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All Journal INCODING: Journal of Informatics and Computer Science Engineering Mars: Jurnal Teknik Mesin, Industri, Elektro dan Ilmu Komputer
M. Revano Ananda Lubis
Universitas Negeri Medan
Computer Science & IT

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Prediksi Jumlah Mahasiswa Baru FMIPA UNIMED Dengan Menggunakan Teknik Simulasi Monte Carlo Khairul Abdi; M. Revano Ananda Lubis
Mars: Jurnal Teknik Mesin, Industri, Elektro Dan Ilmu Komputer Vol. 2 No. 3 (2024): Juni: Mars: Jurnal Teknik Mesin, Industri, Elektro Dan Ilmu Komputer
Publisher : Asosiasi Riset Teknik Elektro dan Informatika Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.61132/mars.v2i3.127

Abstract

Universities' development hinges significantly on student admissions, necessitating accurate predictions for effective planning. This study applies the Monte Carlo simulation method to forecast new student arrivals at the Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences (FMIPA) at Universitas Negeri Medan (UNIMED). Utilizing data from 2021 to 2023 sourced from the PDDikti website, the research employs PHP programming for implementation. The Monte Carlo algorithm's numerical prowess ensures precise statistical data simulation, comprising data collection, probabilistic distribution computations, cumulative distribution determinations, random number generation, and simulation analyses. Simulation results for 2022, 2023, and 2024 exhibit consistent trends, projecting an average of 860 to 930 new students per program. This methodology surpasses manual estimations, offering robust insights for university resource allocation and strategic management. Despite its effectiveness, study limitations, such as model assumptions, warrant continuous validation with actual data. This research advances predictive modeling in higher education, providing a foundation for future enhancements and comprehensive prediction integrations.
Prediksi Penjualan Produk Makanan dan Minuman Ringan pada PT. Sinar Niaga Sejahtera Menggunakan Metode Holt-Winters Berbasis Website M. Revano Ananda Lubis; Insan Taufik; Said Iskandar Al Idrus; Arnita Arnita; Hermawan Syahputra
INCODING: Journal of Informatics and Computer Science Engineering Vol 5, No 2 (2025): INCODING OKTOBER
Publisher : Mahesa Research Institute

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34007/incoding.v5i2.1024

Abstract

PT. Sinar Niaga Sejahtera is a food and beverage distribution company that still relies on conventional methods to determine stock levels, often facing inventory management challenges due to fluctuations in market demand. This study aims to predict sales of the 15 best-selling products at the Tebing Tinggi branch using the Holt-Winters method, based on a website that provides historical sales data from January 2021 to December 2024. The research stages include problem identification, data collection, application of the Holt-Winters method, model evaluation using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and implementation of a website-based system. The results of the study on one product, Garuda Atom Original, show optimal parameters of α = 0.1, β = 0, and γ = 0.8 with an MAPE value of 5,703115%, which is classified as very good. The implementation of a website-based sales prediction system makes it easier for administrators to manage product data, record sales data, and obtain prediction results in the form of informative graphs and tables, thereby helping the company reduce the risk of overstocking or understocking and supporting more effective data-driven decision-making.
Co-Authors Arnita Arnita Hermawan Syahputra Insan Taufik Khairul Abdi Said . Iskandar