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All Journal Journal of Multidisciplinary Science: MIKAILALSYS Asian Journal of Science, Technology, Engineering, and Art Mikailalsys Journal of Advanced Engineering International Mikailalsys Journal of Mathematics and Statistics
Akobi, Clement
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Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Arts Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Computer Science & IT Electrical & Electronics Engineering Engineering Environmental Science Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Social Sciences Other

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 1 
Application of ARIMA Methods on Unemployment and Inflation Rates in Nigeria Akobi, Clement; Ogunmola, Adeniyi
Asian Journal of Science, Technology, Engineering, and Art Vol 2 No 6 (2024): Asian Journal of Science, Technology, Engineering, and Art
Publisher : Darul Yasin Al Sys

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58578/ajstea.v2i6.4087

Abstract

In Nigeria, Unemployment and inflation rate are some of the problems bedeviling the economy. The inability of Job seekers to secure gainful employment tends to create disaffection among these people and cause some of them especially the youth, to resort to social vices. In the motivation to experience low unemployment rate and inflation rate which are economic indicators in Nigeria, deriving appropriate ARIMA model to give insight into future occurrence of these indicators for intervention calls for the application of ARIMA model. This study seek to fit ARIMA model to unemployment rate and inflation rate and forecast future values for both unemployment rate and inflation rate. Utilizing secondary data sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) from 1991 to 2020. The findings reveal that, for each of the two series, to obtain the appropriate ARIMA model that fits the data, ten closely suitable ARIMA models were identified. Using the least values of AIC, AICc and BIC as selection criteria, ARIMA (0, 1, 1) was found to be the best fitted model for each of the two series. Subsequent diagnostic checks confirm the adequacy of the fitted models, with residual analyses indicating no significant autocorrelation or heteroscedasticity. The forecasted values for the unemployment rate series and inflation rate series maintain a constant point forecast. This implies that unemployment rate and inflation rate in Nigeria does not reveal a noticeable increase nor decrease but will be constant in Nigeria. Due to the unchanging forecasted value which appears not to be decreasing, there is need for interventions that will lead to the visible reduction of present unemployment rate and inflation rate in Nigeria.
A Statistical Evaluation of the Occurence of Meningitis in Takum, Taraba State, Nigeria Idi, Danjuma; Akobi, Clement; Stephen, Mathew; Bamigbala, Olateju Alao
Asian Journal of Science, Technology, Engineering, and Art Vol 2 No 6 (2024): Asian Journal of Science, Technology, Engineering, and Art
Publisher : Darul Yasin Al Sys

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58578/ajstea.v2i6.4112

Abstract

Meningitis remains a critical public health issue in Nigeria, particularly within the dry season when environmental factors such as low humidity and dust elevate transmission risks. Using historical incidence data from 2012 to 2021, this study utilizes the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model estimate and predict the occurrence of meningitis occurrences. Findings frm the study revealed that the ARIMA(1,1,0) model emerged as the optimal fit, capturing the seasonal patterns and temporal trends in meningitis cases. This study recommends the integration of ARIMA-based forecasting into Nigeria’s public health strategies to strengthen early warning systems, optimize resource deployment, and enable more proactive responses during high-risk periods.
A Study on Alzhemier Disease in Takum, Taraba State, Nigeria: An ARIMA Model Approach Akobi, Clement; Idi, Danjuma; Michael, Ibrahim; Stephen, Mathew
Mikailalsys Journal of Mathematics and Statistics Vol 3 No 1 (2025): Mikailalsys Journal of Mathematics and Statistics
Publisher : Darul Yasin Al Sys

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58578/mjms.v3i1.4113

Abstract

Alzheimer’s disease, a progressive neurodegenerative disorder, represents a significant and growing public health burden, particularly as life expectancy increases worldwide. In sub-Saharan Africa, including Nigeria, the disease's prevalence is rising due to aging populations and urbanized lifestyles that elevate risk factors for cognitive decline. This study investigates the trends and projected incidence of Alzheimer’s disease in Takum, Taraba State, Nigeria. The research utilizes patient records from General Hospital Takum, spanning from 2012 to 2021. Following diagnostic tests and data transformations, the ARIMA(1,2,0) model was selected as the best fit for predicting future case counts. The findings reveal a steady increase in Alzheimer’s cases, consistent with global patterns, highlighting the need for proactive measures in healthcare planning. The study thus recommends the need for increased public awareness, investment in diagnostic infrastructure, and support systems for caregivers.
Regression Analysis on the Impact of Agriculture, Industry and Service Sector on Economic Growth in Nigeria Michael, Ibrahim; Akobi, Clement; Stephen, Mathew
Asian Journal of Science, Technology, Engineering, and Art Vol 2 No 5 (2024): Asian Journal of Science, Technology, Engineering, and Art
Publisher : Darul Yasin Al Sys

