Garuda - Garba Rujukan Digital

Application of ARIMA to Curly Red Chili Prices in Bengkulu City Melda Juliza; Puce Angreni
INSOLOGI: Jurnal Sains dan Teknologi Vol. 2 No. 2 (2023): April 2023
Publisher : Yayasan Literasi Sains Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55123/insologi.v2i2.1871

Curly red chili in Bengkulu City often experiences price fluctuations from time to time. These price fluctuations are sometimes very extreme, causing public unrest both for food processing industry entrepreneurs and for daily household needs. Therefore, this study uses time series techniques to predict the price of curly red chili in Bengkulu City. This study discusses chili price forecasting using the Box-Jenkins ARIMA model based on curly red chili price data in Bengkulu City from 03 October 2022 to 28 February 2023. This research aims to look at the accuracy of the best model for curly red chili prices in Bengkulu city for the ARIMA model based on ACF & PACF criteria with autocorrelation coefficient values, and the smallest AIC criteria with the auto.arima function in R software. Next, forecast the price of curly red chili in Bengkulu City for the next period with the ARIMA model based on the best criteria obtained. Based on the ADF test, it can be seen that the data is not stationary so the data differencing process is carried out. The analysis results show that the best ARIMA model for curly red chili price data in Bengkulu City is the automatic ARIMA model with the smallest AIC criteria using the auto.arima function with the value of RMSE is 4197.7. The ARIMA model that is formed is the ARIMA (1,1,1) model. Next, the results of forecasting the price of curly red chili for Bengkulu City obtained based on the ARIMA (1,1,1) on 01 March 2023 is Rp 41,700.

Comparison of Methods ARIMA and MAR Models with MODWT Decomposition on Non-Stationary Data Angreni, Puce; Melda Juliza
INSOLOGI: Jurnal Sains dan Teknologi Vol. 2 No. 2 (2023): April 2023
Publisher : Yayasan Literasi Sains Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55123/insologi.v2i2.1888

The forecasting methods used in this study are Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Multiscale Autoregressive (MAR). The ARIMA model does not include predictor variables in the model. The MAR model is a model that performs the transformation process using wavelets. The MAR model adopts an autoregressive time series (AR) model with wavelet coefficients and scale coefficients as predictors. The wavelet coefficient and scale are obtained by decomposition using Maximal Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transformation (MODWT). MODWT functions to describe data based on the level of each wavelet filter. This study aims to determine the best forecasting model using ARIMA and MAR models. The time series data used in this study is data on the rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar. Data on the rupiah exchange rate against the US Dollar for 2019-2020 is non-stationary data, so the ARIMA and MAR models can be used in this study.

Indonesian Student Research Olympiad for SMA N 1 Mirit Students Prabowo, Agung; Chandra, Novita Eka; Juliza, Melda; Arumingtyas, Felinda
Shof Journal of Social Impact Vol. 1 No. 3 (2024): December
Publisher : Shof Literacy Community

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Olimpiade Penelitian Siswa Indonesia (OPSI) is a prestigious event that provides opportunities for students to develop research and innovation skills. This community service activity aims to guide and prepare students of SMA N 1 Mirit in facing OPSI. The benefits obtained by students after carrying out this activity are being able to master the material and being able to carry out research. The methods used in the guidance activities are the presentation of research methods, strategies, discussions and questions and answers. The results of the guidance activities are the level of student understanding in research methods of 75%, and the level of student interest of 80%.

Average Based Length Fuzzy Time Series Data Seasonal untuk Prediksi Volume Impor Migas Indonesia Adika Setia Brata; Alfian Anhar; Windy Lestari; Melda Juliza; Suci Rahmawati; M Tantry Abeng Evan Nugroho
Jurnal Ekonomi Manajemen dan Sekretari Vol. 6 No. 1 (2021): AGUSTUS 2021
Publisher : Sekretariat Pusat Lembaga Komunitas Informasi Teknologi Aceh

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35870/jemensri.v6i1.1764

This study aims to predict the value of Indonesian oil and gas imports using the Fuzzy Time Series method of determining average-based intervals (Average Based Length). The data used in this research is annual periodic data from 2013-2021 which was downloaded from the bps.go.id website. The research results show that the volume value of oil and gas imports in Indonesia in January 2023 will reach 4125,802 thousand tons. This research can be concluded that the accuracy of the estimation is very good, producing a MAPE value of 8.04%. The MAPE value is defined as having very good estimation results if the MAPE value is <10%.

