah. Populasi penelitian diambil dari followers Instagram @starbucksindonesia yang tergolong generasi Z dengan sampel 100 responden. Sampel dikumpulkan menggunakan teknik nonprobability dengan metode purposive sampling. Teknik pengolahan dan analisis data menggunakan regresi linear berganda. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan context, communication, collaboration, dan connection berpengaruh positif terhadap minat beli secara simultan maupun parsial. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian, akan lebih baik jika peretail dari skala UMKM hingga internasional memaksimalkan seluruh variabel 4C dalam social media marketing agar dapat meningkatkan dan mempertahankan minat beli konsumen. Pesan, informasi, konsep, dan desain konten perlu dipersiapkan satu bulan sebelumnya, sehingga jadwal konten yang siap untuk diposting bulan berikutnya sudah tersedia. Evaluasi juga harus rutin dilakukan untuk memeriksa apakah konten yang dibuat telah mencapai tujuan. Kata Kunci: Instagram, manajemen pemasaran, media sosial, minat beli, social media marketing.