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All Journal Asian Journal of Science, Technology, Engineering, and Art ALSYSTECH Journal of Education Technology Mikailalsys Journal of Mathematics and Statistics
Michael, Ibrahim
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Arts Computer Science & IT Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Engineering Materials Science & Nanotechnology Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Social Sciences

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Comparative Study on Forecast Performance from Decomposition, Winter’s and Sarima Models Stephen, Mathew; Ogunmola, Adeniyi; Akobi, Clement Ogbeche; Michael, Ibrahim
Asian Journal of Science, Technology, Engineering, and Art Vol 2 No 6 (2024): Asian Journal of Science, Technology, Engineering, and Art
Publisher : Darul Yasin Al Sys

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58578/ajstea.v2i6.4040

Abstract

This study investigates the forecasting accuracy of three univariate time series models—Decomposition, Winter’s method, and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) to predict the Agricultural GDP of Nigeria. Quarterly data on Nigeria's Agricultural GDP from 2010 to the first quarter of 2023, obtained from the National Bureau of Statistics, were analyzed. The study applied Box-Jenkins SARIMA modeling, time series decomposition, and Winter’s method to compare their forecasting accuracy using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) as the selection criterion. The results revealed that the SARIMA (0, 0, 2)(2, 1, 0) model outperformed the other methods, with the lowest RMSE, indicating its superior accuracy in forecasting Agricultural GDP. Winter’s method and the Decomposition method. The forecast from the SARIMA model indicated a positive trend in Nigeria’s Agricultural GDP over the study period, reinforcing the sector’s critical role in economic growth.
Inference on Cooperative Learning Strategy and Academic Achievement of Physics Students in Girei LGA, Adamawa State Idi, Danjuma; Stephen, Mathew; Michael, Ibrahim
ALSYSTECH Journal of Education Technology Vol 2 No 3 (2024): ALSYSTECH Journal of Education Technology
Publisher : Lembaga Yasin AlSys

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58578/alsystech.v2i3.3766

Abstract

This study examined the effectiveness of cooperative learning strategy on secondary school students' academic achievement in physics. Guided by two research questions and three hypotheses, the study employed a quasi-experimental design and was conducted with a sample of 60 Senior Secondary School year two (SS2) physics students from Government Senior Secondary School Girei, Adamawa State. The Physics Achievement Test (PAT) was used to collect data, which were then analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics. The results showed a significant mean score difference of 13.78333 (p < 0.001) favoring the cooperative learning group over the conventional group. Gender differences were significant in the conventional group (t-statistic = -20.696, p < 0.001), with males scoring higher, but not in the cooperative group (t-statistic = -35.658, p = 0.425). Thus, cooperative learning appears to reduce the gender gap in physics achievement. It is recommended that workshops be held to train teachers on effective cooperative learning strategies.
A Study on Alzhemier Disease in Takum, Taraba State, Nigeria: An ARIMA Model Approach Akobi, Clement; Idi, Danjuma; Michael, Ibrahim; Stephen, Mathew
Mikailalsys Journal of Mathematics and Statistics Vol 3 No 1 (2025): Mikailalsys Journal of Mathematics and Statistics
Publisher : Darul Yasin Al Sys

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58578/mjms.v3i1.4113

Abstract

Alzheimer’s disease, a progressive neurodegenerative disorder, represents a significant and growing public health burden, particularly as life expectancy increases worldwide. In sub-Saharan Africa, including Nigeria, the disease's prevalence is rising due to aging populations and urbanized lifestyles that elevate risk factors for cognitive decline. This study investigates the trends and projected incidence of Alzheimer’s disease in Takum, Taraba State, Nigeria. The research utilizes patient records from General Hospital Takum, spanning from 2012 to 2021. Following diagnostic tests and data transformations, the ARIMA(1,2,0) model was selected as the best fit for predicting future case counts. The findings reveal a steady increase in Alzheimer’s cases, consistent with global patterns, highlighting the need for proactive measures in healthcare planning. The study thus recommends the need for increased public awareness, investment in diagnostic infrastructure, and support systems for caregivers.
Regression Analysis on the Impact of Agriculture, Industry and Service Sector on Economic Growth in Nigeria Michael, Ibrahim; Akobi, Clement; Stephen, Mathew
Asian Journal of Science, Technology, Engineering, and Art Vol 2 No 5 (2024): Asian Journal of Science, Technology, Engineering, and Art
Publisher : Darul Yasin Al Sys

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58578/ajstea.v2i5.3772

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of agriculture, industry, and the service sector on Nigeria's economic growth from 1990 to 2022, using data obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin. Employing an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression model, the research explores the contributions of these key sectors to Nigeria's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The findings reveal that the industrial sector has a significant positive effect on GDP, emphasizing its crucial role in driving economic growth. The agricultural sector also contributes positively, though its impact is relatively modest, highlighting the need for modernization and investment to enhance productivity. Surprisingly, the service sector shows a statistically significant negative impact on GDP, contrary to its traditionally recognized role in economic expansion. This anomaly suggests underlying structural issues within the sector that require further investigation. The study's model explains approximately 59.65% of the variation in GDP, with no significant evidence of autocorrelation, heteroskedasticity, or multicollinearity affecting the results. Based on these findings, the study recommends targeted policy interventions to improve agricultural productivity, strengthen industrialization efforts, and reform the service sector to foster balanced and sustainable economic growth in Nigeria.
Co-Authors Akobi, Clement Akobi, Clement Ogbeche Idi, Danjuma Ogunmola, Adeniyi Stephen, Mathew