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All Journal UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science Journal of University Community Engagement
Faulina
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Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Mathematics Social Sciences

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Vector Error Correction Model to Analyze the Impact of Exchange Rates and Money Supply on Inflation in Indonesia Faulina; Fadhilah Fitri; Nonong Amalita; Admi Salma
UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science Vol. 2 No. 3 (2024): UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science
Publisher : Departemen Statistika Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/ujsds/vol2-iss3/188

Abstract

This study analyzes inflation in Indonesia in relation to the influence of exchange rates and the money supply (M2), which pose challenges in controlling inflation amidst rapid economic growth. Data from the Ministry of Trade of the Republic of Indonesia (Kemendag) were used to investigate the relationship between exchange rates and the money supply (M2) on inflation using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results indicate that in the short term, inflation tends to decrease towards stability, with a strong exchange rate capable of reducing inflation, while an increase in the money supply slightly raises inflation. However, in the long term, inflation demonstrates a strong self-correction mechanism, with the influence of exchange rates and the money supply becoming limited. This model proves effective in forecasting inflation for the period from March to August 2024, with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 19.59%.
Pemetaan Problematika Pendidikan di Wilayah Terpencil Paramasan melalui Pendekatan Participatory Action Research (PAR) Faulina; Firdaus, Fery; Ulfiana, Fina; Akbari, Jumiatul; Al-Azmi, Muhammad Akmal Maula; Faqih, Rijalul
Journal of University Community Engagement Vol. 1 No. 2 (2026): June
Publisher : Lembaga Penelitian dan Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15642/juce.v1i2.72

Abstract

This study examines the educational conditions in Paramasan, a remote area where unequal access to quality education remains a significant challenge. The main problems identified include inadequate school infrastructure, such as damaged classrooms, poor sanitation, and limited supporting facilities, as well as a shortage of teaching staff, with only four teachers serving all grade levels. These conditions have reduced the effectiveness of the learning process and negatively affected students' motivation and academic achievement. The study employed a Participatory Action Research (PAR) approach by actively involving principals, teachers, students, and community leaders in identifying problems and formulating solutions. The findings highlight the urgent need for collaborative interventions, including improving school facilities, increasing the number of teachers, enhancing teacher competencies, and strengthening community participation. These measures are expected to promote educational equity, improve learning quality, and support sustainable educational development in Paramasan.
Co-Authors Akbari, Jumiatul Al-Azmi, Muhammad Akmal Maula Fadhilah Fitri Faqih, Rijalul Firdaus, Fery Nonong Amalita Salma, Admi Ulfiana, Fina