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Fausania Hibatullah
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Evaluasi Emiten Indeks MNC 36 dengan Klasterisasi Rasio Keuangan dan Peramalan Time Series: Studi pada Saham PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk Azzam Pahlawan Ramadhan; Oktaviana Nur Rohmatulillah; Faniya Mahesty Septiadi; Syefa Ilmi Beandita Putri; Aditya Adinata; Trian Servica; Alyaa Nidya Shadrina Anwar; Siti Nabila; Fausania Hibatullah; Bambang Hadi Santoso
Bulletin of Community Engagement Vol. 4 No. 3 (2024): Bulletin of Community Engagement
Publisher : CV. Creative Tugu Pena

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.51278/bce.v4i3.1605

Abstract

Stocks are a popular investment instrument among the public due to their high return potential. To aid investors in selecting suitable stocks, various stock indices serve as benchmarks to assess stock performance. One notable index for its solid performance is the MNC 36 index, which comprises 36 selected stocks on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). This study builds upon prior research by focusing on fundamental and technical analyses of companies in the MNC 36 index. Fundamental analysis calculates financial ratios including the current ratio, quick ratio, cash ratio, ROA, and ROE, while technical analysis uses time series methods such as moving average, exponential smoothing, and ECM to identify the best forecasting model. The analysis process begins with assessing risk and return, followed by clustering companies through random sampling. From the three clusters formed, one with the best financial ratios is selected, with the top-performing company in this cluster undergoing further analysis. Fundamental analysis results indicate minimal variation in ROA and ROE ratios among MNC 36 companies, with ICBP identified as the top stock in the selected cluster. Technical analysis, using single exponential smoothing with an alpha of 0.7, is the most accurate for forecasting ICBP’s stock price, yielding the lowest MAPE, MAD, and MSD values. Additionally, ECM analysis reveals both short-term and long-term relationships between ICBP’s stock price and external variables such as the dollar index, trade balance, and U.S. wheat prices, supported by IIDN tests meeting criteria for normality, identity, and independence.    
Analisis Teknikal dan Fundamental Saham Pada Indeks Sharia Growth dengan Metode Peramalan Deterministik dan Error Correction Model (ECM) Nurfajriyani; Elsa Amelia Nur Arimba; Nisrina Aulia Salsabila; Ratna Maulidah Wulandari; Muhammad Hasan Alwi Abu Sifa; Naswa Sahira; Muhammad Akmal Hafiz Abidin; Bintang Amirul Mukminin; Fausania Hibatullah; Bambang Hadi Santoso Dwidjosumarno
Bulletin of Community Engagement Vol. 4 No. 3 (2024): Bulletin of Community Engagement
Publisher : CV. Creative Tugu Pena

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.51278/bce.v4i3.1683

Abstract

Stock investment is a form of long-term capital allocation aimed at generating future returns while supporting economic growth through funding innovation and production capacity. This study focuses on issuers listed in the Sharia Growth Index, analyzed using a comprehensive approach that includes financial ratio calculations to evaluate fundamental performance, clustering to group stocks based on specific characteristics, and risk-return analysis to assess investment potential and risks. The analysis identified PT Adaro Energy Indonesia Tbk (ADRO) as the selected issuer due to its high returns and strategic role in the mining sector. Subsequently, forecasting methods, including the Error Correction Model (ECM) and Winter’s model, were applied to predict ADRO's stock price movements. The findings indicate that Winter’s model provides the best forecasting results for ADRO, offering high accuracy in predicting future stock price trends. These results provide strategic insights for capital market participants to make more effective and profitable investment decisions. This research serves as a reference for investors in optimizing investment strategies based on integrated technical and fundamental analysis.
Co-Authors Aditya Adinata Alyaa Nidya Shadrina Anwar Azzam Pahlawan Ramadhan Bambang Hadi Santoso Bambang Hadi Santoso Dwidjosumarno Bintang Amirul Mukminin Elsa Amelia Nur Arimba Faniya Mahesty Septiadi Muhammad Akmal Hafiz Abidin Muhammad Hasan Alwi Abu Sifa Naswa Sahira Nisrina Aulia Salsabila Nurfajriyani Oktaviana Nur Rohmatulillah Ratna Maulidah Wulandari Siti Nabila Syefa Ilmi Beandita Putri Trian Servica