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PRICE TRANSMISSION OF SKIM MILK POWDER IN INDONESIA: DO SKIM MILK POWDER IMPORT PRICES FOLLOW THE PRICES IN NEW ZEALAND? Nurunisa, Venty Fitriany; Sinaga, Bonar Marulitua; Winandi, Ratna; Brummer, Bernhard
Forum Agribisnis Vol 4, No 2 (2014): FA Vol 4 No 2 September 2014
Publisher : Forum Agribisnis

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The objectives of this research are i) to examine New Zealands dairy sector and ii) to analyze the market integration and price transmission of Skim Milk Powder (SMP) of New Zealand and Indonesian market. The methods used are Augmented Dickey Fuller test, Johansen Cointegration test, and Vector Error Correction Model. The result indicates: 1) as trade partner, New Zealand is powerful due to its status as the largest dairy producer worldwide; therefore, Indonesia has less bargaining power and 2) The SMP market of both countries are integrated. The coefficient of long run equation variable indicates that every 10 percent changes of one market, the imported SMP price will adjust 10.97 percent, while the exported SMP price will adjust 9.12 percent. The loading vector coefficient indicates that Indonesia is the only party adjusting to long run disequilibrium. Policies to minimize the risks includes: i) buffer budget, ii) alternative suppliers and iii) futures trade.

Impacts of Government and Household Expenditure on Human Development Index Sulistyowati, Niken; Sinaga, Bonar Marulitua; Novindra, Novindra
JEJAK: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Vol 10, No 2 (2017): September 2017
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/jejak.v10i2.11305

The objective of this reseach are to: (1) analyze the factors affecting human development index and household expenditures for health, education and others, (2) predict the impacts of government expenditure policy in the field of education, health, and infrastructure on human development index in Central Java.Â The model was built using econometric approach in the form of a system of simultaneous equations, including five blocks i.e. government's revenue, expenditures, input, output, and performance. The system of simultaneous equations consisted of 26 equations (19 structural equations and 7 identity equations). The estimation method used Two Stage Least Squares with SYSLIN procedure. Prediction simulation used the stepwise Autoregressive method. The model simulation used Newton's method and SIMNLIN procedure. The results of policy simulation concludes that the combination of the increase in government expenditure for education and infrastructure lead to better performance in increasing income per capita, disposable income and HDI compared to the combination of the policy of the increase in government expenditure for education and in both municipalities and district, but municipalities receive greatest impact compared to the district.

Dampak Kebijakan Perdagangan terhadap Pengembangan Industri Biodiesel Indonesia Purba, Helena Juliani; Sinaga, Bonar Marulitua; Novianti, Tanti; Kustiari, Reni
Jurnal Agro Ekonomi Vol 36, No 1 (2018): Jurnal Agro Ekonomi
Publisher : Pusat Sosial Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Pertanian

