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All Journal Infolitika Journal of Data Science Grimsa Journal of Business and Economics Studies
Apriliansyah, Feby
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Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Energy Engineering Environmental Science Social Sciences

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Journal : Infolitika Journal of Data Science

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A Statistical Clustering Approach: Mapping Population Indicators Through Probabilistic Analysis in Aceh Province, Indonesia Sasmita, Novi Reandy; Khairul, Moh; Sofyan, Hizir; Kruba, Rumaisa; Mardalena, Selvi; Dahlawy, Arriz; Apriliansyah, Feby; Muliadi, Muliadi; Saputra, Dimas Chaerul Ekty; Noviandy, Teuku Rizky; Watsiq Maula, Ahmad
Infolitika Journal of Data Science Vol. 1 No. 2 (2023): December 2023
Publisher : Heca Sentra Analitika

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.60084/ijds.v1i2.130

Abstract

The clustering, one of statistical analysis, can be used for understanding population patterns and as a basis for more targeted policy making. In this ecological study, we explored the population dynamics across 23 districts/cities in Aceh Province. The study used the Aceh Population Development Profile Year 2022 data, focusing on the total population, in-migrants, out-migrants, fertility, and maternal mortality as variables. The study employed descriptive statistics to ascertain the data distribution, followed by the Shapiro-Wilk test to evaluate normality, which is crucial for selecting the appropriate statistical methods. The Spearman test was used to determine correlations between the total population and the variable as indicators. Probabilistic Fuzzy C-Means (PFCM) method is used for clustering. To optimize clustering, the silhouette coefficient was calculated using the Euclidean Distance and the elbow method, with the results analyzed using R-4.3.2 software. This study's design and methods aim to provide a nuanced understanding of demographic patterns for targeted policy-making and regional development in Aceh, Indonesia. Based on the data normality test results, only fertility (p-value = 0.45), while the other variables are not normally distributed. Spearman test was used, and the results showed that only in-migrants (p-value = 1.78 x 10-6) and out-migrants (p-value = 2.30 x 10-6) correlated to the Aceh Province population. Using the population variable and the two variables associated with it, it was found that 4 is the best optimum number of clusters, where clusters 1, 2, 3, and 4 consist of three districts/city, nine districts/city, four districts/city and seven districts/city respectively.
Optimizing Energy Consumption Prediction Across the IMT-GT Region Through PCA-Based Modeling Farid, Muhammad; Nuzullah, Teuku Muhammad Faiz; Aklya, Zatul; Nazila, Syifa; Ulhaq , Muhammad Zia; Apriliansyah, Feby; Sasmita, Novi Reandy
Infolitika Journal of Data Science Vol. 3 No. 1 (2025): May 2025
Publisher : Heca Sentra Analitika

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.60084/ijds.v3i1.286

Abstract

This study aims to improve the accuracy of energy consumption prediction in the Indonesia-Malaysia-Thailand Growth Triangle (IMT-GT) region by addressing multicollinearity among independent variables such as energy production (Mtoe), lignite coal production (million tons), crude oil production (million tons), refined oil production (million tons), natural gas production (billion cubic meters), and electricity production (terawatt-hours). By integrating Principal Component Analysis (PCA) with Random Forest (RF), six correlated variables were reduced into two uncorrelated principal components (PC1 and PC2), explaining 80.77% of the data variance. The PCA-RF hybrid model outperformed the standalone Random Forest (RF) model, with an increase in the coefficient of determination (R2) from 0.976 to 0.993. Additionally, it achieved significant reductions in error metrics, with the mean absolute error (MAE) decreasing from 5.811 to 4.169 and the root mean square error (RMSE) dropping from 9.278 to 4.786. These results demonstrate PCA’s effectiveness in isolating dominant drivers such as energy and lignite coal production while improving model stability. The framework provides policymakers with a reliable tool to forecast energy demand and align economic growth with sustainability in fossil fuel-dependent economies.
Co-Authors Ahmad Watsiq Maula Aklya, Zatul Ayu Puspitasari, Ayu Dahlawy, Arriz Dimas Chaerul Ekty Saputra Fikri, Mumtaz Kemal Hizir Sofyan Idroes, Ghalieb Mutig Khairul, Mhd Khairul, Moh Kruba, Rumaisa Mardalena, Selvi Muhammad Farid Muliadi Nazila, Syifa Nuzullah, Teuku Muhammad Faiz Phonna, Rahmatil Adha Saputra, Fachri Eka Sasmita, Novi Reandy Teuku Rizky Noviandy Ulhaq , Muhammad Zia