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Analisis Peramalan Impor Beras Indonesia Deby Ramadanthy; Achmad Tjahja Nugraha; Agustina Senjayani
Sharia Agribusiness Journal Vol 2, No 1 (2022)
Publisher : Program Studi Agribisnis UIN Syarif Hidayatullah Jakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (465.81 KB) | DOI: 10.15408/saj.v2i1.26468

Abstract

The cause of the heavy flow of rice imports due to differences in domestic prices and international rice prices cannot be separated from problems with the rice production system and distribution or domestic rice trading system. The objectives of this study are (1) to determine the characteristics of the country of origin of Indonesian rice imports, (2) to obtain a data forecasting model for the volume of Indonesian rice imports using the Box-Jenkins ARIMA method in 2025, and (3) to analyze the forecasting of the value of Indonesian rice imports in 2025 using the ARIMA Box-Jenkins method. ARIMA Box-Jenkins.Data collection on the volume of rice imports and the value of rice imports from January 2010 to December 2019. The data analysis method uses the ARIMA model time series with the help of Software Eviews 10. The results of data processing show that the MA model (1) is the best model. Which is used for forecasting the volume of rice imports is Zt = 703374.4 + 0.157003 + et, where the forecasting results state that the volume of rice imports has increased. Furthermore, the results of data processing on the value of the volume of rice imports show that the MA model (1) is the best model with a general form, namely Zt= 283002.2 + 0.132568 + et. Results of data processing on the value of rice imports indicate an increase in prices in units of US$. Forecasting the volume of Indonesian rice imports and Indonesian rice imports will increase during 2025. Keywords: Import, Rice, Indonesia, Box-Jenkins, Eviews Abstrak:Penyebab arus derasnya impor beras karena perbedaan harga dalam negeri dan harga beras internasional tidak dapat dipisahkan dari persoalan sistem produksi beras dan distribusi atau tata niaga beras domestik. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah (1) mengetahui karakteristik negara asal impor beras Indonesia, (2) mendapatkan model peramalan data volume impor beras Indonesia menggunakan metode ARIMA Box-Jenkins pada tahun 2025, dan (3) menganalisis peramalan nilai impor beras Indonesia tahun 2025 menggunakan metode ARIMA Box-Jenkins.Pengambilan data volume impor beras dan nilai impor beras terhitung dari bulan Januari 2010 hingga Desember 2019. Metode analisis data menggunakan rentang waktu (time series) model ARIMA dengan bantuan Software Eviews 10. Hasil pengolahan data menunjukkan bahwa model MA (1) merupakan model yang terbaik yang dijadikan untuk peramalan pada volume impor beras sebesar Zt = 703374,4 + 0,157003 + et, dimana hasil peramalan menyatakan bahwa volume impor beras mengalami peningkatan. Selanjutnya, hasil pengolahan data pada nilai volume impor beras menunjukkan bahwa model MA (1) merupakan model terbaik dengan bentuk umum yaitu Zt = 283002,2 + 0,132568 + et. hasil dari pengolahan data pada nilai impor beras menyatakan adanya peningkatan harga dengan satuan US$. Peramalan volume impor beras Indonesia dan nila impor beras Indonesia akan mengalami peningkatan selama tahun 2025. Kata Kunci: Impor, Beras, Indonesia, Box-Jenkins, Eviews
THE EFFECT OF SALES VOLUME, SELLING PRICE, AND NUMBER OF TYPES OF INTEREST ON THE INCOME OF CUT FLOWER STALL TRADERSAT RAWA BELONG FLOWER MARKET, WEST JAKARTA Achmad Tjachja Nugraha; Agustina Senjayani; Nur Huriyandah
AGRIBUSINESS JOURNAL Vol 14, No 2 (2020): AGRIBUSINESS JOURNAL
Publisher : Syarif Hidayatullah State Islamic University Jakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15408/aj.v15i2.28153