EnglishIndonesian government has been promoting development of palm oil based biodiesel industry through the so-called biodiesel mandatory policy. Biodiesel is a renewable energy and low emission. Palm oil and its derivative products are the most important contributors of foreign exchange in 2017. Trade policy is required to accelerate the achievement of biodiesel industry development in Indonesia. The study is intended to analyze the impacts of trade policy (export tax by Indonesian government and import restriction by the European Union) on the development of Indonesiaâ€™s biodiesel industry. The analysis used econometrics model in the form of simultaneous equations system consisting of 27 structural and 9 identity equations, estimated using the 2SLS (Two Stage Least Squares) method. This research used annual time series data 1991â€“2015. The result shows that both the export tax policy by Indonesian government and palm oil import ban by European Union have positive impacts on Indonesia's biodiesel industry but do have negative impacts on the foreign exchange revenues. The negative impacts on foreign exchange revenues can be avoided by replanting policy. Whenever the European Union imposes palm oil import ban policy; then, it is suggested that Indonesian government imposes the domestic market obligation and replanting policy. IndonesianIndonesia sedang melakukan upaya pengembangan biodiesel yang bersumber dari minyak sawit dalam kebijakan mandatori biodiesel. Biodiesel adalah sumber energi terbarukan dan rendah emisi. Minyak sawit dan produk turunannya adalah penyumbang devisa negara terbesar pada tahun 2017. Kebijakan perdagangan diperlukan untuk mempercepat pencapaian pengembangan industri biodiesel Indonesia. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis dampak kebijakan perdagangan (pajak ekspor oleh pemerintah Indonesia dan pembatasan impor oleh Uni Eropa) terhadap pengembangan industri biodiesel Indonesia. Analisis menggunakan model ekonometrik dalam bentuk sistem persamaan simultan terdiri dari 27 persamaan struktural dan 9 persamaan identitas yang diestimasi dengan metode Two Stage Least Squares (2SLS) menggunakan data series tahunan 1990â€“2015. Hasil penelitian memperlihatkan bahwa kebijakan pajak ekspor oleh pemerintah Indonesia maupun larangan impor oleh Uni Eropa berdampak positif bagi perkembangan industri biodiesel Indonesia, namun berdampak negatif terhadap penerimaan devisa Indonesia. Dampak negatif terhadap penerimaan devisa dapat diatasi dengan kebijakan peremajaan kelapa sawit (replanting). Manakala Uni Eropa melakukan pelarangan impor minyak sawit, maka disarankan Pemerintah Indonesia menerapkan kebijakan domestic market obligation dan replanting.

DAMPAK ALOKASI BANTUAN MODAL DAN TENAGA KERJA KELUARGA TERHADAP KESEJAHTERAAN RUMAH TANGGA PETANI DI NUSA TENGGARA TIMUR Sinaga, Bonar Marulitua; Hartoyo, Sri; Simatupang, Pantjar; Fallo, Ferdy Adif I.
Jurnal Agro Ekonomi Vol 36, No 2 (2018): Jurnal Agro Ekonomi
Publisher : Pusat Sosial Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Pertanian

English East Nusa Tenggara is the province with the highest poverty prevalence in Indonesia. One of the government's efforts to overcome poverty in the area is the capital assistance program for farm households. This research aimed to analyze the impacts of capital support and household labor allocation on the welfare of farm households in East Nusa Tenggara. The survey for data collection was conducted from in South Central Timor and Kupang Regencies of East Nusa Tenggara Province February to July 2017 with samples of 118 farmer households. Data analysis was conducted by developing an econometric simulation model based on farm-household economic theory. The results showed that increasing capital aid allocation for livestock business decreased the welfare, but increasing investment for livestock business, allocation of capital support for nonfarm business, and allocation of family labor for nonfarm business in single case had an impact on improving the welfare of farmer's household. The best combination consisted of increasing investment for livestock business, allocation of capital support for nonfarm business, and family labor allocation for nonfarm business. Increasing the allocation of family labor for nonfarm business is an important policy because it singly or in combination had an impact on improving the welfare of farm households.IndonesianNusa Tenggara Timur merupakan provinsi dengan prevalensi kemiskinan tertinggi di Indonesia. Salah satu upaya yang dilakukan pemerintah untuk mengatasi kemiskinan di daerah tersebut adalah program bantuan modal kepada rumah tangga petani. Penelitian bertujuan untuk menganalisis dampak alokasi bantuan modal dan tenaga kerja rumah tangga terhadap kesejahteraan rumah tangga petani. Survei pengumpulan data dilaksanakan di Kabupaten Timor Tengah Selatan dan Kupang Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timur pada bulan Februari hingga Juli 2017 dengan sampel sebanyak 118 rumah tangga petani. Analisis dilakukan dengan membangun model simulasi ekonometrik berbasis teori ekonomi rumah tangga petani. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa peningkatan alokasi bantuan modal untuk usaha ternak menurunkan kesejahteraan, namun peningkatan investasi untuk usaha ternak, alokasi bantuan modal untuk usaha non pertanian, dan alokasi tenaga kerja keluarga untuk usaha non pertanian secara tunggal berdampak meningkatkan kesejahteraan rumah tangga petani. Kombinasi terbaik ialah kombinasi peningkatan investasi untuk usaha ternak, alokasi bantuan modal untuk usaha nonpertanian, dan alokasi tenaga kerja keluarga untuk usaha nonpertanian. Peningkatan alokasi tenaga kerja keluarga untuk usaha nonpertanian merupakan kebijakan yang cukup penting karena secara tunggal maupun kombinasi berdampak meningkatkan kesejahteraan rumah tangga petani.