Peningkatan Kompetensi Literasi Digital untuk Siswa SMK Citra Bangsa Mandiri Berbasis Sains Data Chandra, Novita Eka; Arumningtyas, Felinda; Juliza, Melda
Journal of Sustainable Community Development Vol. 3 No. 3 (2025): Journal of Sustainable Community Development
Publisher : MID Publisher International

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.60036/4bnw2x26

Literasi digital merupakan keterampilan penting di era Revolusi Industri 4.0, khususnya bagi lulusan SMK yang disiapkan untuk segera berkarier di dunia industri. Kegiatan pengabdian ini bertujuan untuk meningkatkan kompetensi literasi digital siswa SMK Citra Bangsa Mandiri melalui pendekatan sains data. Metode pelatihan dirancang dalam enam sesi interaktif yang mengintegrasikan praktik pengolahan data, visualisasi, serta pengenalan etika digital. Hasil evaluasi berbasis pre-test dan post-test menunjukkan kenaikan skor rata-rata dari 52,5 ke 80,6, dengan nilai gain 0,591 yang tergolong kategori sedang. Hasil angket kepuasan menunjukkan keterlibatan dan pemahaman yang meningkat secara signifikan. Kesimpulan menunjukkan bahwa pelatihan berbasis sains data mampu memperkuat dimensi teknis dan etis dari literasi digital serta mendorong siswa untuk berpikir kritis dan berbasis data. Program ini direkomendasikan untuk diintegrasikan ke dalam pembelajaran reguler SMK.

Science Research Olympiad Preparation Assistance: Application of Differential and Integral in Radioactive Decay Prabowo, Agung; Chandra, Novita Eka; Juliza, Melda; Arumningtyas, Felinda
International Journal of Research in Community Services Vol. 6 No. 3 (2025): International Journal of Research in Community Service (IJRCS)
Publisher : Research Collaboration Community (Rescollacom)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46336/ijrcs.v6i3.1044

Performance not only a source of pride for students, but also for schools. The Indonesian Student Research Olympiad (OPSI) is a national-level activity recognized by the National Achievement Center (PUSPRESNAS). Schools need to provide guidance to support their students in participating in OPSI competitions, one of which is in mathematics. The purpose of this community service is to provide new learning experiences to students at SMA Negeri 1 Mirit, Kebumen Regency, in managing real-world problems and using mathematics to find solutions. Examples given are the problem of medication timing and radioactive decay. The community service method consists of material presentation, class discussions, and providing examples of problems that can be solved using similar methods. The community service is carried out once for 2 hours, the results of the community service are measured by a questionnaire, and of the 20 students who participated in the activity, all agreed that this community service provided a new learning experience that was different from the learning experience during the lessons.

Pengabdian Berbasis Hasil-Hasil Riset Etnomatematika kepada Guru Matematika SMA IT Al Irsyad Al Islamiyyah Purwokerto Prabowo, Agung; Novita Eka Chandra; Melda Juliza; Felinda Arumningtyas
Joong-Ki : Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Vol. 5 No. 2: Februari 2026
Publisher : CV. Ulil Albab Corp

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.56799/joongki.v5i2.14374

Etnomatematika adalah matematika berbasis budaya yang menjadikan budaya sebagai landasan dalam melakukan riset. Hasil-hasil riset etnomatematika berguna sebagai materi pembelajaran di ruang kelas untuk siswa, termasuk juga mahasiswa. Pengabdian ini menyasar pada guru-guru sebagai mitra pengabdian untuk menyampaikan hasil-hasil riset pengusul/pengabdi yang telah diteliti sejak 2015. Materi yang diterima mitra guru akan diolah, dikembangkan dan disampaikan kepada siswa-siswanya. Pengabdian ini menjawab permasalahan kebutuhan mitra terhadap materi etnomatematika terbaru terkait dengan pengembangan diri mitra guru terhadap akses dan penguasaan etnomatematika. Solusi untuk mengatasi masalah tersebut adalah dengan mengenalkan materi etnomatematika terbaru tentang penyandian angka tahun, khususnya sengkala dihyang. Metode pengabdian berupa penyampaian materi kepada para guru (sosialisasi), telaah artikel dan bedah buku etnomatematika hasil karya pengabdi.