Abstract

Horticultural crops, especially cut flowers, are a very distinctive commodity, where entrepreneurs are required to pay special attention to their business. The high demand for cut flowers under certain conditions that are not accompanied by the amount of cut interest supply available in the market, results in fluctuations in sales volume and selling prices of cut flowers and has an impact on the income of flower traders from the sale of cut flowers. The purpose of this study is to determine the characteristics of merchants and the size of sales volume, selling price, number of types of flowers, and income of cut flower stall traders; to analyze the effect of sales volume, selling price and amount of interest on the income of cut flower stall traders; and to analyze the sensitivity of the amount of interest type to the income of the vendor of the cut flower stall.This study was conducted at the Rawa Belong Flower Market with a population of 59 cut flower stall vendors, and the sample used was 37 vendors. Sampling using Simple Random Sampling technique. The data analysis method uses multiple regression with the help of SPSS 20 Software.From the results of data processing using SPSS 20 obtained the regression equation Y= -57220431.407 + 7105.565X1 + 1341.385X2 - 2428398.684X3 with tcount on sales volume = 16.164 > ttable (2.032) so that the reject Ho1; t count at the selling price = 5.806 > ttable (2.032) so that the reject Ho2; and t count on the number of types of interest = -2.868 > ttable (-2.032) so that it accepts Ho3; while Fcount (457.812) > Ftable (2.89) so reject Ho4. The correlation coefficient is worth 0.988 and the coefficient of determination is worth 0.974 which means that the sales volume, selling price, and the number of types of interest have a strong influence on the income of stall traders. Based on the value of the sensitivity of the number of types of interest to the income of stall traders obtained an elasticity value of -0.262 (inelastic).
Pengendalian Kualitas Produksi Tahu Segitiga Goreng di UMKM Raf Kota Serang Zulfa Fitriana; Eny Dwiningsih; Agustina Senjayani
Sharia Agribusiness Journal Vol 3, No 1 (2023)
Publisher : Program Studi Agribisnis UIN Syarif Hidayatullah Jakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15408/saj.v3i1.33233

Abstract

AbstractQuality of product is one of the primary factors determined business succesfulness, yet it still become a major challenge for Food Small Medium Entreprises (SMEs) to address. UMKM Raf is one of the food SMEs  produces fried triangular tofu and has plans to develop its business in order to reach a wider market segmentation through product quality improvement. With a product defect rate of 16.4 percent which is above the company's tolerance value for defective products of 5% it indicates that the quality and consistency of tofu quality control in UMKM Raf has not been achieved. This research are aimed  to study the quality control of fried tofu production; to identify the defect in fried tofu product wether it is controllable or not; to identify the major/ dominant defect in fried tofu product; to analysis factors caused the defect and propose recommendation for improvement in RAF, a prominent fried tofu manufacturer, a food SME in Serang Regency. Data collected through observation on product, process and field, checksheet forms filling, and interviews, deployed using Statistical Quality Control (SQC) approach. The population in this study is fried tofu triangle, which is 215,040 pieces with a multistage cluster random sampling. The results showed that the control of product quality was in an uncontrolled state with the values of UCL, CL and LCL respectively 0.3658; 0.1756 and 0 are out of control because there are 2 points that are above the UCL value, namely at the 8th and 27th points. The dominant type of defect is the size is not suitable and the tofu gembos has a cumulative percentage value of 51.3% and 74.0%, respectively, with the factors causing the defect are raw materials, labor, methods, machinery and the environment.Keywords : Quality Control; SQC; Control Chart p; Pareto Chart Kualitas produk merupakan salah satu faktor utama yang menentukan keberhasilan usaha, namun masih menjadi tantangan utama bagi Usaha Kecil Menengah (UKM) Pangan. UMKM Raf merupakan salah satu UKM makanan yang memproduksi tahu segitiga goreng dan berencana untuk mengembangkan usahanya guna menjangkau segmentasi pasar yang lebih luas melalui peningkatan kualitas produk. Dengan tingkat kecacatan produk sebesar 16,4 persen yang berada di atas nilai toleransi perusahaan untuk produk cacat sebesar 5% menandakan kualitas dan konsistensi pengendalian mutu tahu di UMKM Raf belum tercapai. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mempelajari pengendalian mutu produksi tahu goreng; mengidentifikasi cacat pada produk tahu goreng apakah masih dapat dikontrol atau tidak; mengidentifikasi cacat utama/dominan pada produk tahu goreng; menganalisis faktor-faktor penyebab cacat dan mengusulkan rekomendasi perbaikan di RAF, produsen tahu goreng terkemuka, sebuah UKM makanan di Kabupaten Serang. Pengumpulan data dilakukan melalui observasi produk, proses dan lapangan, pengisian formulir checksheet, dan wawancara, yang disebar dengan pendekatan Statistical Quality Control (SQC). Populasi dalam penelitian ini adalah tahu goreng segitiga sebanyak 215.040 buah dengan multistage cluster random sampling. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pengendalian mutu produk dalam keadaan tidak terkendali dengan nilai UCL, CL dan LCL masing-masing 0,3658; 0,1756 dan 0 tidak terkendali karena ada 2 titik yang berada di atas nilai UCL yaitu pada titik ke-8 dan ke-27. Jenis cacat yang dominan adalah ukuran tidak sesuai dan tahu gembo memiliki nilai persentase kumulatif masing-masing sebesar 51,3% dan 74,0%, dengan faktor penyebab cacat adalah bahan baku, tenaga kerja, metode, mesin dan lingkungan. Kata kunci : Quality Control; SQC; Peta Kendali p; Bagan Pareto
A Study on Quality Control of NFT Hydrophonic Pakcoy (Brassica rapa chinensis) in XYZ Farm, Bogor Regency Agustina Senjayani; Naufal Fahrur Rajhi; Eny Dwiningsih
PUCUK : Jurnal Ilmu Tanaman Vol 4 No 2 (2024): Desember
Publisher : Fakultas Pertanian Universitas Ratu Samban