Dampak Kebijakan Perberasan pada Pasar Beras dan Kesejahteraan Produsen dan Konsumen Beras di Indonesia Edy Siswanto; Bonar Marulitua Sinaga; . Harianto
Jurnal Ilmu Pertanian Indonesia Vol. 23 No. 2 (2018): Jurnal Ilmu Pertanian Indonesia
Publisher : Institut Pertanian Bogor

Rice demand in Indonesia increases every year so it makes the big gap between production and consumption of rice. Excess demand is covered by rice import which causes domestic rice price responds the global rice price movements that harm both producers and consumers. So, the policy instruments that could reduce dependence on rice import and can provide benefits to producers and consumers of rice is very needed. The objectives of this study were to analyze the impact of rice policy on rice market and the welfare of rice producers and consumers. This study uses annual time series data and simultaneous equations model with two stages least squares method. The analysis showed that rice policy changes can influence condition of Indonesia’s rice market and that the increase in Government Purchase Price (HPP), agricultural credit, and fertilizer subsidy can improve the welfare of the producers and consumers.

Dampak Kebijakan Perdagangan terhadap Pengembangan Industri Biodiesel Indonesia Helena Juliani Purba; Bonar Marulitua Sinaga; Tanti Novianti; Reni Kustiari
Jurnal Agro Ekonomi Vol 36, No 1 (2018): Jurnal Agro Ekonomi
Publisher : Pusat Sosial Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Pertanian

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21082/jae.v36n1.2018.1-24

EnglishIndonesian government has been promoting development of palm oil based biodiesel industry through the so-called biodiesel mandatory policy. Biodiesel is a renewable energy and low emission. Palm oil and its derivative products are the most important contributors of foreign exchange in 2017. Trade policy is required to accelerate the achievement of biodiesel industry development in Indonesia. The study is intended to analyze the impacts of trade policy (export tax by Indonesian government and import restriction by the European Union) on the development of Indonesia’s biodiesel industry. The analysis used econometrics model in the form of simultaneous equations system consisting of 27 structural and 9 identity equations, estimated using the 2SLS (Two Stage Least Squares) method. This research used annual time series data 1991–2015. The result shows that both the export tax policy by Indonesian government and palm oil import ban by European Union have positive impacts on Indonesia's biodiesel industry but do have negative impacts on the foreign exchange revenues. The negative impacts on foreign exchange revenues can be avoided by replanting policy. Whenever the European Union imposes palm oil import ban policy; then, it is suggested that Indonesian government imposes the domestic market obligation and replanting policy. IndonesianIndonesia sedang melakukan upaya pengembangan biodiesel yang bersumber dari minyak sawit dalam kebijakan mandatori biodiesel. Biodiesel adalah sumber energi terbarukan dan rendah emisi. Minyak sawit dan produk turunannya adalah penyumbang devisa negara terbesar pada tahun 2017. Kebijakan perdagangan diperlukan untuk mempercepat pencapaian pengembangan industri biodiesel Indonesia. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis dampak kebijakan perdagangan (pajak ekspor oleh pemerintah Indonesia dan pembatasan impor oleh Uni Eropa) terhadap pengembangan industri biodiesel Indonesia. Analisis menggunakan model ekonometrik dalam bentuk sistem persamaan simultan terdiri dari 27 persamaan struktural dan 9 persamaan identitas yang diestimasi dengan metode Two Stage Least Squares (2SLS) menggunakan data series tahunan 1990–2015. Hasil penelitian memperlihatkan bahwa kebijakan pajak ekspor oleh pemerintah Indonesia maupun larangan impor oleh Uni Eropa berdampak positif bagi perkembangan industri biodiesel Indonesia, namun berdampak negatif terhadap penerimaan devisa Indonesia. Dampak negatif terhadap penerimaan devisa dapat diatasi dengan kebijakan peremajaan kelapa sawit (replanting). Manakala Uni Eropa melakukan pelarangan impor minyak sawit, maka disarankan Pemerintah Indonesia menerapkan kebijakan domestic market obligation dan replanting.

