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Journal : economic development analysis journal

Are Geopolitical, Economy, and Social Affecting Unemployments? Evidence From ASEAN-5 Danang Tri Hatmaja; Muhammad Khoirul Fuddin
Economics Development Analysis Journal Vol 12 No 1 (2023): Economics Development Analysis Journal
Publisher : Economics Development Department, Universitas Negeri Semarang, Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/edaj.v12i1.59439

Abstract

East and Southeast Asia gain tremendous economic and political advantages in terms of economic geopolitics (GPE). However, the impact that emerged in the GPE was further exacerbated by the emergence of the covid pandemic, "one belt, one road" in the global economic and geopolitical recession, which caused figures to soar in several ASEAN countries which is one of the challenges related to economic development. This study used the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) based on de jure an d de facto KOFGI panel data in ASEAN-5 from 1991-2019 to explore the short and long-term relationship between geopolitical, economic, and social factors on the unemployment rate. The results of this study reveal that the four variables have two co-integration relationships: especially in the long term, economic factors harm the unemployment, meanwhile, social and political factors have not provided a conducive influence to maintain the unemployment impact, and they promote no mutual mechanism benefit. The findings also show a negative correlation between political factors and an increase in de facto unemployment. It indicates that the political environment impacts a decrease in social and economic variables. Furthermore, the shock of the loss of de jure economic stability has adverse social and political interactions, thereby increasing the unemployment rate. This due to the critical role of economic stability to reduce the unemployment in ASEAN-5 countries.
Does Corruption, Unemployment, and Investment Affect Economic Growth in ASEAN-9 Haldi, Muhammad; Fuddin, Muhammad Khoirul
Economics Development Analysis Journal Vol 13 No 1 (2024): Economics Development Analysis Journal
Publisher : Economics Development Department, Universitas Negeri Semarang, Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

This research aims to analyze causality relationships and see the impact of different periods on the short- and long-term macroeconomic and non-economic variables in nine ASEAN countries, using the period from 2012 to 2022. This research uses the Granger causality approach and the Vector Error Correction Model to answer the problems in this research. The empirical results show no causal relationship between the variations in macroeconomic and non-economic variables used in this research. However, in the short term, we found that the interaction of macroeconomic and non-economic variables had a significant mutual influence. On the other hand, in the long term, corruption and unemployment have a significant and negative effect on economic growth, followed by foreign direct investment, which has a significant and positive effect on economic growth. More than that, we found an interesting thing: short- and long-term corruption is like a double-edged sword. In the short term, corruption is a driving force in the ASEAN economy, but in the long term, it causes something destructive for economic growth.