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All Journal SMATIKA
Warna Agung Cahyono
Universitas Anwar Medika, Indonesia
Education

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Sistem Informasi Analisa Kelulusan Mahasiswa Asia Menggunakan Exponential Smoothing Brown-Additive Warna Agung Cahyono; Sri Anggraini Kusuma Dewi
SMATIKA JURNAL Vol 10 No 01 (2020): SMATIKA Jurnal : STIKI Informatika Jurnal
Publisher : LPPM STIKI MALANG

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32664/smatika.v10i01.441

Abstract

C4.5, K-Nearest Neighbours (KNN), Naive Bayes, and SVM algorithm can be used to estimate whether a student passes or not. However, the method cannot estimate the remaining shortcomings of the credits taken by students. The author proposes using a comparison of single exponential smoothing and brown-additive exponential smoothing to analyze students’ graduation for the estimated credit they will take. Data series in the form of total credits graduated in the semester achievement index by taking into account the data confirmed students have graduated. The use of exponential smoothing with the additive tren model shows better results than the single model. The tren model was tested on 759 students who had graduated from 2010 to 2015. The best testing uses MAE occurred in the ES tren model with an alpha parameter of 0.75 and a beta parameter of 0.5 with an inaccurate difference in the estimation of the next semester's credit as many as 0,36 credits.
Co-Authors Sri Anggraeni Kusuma Dewi Sri Anggraini Kusuma Dewi