Dampak Faktor Eksternal terhadap Kesejahteraan Rumah Tangga Petani Tebu Keprasan di Jawa Tengah Fadilla Ristya Aminda; Bonar Marulitua Sinaga; Anna Fariyanti
Jurnal Agro Ekonomi Vol 35, No 2 (2017): Jurnal Agro Ekonomi
Publisher : Pusat Sosial Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Pertanian

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21082/jae.v35n2.2017.127-150

EnglishCentral Java Province is one of sugarcane producing centers in Indonesia and Pati is one of sugarcane producing regencies in the province. A total of 5,905 households in Pati regency conduct sugarcane farming as their primary income source. However, sugarcane farmers deal withlimited capital to adopt productivity improving technologies. This study aimed to analyze factors influencing economic decisions of sugarcane farmers in allocating working hours, production, and household’s expenditure, as well as to analyze the impact of changes in input prices, output price, credit, and sugar level on sugarcane farmer household’s welfare in Central Java. Simultaneous equation models consisting of 21 structural equations and 22 identity equations were estimated using Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) method. The results showed that an increase in credit, sugar price, and sugar level could compensate increases in fertilizer price and labor wage and had positive impact on farmers’ welfare. Increases in fertilizer price and labor wage could be compensated through credit, sugar price, and sugar level enhancement. It is necessary that the Government increases sugar price and ensures farmers’ access to credit. It aims to encourage farmers to adopt technology through replanting (ratoon replacement) to improve sugarcane productivity and farmers’ welfare.IndonesianJawa Tengah merupakan salah satu sentra produksi tebu di Indonesia. Salah satu kabupaten sentra produksi tebu di Jawa Tengah adalah Pati. Sebanyak 5.905 rumah tangga petani tebu di Kabupaten Pati memiliki usaha tani tebu sebagai sumber pendapatan utama. Rumah tangga petani tebu dihadapkan pada masalah keterbatasan modal sehingga kemampuan adopsi teknologi rendah dan budi daya tidak optimal. Kondisi ini berdampak pada rendahnya produktivitas dan pendapatan rumah tangga. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi keputusan ekonomi rumah tangga petani tebu dalam alokasi curahan kerja, produksi, dan pengeluaran rumah tangga, serta dampak perubahan harga input, harga ouptut, kredit, dan rendemen terhadap kesejahteraan rumah tangga petani tebu. Penelitian menggunakan data cross section dengan jumlah sampel sebanyak 56 rumah tangga petani tebu. Model ekonomi rumah tangga petani dibangun sebagai sistem persamaan simultan yang terdiri dari 21 persamaan struktural dan 22 persamaan identitas, lalu diestimasi menggunakan metode Two Stage Least Squares (2SLS). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa kebijakan peningkatan harga gula, jumlah kredit, dan rendemen gula berdampak positif terhadap kesejahteraan rumah tangga petani. Peningkatan harga pupuk dan upah tenaga kerja luar keluarga mampu dikompensasi dengan peningkatan jumlah kredit, harga gula, dan rendemen gula. Pemerintah sebaiknya meningkatkan harga patokan petani dan juga memperbesar jumlah kredit yang dapat diakses petani untuk mendorong adopsi teknologi dengan melakukan peremajaan tanaman (bongkar ratoon) yang bertujuan untuk meningkatkan produktivitas dan kesejahteraan rumah tangga.

