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Qualitative Behavioral Analysis in Mosquito Dynamics Model with Wolbachia Suandi, Dani; Ilahi, Fadilah; Ramdhani, Randi; Nugraha, Edwin Setiawan
Communication in Biomathematical Sciences Vol. 6 No. 1 (2023)
Publisher : The Indonesian Bio-Mathematical Society

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.5614/cbms.2023.6.1.1

Abstract

The Aedes Aegypti mosquito is the primary vector that can transmit diseases to humans such as zika, dengue fever, chikungunya, and yellow fever. This mosquito species is controlled to reduce the frequency of its bites on humans. Several methods have been developed to control mosquito populations, ranging from natural insecticides to artificial ones. However, the impact of these insecticides leads to resistance. Wolbachia bacteria as a promising alternative in reducing the spread of viruses on humans due to free resistance. This work constructs a genetic population model in the form of differential equation system that describes mosquito population dynamics by involving random mating between mosquito populations with and without Wolbachia bacteria. The stability of the equilibrium was analyzed locally here. Numerical simulations and sensitivity analyzes are presented to confirm the analytical results and investigate the effect of the parameters involved on the model. The results show that the success of the expansion of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes depends on the fitness level of the mosquito species. The more Wolbachia mosquitoes are released into nature, the more possibility this mosquito expansion will be successful.
ESTIMATION OF VALUE AT RISK FOR GENERAL INSURANCE COMPANY STOCKS USING THE GARCH MODEL Nugraha, Edwin Setiawan; Olivia, Agna; Sudding, Fauziah Nur Fahirah; Lestari, Karunia Eka
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 19 No 2 (2025): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol19iss2pp1071-1082

Abstract

Investment plays a crucial role in supporting economic development by allocating funds to generate future profits. Among various investment options, stock investment is widely popular. However, investors face the challenge of developing strategies to maximize returns while minimizing risks. Effective investment requires understanding the potential maximum risk of loss, known as Value at Risk (VaR). This research focuses on estimating VaR for four top general insurance companies in Indonesia: PT Lippo General Insurance Tbk (LPGI), PT Asuransi Tugu Pratama Indonesia Tbk (TUGU), PT Victoria Insurance Tbk (VINS), and PT Asuransi Dayin Mitra Tbk (ASDM). These companies were selected due to their leading positions in the industry. The Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model, an extension of the ARIMA method designed to handle volatility clustering, is utilized for VaR estimation. Results at confidence levels of 90%, 95%, and 99% reveal that VINS carries the highest risk, with a maximum VaR of IDR 2,848,710 at 99% confidence, while LPGI shows the lowest risk, with a maximum VaR of IDR 22,677. For TUGU, the maximum possible loss is IDR 517,589, and for ASDM, it is IDR 1,532,267. Backtesting confirms the reliability of the models, with some accepted at specific significance levels. Based on this analysis, the results can help investors make investment decisions that minimize potential losses, specifically in the four stocks analyzed.
CLUSTERING BASED ON BETWEENNESS CENTRALITY IN PERIOD: TRANSFORMATION OF CORRELATION COEFFICIENT VALUE INTO DISTANCE IN MATRIC SPACE Yudhanegara, Mokhammad Ridwan; Nugraha, Edwin Setiawan; Sylviani, Sisilia; Lestari, Karunia Eka; Bonyah, Ebenezer
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 19 No 2 (2025): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol19iss2pp1109-1118

Abstract

The main information of this research is the transformation of the correlation coefficient value for stock price into the distance. It is done to create a representation in metric space that can be used in cluster analysis on the correlation network, which is a dynamic network. The dynamic network is generated from the weighted edges in the form of distances in each period. Finding the cluster members of the network can be analyzed using a simple technique called a minimum spanning tree. The central cluster member is the vertex betweenness. Vertex betweenness represents banking companies with a high degree of proximity and correlation. It means that the banks that are members of the central cluster are banks with high investment value. Clustering based on betweenness centrality in the case study of stock price correlation becomes useful when transforming the value of the correlation coefficient to distance. The effort to build a network with the edge weight being the distance makes the minimum spanning tree a simple, valuable method for cluster analysis on bank stock prices. In particular, the benefit to investors, i.e., it can reveal which assets are closely correlated, indicating that they may respond to market events in a similar way and make decisions in stock purchases
Tucker3 Tensor Decomposition for the Standardized Residual Hypermatrix on Three-Way Correspondence Analysis Lestari, Karunia Eka; Yudhanegara, Mokhammad Ridwan; Nugraha, Edwin Setiawan; Sylviani, Sisilia
Journal of the Indonesian Mathematical Society Vol. 31 No. 2 (2025): JUNE
Publisher : IndoMS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22342/jims.v31i2.1491

