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Journal : Quantitative Economics Research

Economic Convergence across the Toba Lake Region Sipahutar, Mangasa Augustinus
Quantitative Economics Research Articles in Press 2019
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Malang

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Abstract

AbstractBased on the economic sectors, seven districts across the Toba Lake Region (TLR) has similar patterns in economic development ? agriculture, trade and construction are dominant economic sectors, however, there is an unconvergence economic growth across the TLR. It was found that the relationship between economic growth and unemployment in Toba and Dairi, and between economic growth and poverty in Toba, Dairi and Humbang can not be explained due to insignificant coefficient between economic growth to unemployment and poverty. Economic growth is not strong enough to reduce unemployment and poverty. It needs higher economic growth to influence of reducing both unemployment and poverty. In this case, dominant economic sectors in each district need a serious attention to promote higher growth that could significantly reduce unemployment and poverty. The highest strength of economic growth in reducing unemployment occurred in Simalungun which increasing economic growth by 1 per cent could reduce unemployment by 3,021 per cent, where in North Tapanuli, increase in economic growth by 1 per cent could reduce poverty by 4,534 per cent. Thus, the integration policies through prioritization of economic key drivers based on absolute advantage of each economic sector across the TLR is needed.Key words: economic convergence, economic growth, unemployment, povertyJEL Classification: O11; O21
Determination of Monetary Transmission through the Types of Credit on Economic Growth Sipahutar, Mangasa Augustinus
Quantitative Economics Research Vol 1, No 1 (2018)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Malang

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Abstract

Banks credit by usage (working capital, investment and consumer credit) and by economic sectors (agricultural, mining, industrial, trade and services) on Indonesian economic growth explainedthe role of banks credit as a monetary transmission channel. Banks credit for investment, agricultural, industrial, trade and services, have a significant effect on economic growth. Thus, as a growth accelerating factor, investment credit aimed to financing agricultural, industrial, trade and services areable to promote qualified growth of Indonesian economy as well as reducing unemployment rate. This study uses bankscredit data by usage, economic sectors, economic growth and unemployment rate in the period of 1991-2014. Model estimation on the relationship between banks credit by usage on economic growth and unemployment using ECM (Error Correction Mechanism) model, while the relationship between banks credit by economic sectors oneconomic growth using in?difference regressionon OLS (Ordinary Least Square) model.Credit depth as the ratio between banks credit and economic growth is only appropriate for the analysis of banks credit relationship usage on economic growth, while by economic sectors, their role depend on the magnitude of credit portfolio to total banks credit.Keywords: credit by economic sectors; credit by usage; economic growthJEL Codes: E6, O2, O4
Credit Depth on Indonesian Regional Economic Development Sipahutar, Mangasa Augustinus
Quantitative Economics Research Vol 1, No 2 (2018)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Malang

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Abstract

From regional perspective, the role of banks credit is important to encourage the economic real sectors. Local government spending aimed to enhancing regional economic growth, if supported by adequate banks credit will encourage regional economic growth. Using VAR model revealed that provinces showed different responses to the causality between credit depth and regional economic growth. Panel data analysis revealed, there is a positive relationship between regional credit depth and real regional economic growth percapita, and 68 percent of real regional economic growth percapita can be explained by credit depth. Increasing credit depth by 1 basis point will increase regional economic growth by 0.03 basis points. Furthermore, increasing credit depth by 1 basis point in t-1, will reduce regional poverty by 0.16 basis points in period t. The model showed that 23 percent of the variance of poverty can be explained by credit depth in the previous year. Keywords: credit depth, economic growth, regional economic developmentJEL Classification: E61; G28; O23