Dampak Alokasi Bantuan Modal dan Tenaga Kerja Keluarga terhadap Kesejahteraan Rumah Tangga Petani di Nusa Tenggara Timur Ferdy Adif I. Fallo; Bonar Marulitua Sinaga; Sri Hartoyo; Pantjar Simatupang
Jurnal Agro Ekonomi Vol 36, No 2 (2018): Jurnal Agro Ekonomi
Publisher : Pusat Sosial Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Pertanian

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21082/jae.v36n2.2018.113-134

English East Nusa Tenggara is the province with the highest poverty prevalence in Indonesia. One of the government's efforts to overcome poverty in the area is the capital assistance program for farm households. This research aimed to analyze the impacts of capital support and household labor allocation on the welfare of farm households in East Nusa Tenggara. The survey for data collection was conducted from in South Central Timor and Kupang Regencies of East Nusa Tenggara Province February to July 2017 with samples of 118 farmer households. Data analysis was conducted by developing an econometric simulation model based on farm-household economic theory. The results showed that increasing capital aid allocation for livestock business decreased the welfare, but increasing investment for livestock business, allocation of capital support for nonfarm business, and allocation of family labor for nonfarm business in single case had an impact on improving the welfare of farmer's household. The best combination consisted of increasing investment for livestock business, allocation of capital support for nonfarm business, and family labor allocation for nonfarm business. Increasing the allocation of family labor for nonfarm business is an important policy because it singly or in combination had an impact on improving the welfare of farm households.IndonesianNusa Tenggara Timur merupakan provinsi dengan prevalensi kemiskinan tertinggi di Indonesia. Salah satu upaya yang dilakukan pemerintah untuk mengatasi kemiskinan di daerah tersebut adalah program bantuan modal kepada rumah tangga petani. Penelitian bertujuan untuk menganalisis dampak alokasi bantuan modal dan tenaga kerja rumah tangga terhadap kesejahteraan rumah tangga petani. Survei pengumpulan data dilaksanakan di Kabupaten Timor Tengah Selatan dan Kupang Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timur pada bulan Februari hingga Juli 2017 dengan sampel sebanyak 118 rumah tangga petani. Analisis dilakukan dengan membangun model simulasi ekonometrik berbasis teori ekonomi rumah tangga petani. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa peningkatan alokasi bantuan modal untuk usaha ternak menurunkan kesejahteraan, namun peningkatan investasi untuk usaha ternak, alokasi bantuan modal untuk usaha non pertanian, dan alokasi tenaga kerja keluarga untuk usaha non pertanian secara tunggal berdampak meningkatkan kesejahteraan rumah tangga petani. Kombinasi terbaik ialah kombinasi peningkatan investasi untuk usaha ternak, alokasi bantuan modal untuk usaha nonpertanian, dan alokasi tenaga kerja keluarga untuk usaha nonpertanian. Peningkatan alokasi tenaga kerja keluarga untuk usaha nonpertanian merupakan kebijakan yang cukup penting karena secara tunggal maupun kombinasi berdampak meningkatkan kesejahteraan rumah tangga petani.