Abstract

This study investigates the theoretical and practical mathematical aspects of Tucker3 tensor decomposition from the three-way correspondence analysis point of view. Since the standardized residual hypermatrix represents the association of the three categorical variables, this study focused on (1) Tucker3 tensor decomposition for the standardized residual hypermatrix, (2) some mathematical properties of Tucker3 tensor decomposition, and (3) constructing the correspondence plot via Tucker3 tensor decomposition. Some mathematical results are presented in lemmas, theorems and algorithms, while a practical result is exhibited at the end of the discussion.
Mobile Ad-Hoc Network (MANET) Method: Some Trends and Open Issues Wijonarko, Dwi; Arifin, Samsul; Faisal, Muhammad; Pratama, Muhammad Nabil; Priambodo, Okta Nindita; Nugraha, Edwin Setiawan
Recent in Engineering Science and Technology Vol. 3 No. 2 (2025): RiESTech Volume 03 No. 02 Years 2025
Publisher : MBI

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59511/riestech.v3i2.108

Abstract

This study analyzes the latest developments and trends in the field of Mobile Ad-Hoc Networks (MANET) through a bibliometric approach using a metadata dataset from publications taken from Scopus between 2021 and 2024. By utilizing VOSviewer to visualize the data, the study identified key keywords that dominated the MANET literature, such as "security", "routing protocols", "mobility", and "5G". The visualization results show several important clusters, including topics related to network security, vehicle networks (VANET), and the application of advanced technologies such as machine learning in network management. Despite the decline in the number of publications in 2023 and 2024, collaboration between authors continues to show a strong trend. The research also highlights various challenges that are still open problems, such as the development of efficient routing protocols, improving network security, and managing resources in a dynamic MANET environment. In addition to the VOSviewer analysis, further exploration was carried out using the built-in visualization tools from the Scopus web platform to enrich the interpretation of emerging topics and research connections. This was followed by a deeper conceptual mapping using Scopus AI, which provided a visual breakdown of interconnected themes such as security issues, routing protocols, and different network types like VANET and FANET. To complement and validate the findings, the study also incorporated evidence based summaries retrieved from Consensus.app, offering additional insights from AI-driven scientific consensus. This multi-platform approach enhances the reliability of the analysis and provides a more comprehensive view of current and future research directions in the MANET domain.
Forecasting the Stock Price of PT Astra International Using the LSTM Method Nugraha, Edwin Setiawan; Alika, Zalfani; Amir Hamzah, Dadang
Jurnal RESTI (Rekayasa Sistem dan Teknologi Informasi) Vol 8 No 3 (2024): June 2024
Publisher : Ikatan Ahli Informatika Indonesia (IAII)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29207/resti.v8i3.5699

Abstract

Stocks are one of the long-term investment options and represent ownership in a company that can be acquired through buying and selling. Investment carries both the profit potential and the risks that investors must face when providing their capital to companies. Accurate stock price forecasts are very important because they provide an estimate of risk. This research aims to forecast the stock price of PT Astra International Tbk (ASII.JK) using a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) method. Data set closing stock prices were taken from January 2, 2015, to December 30, 2020, with a total observation of 1506. This data set is divided into 80% for training and 20% for training. The forecasting results show that the best performances have MSE, MSE, MAE and MAPE are 151.910, 23076.561, 118.128, and 2.3%, respectively. The model has a batch size of 4 and epochs of 50. This research recommends that other parties consider this method when they need to manage their investment risk in stocks.
THE APPLICATION OF STANDARD GENERALIZED AUTOREGRESSIVE CONDITIONAL HETEROSCEDASTICITY (SGARCH) MODEL IN FORECASTING THE STOCK PRICE OF BARITO PACIFIC Nugraha, Edwin Setiawan; Alvina, Celine
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 18 No 2 (2024): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol18iss2pp0849-0862

Abstract

Stock potentially yields higher returns than other investments, but is riskier due to volatile prices. To minimize the risk of loss, investors can forecast the stock price to help in deciding whether to buy, sell, or hold the stock. Several methods are available for forecasting the stock price such as ARIMA, ARCH, and SGARCH. ARIMA model works best for series with a constant variance of error. However, almost all stock price series have a non-constant variance of error, known as heteroscedasticity, as such ARIMA isn’t suited for modeling the stock price. In contrast, the SGARCH model can handle series with heteroscedasticity. This makes it better suited for modeling stock prices as they have similar characteristics. PT Barito Pacific (BRPT) is a publicly traded firm that works mainly in petrochemical and geothermal energy. BRPT’s net profit increased in 2023 by 243% and the demand for geothermal energy is expected to increase due to the government's renewable energy transition project. Therefore, this study forecasts the BRPT’s stock price using the SGARCH model with R Studio. The stock price used ranges from October 1st, 2018 to August 16th, 2023 gotten from the Yahoo Finance Website. Based on the least AIC, this study found that ARMA(6,2)-SGARCH(1,1) is the best model for forecasting the stock price. This model gives a very accurate prediction of the stock price from April 1st, 2023 – April 19th, 2023 with a mean absolute error of 78.11, root mean square error of 89.51, and mean absolute percentage error of 9.81%.
CORRESPONDENCE ANALYSIS ON STATISTICAL LITERACY AND GENDER: EMBEDDING E-CAMPUS PLATFORM WITH RANDOM ASSIGNMENT OF MATCHED SUBJECT IN EXPLANATORY ANALYSIS Lestari, Karunia Eka; Risnawita, Risnawita; Yudhanegara, Mokhammad Ridwan; Nugraha, Edwin Setiawan; Sylviani, Sisilia
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 18 No 3 (2024): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol18iss3pp1975-1988

