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Journal : Jurnal Matematika

Penyelesaian Positif Model Penyebaran Virus Ebola Antar Dua Wilayah Awawin Mustana Rohmah; Dinita Rahmalia
Jurnal Matematika Vol 10 No 1 (2020)
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Udayana University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24843/JMAT.2020.v10.i01.p122

Abstract

A Model describing the epidemic spread of the Ebola virus disease in region 1 and region 2 can be formed in a mathematical model, one of which is the SEIR endemic model. To form a mathematical model it is necessary to know the phenomenon of the spread of the Ebola virus, namely the large number of infected populations in an area which is not only caused by infected individuals in one area but can be caused by individuals traveling from one region to another. In this case, the SEIR model is analyzed for existence and uniqueness. Before doing the Analyze, the SEIR model was simplified. Then lipschitz was determined, so that an analysis of existence and uniqueness could be carried out. This shows that the SEIR model has a unique solution. Furthermore, a positive solution is determined in the model, to show that the SEIR model has a continuous and dynamic flow. Based on these results, it was found that the SEIR model in the spread of the Ebola virus had dynamic and a continuous flow.
Prediksi Jumlah Pengiriman Paket Menggunakan Metode Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average Sholikah, Layla Hidayatus; Chandra, Novita Eka; Rohmaniah, Siti Alfiatur; Rohmah, Awawin Mustana
Jurnal Matematika Vol 14 No 1 (2024)
Publisher : Publisher : Mathematics Department, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Udayana University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24843/JMAT.2024.v14.i01.p174

Abstract

This research aims to predict the number of postal office package deliveries using the ARIMA method. The data used is delivery data at the Lamongan Post Office from January 2018 to December 2022. The results of this research are the best model for predicting delivery data, namely ARIMA (2,2,0) with an RMSE value of 2333.897 and a MAPE value of 8,83%. Prediction results for the full year in 2023 have increased every month. Keywords: prediction, delivery, ARIMA