Dampak Kebijakan Domestik terhadap Ketersediaan Jagung untuk Bahan Baku Industri Pengolahan di Indonesia Veralianta Br Sebayang; Bonar Marulitua Sinaga; nFN Harianto; I Ketut Kariyasa
Jurnal Agro Ekonomi Vol 37, No 2 (2019): Jurnal Agro Ekonomi
Publisher : Pusat Sosial Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Pertanian

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21082/jae.v37n2.2019.141-155

EnglishMaize is a strategic commodity for Indonesia. In line with the consumption pattern, the domestic demand for maize has changed from previously dominated by household consumption to presently dominated by raw material for feed and food processing industries. The maize demand of the processing industry increases rapidly, outpaced domestic production growth, that makes Indonesia must import maize in an increasing amount. This study aims to determine the impact of government policy on maize production which is the input of the maize processing industry. The analysis was conducted using an econometric simultaneous equation system model which was estimated with the two stages least squares technique using time series data of 1985-2017. The results show that the maize harvest area is negatively related with labor wage and urea price, and is positively related with the maize farm price. Maize productivity is positively related with quantity of urea fertilizer and hybrid seeds. but negatively related with composite seeds. The scenario of subsidizing urea prices and hybrid seed, raising import tariffs can increase the availability maize for processing industries as indicated by increasing domestic production and decreasing maize imports.IndonesianJagung termasuk komoditas strategis untuk Indonesia. Seiring dengan perubahan pola konsumsi, permintaan jagung dalam negeri berubah dari sebelumnya didominasi oleh konsumsi rumah tangga menjadi kini didominasi oleh bahan baku industri pengolahan pakan dan pangan. Kebutuhan jagung untuk bahan baku industri pengolahan meningkat pesat, bahkan melampaui peningkatan produksi jagung dalam negeri, sehingga Indonesia terpaksa mengimpor jagung dalam jumlah yang terus meningkat. Penelitian bertujuan untuk mengetahui dampak kebijakan pemerintah terhadap produksi jagung yang menjadi input industri pengolahan jagung. Metode analisis yang digunakan ialah model ekonometrika sistem persamaan simultan yang diduga dengan teknik two stages least squares memakai data deret waktu 1985-2017. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa luas areal panen jagung berhubungan negatif dengan upah buruh tani dan harga pupuk urea, sebaliknya, berhubungan positif terhadap harga jagung di tingkat petani. Produktivitas jagung berhubungan positif dengan volume penggunaan pupuk urea dan benih hibrida, namun berhubungan negatif dengan benih komposit. Skenario kebijakan subsidi harga pupuk urea, subsidi harga benih hibrida, dan kenaikan tarif impor dapat meningkatkan ketersediaan bahan baku industri pengolahan dan peternak mandiri sebagaimana ditunjukkan oleh kenaikan produksi dalam negeri dan penurunan impor jagung.

DAMPAK PINJAMAN SARANA PRODUKSI TERNAK TERHADAP KESEJAHTERAAN RUMAHTANGGA PETERNAK SAPI PERAH DI LEMBANG Juniar Atmakusuma; Bonar Marulitua Sinaga; Nunung Kusnadi; I Ketut Kariyasa
Jurnal Agribisnis Indonesia Vol. 7 No. 1 (2019): Juni 2019 (Jurnal Agribisnis Indonesia)
Publisher : Departmen of Agribusiness, Economics and Management Faculty, Bogor Agricultural University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/jai.2019.7.1.1-12

Most of the dairy cow farmers in Indonesia are members of the dairy cooperative who receive loan facilities for dairy cattle production and feed concentrates to be useful for increasing the productivity of dairy cows and milk as well as to increase national milk production. The purpose of this study was to identify the business of dairy farmers, and analyze the impact of loans for dairy cattle production facilities on production, income and household well-being of dairy farmers. The analytical method consisted of descriptive analysis and household economic model of dairy farmers in the form of simultaneous equations with sample households of 97 member farmers and 46 non-member farmers in Lembang, West Java. The results of the study show that the age of the farmer is in a productive age with a long experience of farming so that the opportunity for formal education is limited. The scale of ownership of small dairy cows with a low percentage of lactation cows resulting in low milk productivity. Ownership of dairy cattle influences the dairy cattle loan and the price of feed concentrate affects the loan of feed concentrate input. The impact of the cooperative giving loans on dairy cows is greater than giving loans on feed concentrates on increasing the income of dairy cow business and dairy farmer’s household well-being.

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