Abstract

This study aims to evaluate the embedding of e-campus platforms during the pandemic in dealing with gender disparities in statistical literacy and shed light on the association structure between statistical literacy and gender disparities. A mixed methods approach with sequential explanatory analysis was performed among 42 pairs (man-woman) sample of sophomore students enrolled in the Inferential Statistics course selected from a random assignment of matched subjects. The two main instruments, the placement test, and the statistical literacy test, were analyzed quantitatively using the Mann-Whitney test and correspondence analysis, followed by qualitative analysis using image and text analysis. The findings reveal that the e-campus platform has increased women's statistical literacy. Specifically, there is a statistically significant difference (1) between men's and women's statistical literacy scores, (2) an association between statistical literacy level and gender, and (3) different tendencies between men's and women's statistical literacy in various ways. The e-campus platform is an excellent solution for the teaching and learning process during the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond. Likewise, it can overcome gender disparities in literacy statistics. Since these findings lead to a higher statistical literacy rate for women than men, this could break the stereotype that women are less statistically literate than men.
RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS IN HYPOTHESIS TESTING TO EVALUATE INDONESIA'S GINI RATIO AFTER COVID-19 PANDEMIC Lestari, Karunia Eka; Agustina, Fitriani; Yudhanegara, Mokhammad Ridwan; Nugraha, Edwin Setiawan; Sylviani, Sisilia
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 18 No 4 (2024): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol18iss4pp2517-2530

Abstract

The study highlighted three essential roles of retrospective analysis in hypothesis testing, particularly as a priori analysis, post hoc analysis, and sensitivity analysis. These approaches were applied to the Gini ratio data sourced from the National Socioeconomic Survey Indonesia 2023 to examine the income inequality level in Indonesia. The sample size, statistical power, and effect size for the one-sample t-test are evaluated by aid G*Power software. The test results show that for a sample size of 10, at the 95% confidence interval, there is not enough evidence to show that the Gini ratio in 2023 is smaller than 0.4. A retrospective analysis using G*power software reveals that for a sample size of 20 at the same confidence interval, there is enough evidence to suggest that the Gini ratio is statistically significant at less than 0.4 with a power of analysis of 90.8% and an effect size of 0.76. This study has important implications in hypothesis testing, especially in retrospective analysis, since understanding the effect of sample size and effect size makes it possible for academics or practitioners to optimize hypothesis testing and generate more accurate and reliable test results.
Public Speaking Dalam Menunjang Kemampuan Komunikasi Milenial Di Dunia Kerja Nugraha, Edwin Setiawan; Rahadi, Dedi Rianto; Khaerunnisa, Ine; Azizah, Jasmine; Zalukhu, Jernihlawati; Ramadhan, Joko Iwan; Ardiansyah, Trio
Lentera Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Vol. 1 No. 2 (2023): Lentera Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat
Publisher : Lentera Ilmu Madani

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

Komunikasi adalah cara menyampaikan informasi terhadap orang lain yang bisa dilakukan secara langsung atau tidak sama sekali. Turunan dari komunikasi ini sangatlah banyak dan penting dalam kehidupan sehari-hari khususnya bagi buruh maupun pelajar/mahasiswa yang sering berkomunikasi atau bersosialisasi, tetapi komunikasi memiliki banyak sekali jenis dan juga cara melakukannya dengan baik dan benar. Dengan latar belakang tersebut, seminar ini bertujuan untuk meningkatkan kesadaran masyarakat tentang komunikasi yang sangat penting dalam menunjang karir di masa depan dan diharapkan mampu memberikan wawasan, serta pengetahuan kepada para peserta pelatihan mengenai pentingnya komunikasi public speaking untuk menunjang dalam memasuki dunia kerja dengan baik, selain itu juga memberikan pandangan atau mengedukasi mengenai cara berkomunikasi yang baik dalam dunia kerja. Seminar ini dilaksanakan menggunakan metode presentasi dan pemaparan materi secara offline di aula utama SMK BNI dengan menargetkan kalangan pelajar sebagai pesertanya. Diharapkan dengan adanya pelatihan ini, pelajar menjadi lebih peduli dengan kemampuan dalam berkomunikasi dan mampu menerapkan cara berkomunikasi yang baik di kehidupan sehari hari maupun pada saat memasuki dunia kerja, setelah adanya pelatihan ini feedback yang didapatkan cukup positif dan menarik, dan banyak yang bilang bahwa pelatihan ini sangat bermanfaat bagi mereka yang ingin memasuki dunia kerja