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58222/pucuk.v4i2.373

Abstract

Besides being known for its efficiency, simplicity, and productivity, the NFT Hydroponic technique is popularly chosen for its high effectiveness in producing high-quality hydroponic vegetables with excellent plant health. This research aims to study the quality control of Hydroponic Pakcoy produced using the NFT Technique at XYZ Hydroponic Farm, Bogor Regency, through (1) identification of types and levels of damage, (2) analysis of factors causing damage; (3) proposing alternative improvements that can be made. Analysis was conducted using statistical quality control (SQC). The results showed the level of damage to hydroponic Pakcoy at XYZ hydroponic farm, which showed uncontrolled damage consisting of damaged leaves, damaged stems, and abnormal shapes or sizes. Fishbone analysis reveals the causes of damage, including lack of knowledge and negligence of labor, how to harvest, and greenhouse damage. Based on the causes of damage, recommendations for improvement that can be made are to create criteria and goals for prospective internship workers, increase the intensity of supervision, reconstruct the greenhouse, and create a slide desk.
Raw Material Inventory Control in Frozen Street Food SMEs: Applications of JIT and MRP Techniques Agustina Senjayani; Devi Novera; Dewi Rohma Wati
International Journal of Economics, Business and Innovation Research Vol. 4 No. 03 (2025): April - May, International Journal of Economics, Business and Innovation Resea
Publisher : Cita konsultindo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.63922/ijebir.v4i03.2173

Abstract

Food SMEs still encounter multiple challenges in managing their raw materials, exemplified by ABC Cireng Factory, a small and medium-sized enteprise in the frozen processed street food sector located in Depok City, dealing with issues such as recurring supruses of tapioca flour raw materials, causing cost inefficiencies and irregularities in order frequencies and quantities monthly. This study aims to assess the inventory management of tapioca flour raw materials at the ABC Cireng Factory by utilizing the company's approach alongside the Just in Time (JIT) and Material Requirement Planning (MRP) methods; to compare all these methods, and ultimately, to suggest a more effective inventory control approach suitable to be implemented. The study reveals that the company's approach results in a total cost of tapioca flour raw material inventory amounting to IDR 11,197,514,500, with an annual raw material purchase of 525,400 kg and an order frequency of 200 times. Using the JIT approach, the overall inventory expense reaches IDR 35,667,065, with a single order size of 1,035 kg and an order frequency of 502 occurrences. In the MIDR approach utilizing the Lot for Lot (LFL) method, the overall inventory cost amounts to IDR 10,067,554,320, featuring a total raw material inventory of 474,950 kg annually and an order frequency of 44 times. With the MIDR method utilizing the Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) approach, the overall inventory cost amounts to IDR 10,790,524,400 for an order quantity of 50,976 kg and an order frequency of 10 occurrences. The MIDR approach utilizing the LFL technique is the most appropriate method for implementation at the ABC Cireng Factory.