Analisis Survival Menggunakan Regresi Eksponensial, Cox Proporsional dan Frailty pada Penderita TBC Felinda Arumningtyas; Melda Juliza; Sherly Steffiyani Askarilia
UJMC (Unisda Journal of Mathematics and Computer Science) Vol 11 No 1 (2025): Unisda Journal of Mathematics and Computer Science
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Faculty of Sciences and Technology Unisda Lamongan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.52166/ujmc.v11i1.8912

According to the WHO Global TB Report 2020, Indonesia is among the countries with the highest tuberculosis (TB) burden worldwide, with an estimated 845.000 people affected by TB and 98.000 deaths, which translates to 11 deaths per hour. However, only 67% of these cases have been identified and treated, leaving around 283.000 TB patients undiagnosed and untreated, putting them at risk of spreading the disease to others. This study aims to examine the factors that impact the recovery time of TB patients through Exponential regression and Cox Proportional Hazards (Cox-PH) regression. Additionally, unmeasured factors are incorporated into the model using the frailty model approach. The data used were medical records of 153 TB patients at Soehadi Prijonegoro Regional Public Hospital in Sragen. The study results show that the Cox-PH regression model yields a lower AIC value compared to the Exponential regression and frailty models, indicating that the survival analysis performance using the Cox-PH regression is superior to the other two models. Based on the Cox-PH regression modeling, the factors affecting the recovery duration of TB patients are comorbidities, previous cases, and diagnosis.

Peramalan Kemiskinan di Kabupaten Banyumas Menggunakan Regresi Nonparametrik dengan Pendekatan Kernel Nadaraya Watson Adjusted Novita Eka Chandra; Melda Juliza; Muhammad Hafidh Nashrullah
UJMC (Unisda Journal of Mathematics and Computer Science) Vol 11 No 1 (2025): Unisda Journal of Mathematics and Computer Science
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Faculty of Sciences and Technology Unisda Lamongan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.52166/ujmc.v11i1.10646

Poverty is a serious challenge faced by the Banyumas Regency Government. Although the poverty rate in this region has shown a declining trend for more than a decade, the pattern of decline has not been linear. This study utilizes time series data representing the percentage of the poor population in Banyumas Regency from 2003 to 2024. This research primarily seeks to forecast the poverty rate in 2030 and to differentiate between the performance of two kernel functions, Gaussian and Epanechnikov, which are applied in nonparametric regression using the adjusted Nadaraya-Watson kernel approach. Analysis results suggest that the model performs best when the bandwidth is set at its optimal value of 0,538909 using the Epanechnikov kernel function. Based on the forecast, the poverty rate in 2030 is estimated to be 12,87%. This result indicates the need for well-planned strategies and policies by the Banyumas Regency Government to reduce the poverty rate over the next six years.

Pengabdian Berbasis Hasil-Hasil Riset Etnomatematika kepada Guru Matematika SMA IT Al Irsyad Al Islamiyyah Purwokerto Agung Prabowo; Novita Eka Chandra; Melda Juliza; Felinda Arumningtyas
Joong-Ki : Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Vol. 5 No. 2: Februari 2026
Publisher : CV. Ulil Albab Corp

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.56799/joongki.v5i2.14374

Etnomatematika adalah matematika berbasis budaya yang menjadikan budaya sebagai landasan dalam melakukan riset. Hasil-hasil riset etnomatematika berguna sebagai materi pembelajaran di ruang kelas untuk siswa, termasuk juga mahasiswa. Pengabdian ini menyasar pada guru-guru sebagai mitra pengabdian untuk menyampaikan hasil-hasil riset pengusul/pengabdi yang telah diteliti sejak 2015. Materi yang diterima mitra guru akan diolah, dikembangkan dan disampaikan kepada siswa-siswanya. Pengabdian ini menjawab permasalahan kebutuhan mitra terhadap materi etnomatematika terbaru terkait dengan pengembangan diri mitra guru terhadap akses dan penguasaan etnomatematika. Solusi untuk mengatasi masalah tersebut adalah dengan mengenalkan materi etnomatematika terbaru tentang penyandian angka tahun, khususnya sengkala dihyang. Metode pengabdian berupa penyampaian materi kepada para guru (sosialisasi), telaah artikel dan bedah buku etnomatematika hasil karya pengabdi.

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