Angga Hergastyasmawan
Politeknik Negeri Samarinda

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The Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic and Macroeconomics on the Sharia Stock Indexes in Indonesia Muhammad Khozin Ahyar; Angga Hergastyasmawan; Dzul Febrian
Jurnal Ekonomi Syariah Teori dan Terapan Vol. 10 No. 4 (2023): Juli-2023
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20473/vol10iss20234pp322-336

Abstract

ABSTRACT The Covid-19 pandemic has changed economic conditions in various countries, including Indonesia. One of the sectors affected is the capital market sector which can also describe the economic condition of a country through the stock index. This article aimed to analyze the impact of Covid-19 and the macroeconomics on the Islamic stock index in Indonesia (ISSI and JII). Macroeconomic variables are included in the model as an update. This study used a quantitative method using the VECM model. Research variable data were obtained from investing websites (ISSI and JII), Indonesian covid-19 task force websites (Covid-19 Cases), Statistics Indonesia (BPS),and BI (BI Rate, Inflation, Exchange rates, etc.) from March 2020 to December 2022. Based on the research results, covid-19 and the macroeconomics have no effect on the sharia stock index in Indonesia, except for the BI Rate. This is due to the fairly tight fundamental selection of constituent issuers of the Islamic stock index, the speed and accuracy of Covid-19 control and the massive education. This result has implications for the selection of investors in stocks that are included in the Islamic stock index in Indonesia, because it is proven that ISSI and JII are quite immune to the Covid-19 pandemic. Keywords: Islamic Stock, ISSI, JII, Covid-19 Pandemic, Macroeconomic. ABSTRAK Pandemi covid-19 telah merubah kondisi perekonomian di berbagai Negara, termasuk Indonesia. Salah satu sektor yang terdampak adalah sektor pasar modal yang juga dapat menggambarkan kondisi perekonomian suatu Negara melalu indeks saham. Artikel ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis dampak covid-19 dan makro ekonomi terhadap indeks saham syariah di Indonesia (ISSI dan JII). Variabel ekonomi makro yang dimasukkan ke dalam model sebagai pembaharuan, karena indeks saham dapat mencerminkan kondisi ekonomi suatu Negara. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode kuantitatif dengan menggunakan model VECM. Data variabel penelitian diperoleh dari website investing (ISSI dan JII), website satgas covid-19 Indonesia (Total Kasus Covid-19), BPS (BI Rate, Inflasi) dan BI (Kurs, Cadangan Devisa, Jumlah Uang yang Beredar) dari bulan Maret 2020 sampai dengan Desember 2022. Hasilnya pandemi covid-19 dan makro economi tidak berpengaruh terhadap indeks saham syariah di Indonesia, kecuali BI Rate. Hal tersebut dikarenakan cukup ketatnya seleksi fundamental emiten konstituen indeks saham syariah, kecepatan dan ketepatan pengendalian covid-19 serta edukasi pasar modal syariah yang masif. Hasil ini berimplikasi pada pemilihan investor pada saham-saham yang masuk ke dalam indeks saham syariah di Indonesia, karena terbukti bahwa ISSI dan JII cukup kebal dengan adanya pandemi covid-19. Kata Kunci: Saham Syariah, ISSI, JII, Pandemi Covid-19, Makro Ekonomi
Do Global Uncertainty Factors Affect Islamic Banking Stability? Evidence from Indonesia Angga Hergastyasmawan; Ellen D Oktanti Irianto; Sigit Hartoko; Lukmanul Hakim; Nur Rizqi Febriandika
Al-Tijary Vol. 11 No. 2 (2026): AL-TIJARY VOL. 11, NO. 2, JUNI 2026
Publisher : Faculty of Islamic Economics and Business Sultan Aji Muhammad Idris State Islamic University Samarinda

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21093/6pw3h393

Abstract

Growing global uncertainty increasingly challenges banking stability, particularly in emerging economies vulnerable to external economic and geopolitical shocks. Although Islamic commercial banks are considered more resilient under Sharia principles, evidence on how different dimensions of global uncertainty affect their stability remains limited. This study investigates the long-run and short-run effects of global uncertainty on Islamic Commercial bank stability in Indonesia during 2016–2025 using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Global uncertainty is proxied by U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU), U.S. Geopolitical Risk (GPR), and the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), while interest rates, exchange rates, and inflation serve as domestic control variables. In the long run, EPU and GPR positively affect Islamic bank stability, whereas inflation has a significant negative effect. The volatility index, interest rates, and exchange rates are insignificant, and no variables significantly influence stability in the short run. These findings indicate gradual long-run adjustment to external shocks. This study demonstrates that global uncertainty affects Islamic bank stability through distinct transmission mechanisms, implying that regulators should strengthen macroprudential policies while Islamic banks should enhance long-term resilience against external shocks.