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All Journal Indonesian Journal of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science
Guru Rajesh Jammy
Allied Research and Education (SHARE-INDIA)

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An agent based model for assessing transmission dynamics and health systems burden for COVID-19 Narassima M. S.; Anbuudayasankar S. P.; Guru Rajesh Jammy; Rashmi Pant; Lincoln Choudhury; Aadharsh Ramakrishnan; Denny John
Indonesian Journal of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science Vol 24, No 3: December 2021
Publisher : Institute of Advanced Engineering and Science

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.11591/ijeecs.v24.i3.pp1735-1743

Abstract

Coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has caused over 230 million infections with more than 4 million deaths worldwide. Researches have been using various mathematical and simulation techniques to estimate the future trends of the pandemic to help the policymakers and healthcare fraternity. Agent-based models (ABM) could provide accurate projections than the compartmental models that have been largely used. The present study involves a simulation of ABM using a synthetic population from India to analyze the effects of interventions on the spread of the disease. A disease model with various states representing the possible progression of the disease was developed and simulated using AnyLogic. The results indicated that imposing stricter non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) lowered the peak values of infections, the proportion of critical patients, and the deceased. Stricter interventions offer a larger time window for the healthcare fraternity to enhance preparedness. The findings of this research could act as a start-point to understand the benefits of ABM-based models for projecting infectious diseases and analyzing the effects of NPI imposed.
Co-Authors Aadharsh Ramakrishnan Anbuudayasankar S. P. Denny John Lincoln Choudhury Narassima M. S. Rashmi Pant