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58578/ajstea.v2i5.3772

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of agriculture, industry, and the service sector on Nigeria's economic growth from 1990 to 2022, using data obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin. Employing an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression model, the research explores the contributions of these key sectors to Nigeria's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The findings reveal that the industrial sector has a significant positive effect on GDP, emphasizing its crucial role in driving economic growth. The agricultural sector also contributes positively, though its impact is relatively modest, highlighting the need for modernization and investment to enhance productivity. Surprisingly, the service sector shows a statistically significant negative impact on GDP, contrary to its traditionally recognized role in economic expansion. This anomaly suggests underlying structural issues within the sector that require further investigation. The study's model explains approximately 59.65% of the variation in GDP, with no significant evidence of autocorrelation, heteroskedasticity, or multicollinearity affecting the results. Based on these findings, the study recommends targeted policy interventions to improve agricultural productivity, strengthen industrialization efforts, and reform the service sector to foster balanced and sustainable economic growth in Nigeria.
Empirical Evaluation of the Impact of Development Expenditure on Poverty Alleviation in Nigeria Wilson, Clement; Akobi, Clement; Babale, Winner Lara
Journal of Multidisciplinary Science: MIKAILALSYS Vol 3 No 2 (2025): Journal of Multidisciplinary Science: MIKAILALSYS
Publisher : Darul Yasin Al Sys

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58578/mikailalsys.v3i2.6780

Abstract

This study investigates the contribution of development financing to poverty alleviation in Nigeria between 1990 and 2023, with a focus on the impact of education and health funding. Time series data were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin. The Augmented Dickey–Fuller unit root test indicated that education and health expenditures were stationary at first difference (I(1)), while poverty reduction was stationary at second difference (I(2)). Johansen cointegration results confirmed a long-run relationship among the variables. An Error Correction Model (ECM) was applied to assess the effects of development funding, revealing that government expenditure on education significantly reduces poverty in the long run (p = 0.0225 < 0.05), whereas health expenditure showed no significant short-run impact (p = 0.3210 > 0.05). The results suggest that a 1% increase in education expenditure leads to a 0.0731% reduction in poverty in the short run. The study concludes that development funding can substantially alleviate poverty when resources are efficiently managed and productively invested. It recommends effective implementation strategies and structural reforms in public spending to achieve sustainable poverty reduction in Nigeria.
Effect of Money Supply on Stock Market Development in Nigeria (1985–2023) Stephen, Mathew; Akobi, Clement; Idi, Danjuma; Yusuf, Shadrach
Mikailalsys Journal of Mathematics and Statistics Vol 3 No 2 (2025): Mikailalsys Journal of Mathematics and Statistics
Publisher : Darul Yasin Al Sys

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58578/mjms.v3i2.5883

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of money supply on stock market development in Nigeria over the period 1985 to 2023, with a focus on assessing the differential effects of monetary aggregates and policy rate dynamics. Using annual time-series data obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin, the analysis models stock market development proxied by total annual market capitalization as a function of narrow money supply (M1), broad money supply (M2), and the monetary policy rate (MPR). Multiple regression analysis was employed to test the formulated hypotheses, with standard diagnostic tests confirming the validity of the model, including the absence of multicollinearity and the normal distribution of residuals. Results reveal a statistically significant negative relationship between the monetary policy rate and stock market development (p < 0.05), suggesting that higher interest rates hinder capital market performance. In contrast, neither M1 nor M2 exhibited statistically significant effects (p > 0.05), indicating a limited influence of money supply aggregates on stock market growth within the observed period. These findings imply that interest rate adjustments remain a critical monetary policy tool in shaping investor behavior and capital market performance. The study recommends that policymakers prioritize interest rate management within a coherent monetary policy framework to foster a conducive environment for capital market development and broader economic growth.
The Impact of Religion and Ideology on Country’s Economic Growth: A Case Study of Wukari Local Government Area, Taraba State Wilson, Clement; N, Okeke E.; Akobi, Clement
Mikailalsys Journal of Mathematics and Statistics Vol 3 No 3 (2025): Mikailalsys Journal of Mathematics and Statistics
Publisher : Darul Yasin Al Sys

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58578/mjms.v3i3.6809

Abstract

This study examines the influence of religion and ideology on economic growth in Wukari Local Government Area of Taraba State, Nigeria. Recognizing that religious beliefs and ideological values shape social cohesion, governance, and individual behavior, the research investigates how these factors contribute to local economic dynamics. A multi-stage cluster sampling technique was used to select ninety respondents across nine villages, representing Christianity, Islam, and African Traditional Religion. Data were collected through structured questionnaires and analyzed using descriptive statistics and multinomial logistic regression. The findings reveal that religious teachings and ideological orientations significantly shape economic behavior and perceptions of development. Specifically, religion promotes ethical values, work discipline, and social capital, generating both direct and indirect effects on economic growth. The regression model confirmed a statistically significant relationship between religious ideology and perceived economic advancement. However, the influence of religion can either facilitate or hinder economic progress, depending on how it is interpreted and applied. The study concludes that integrating religious values into economic planning in a balanced way can strengthen development outcomes. It recommends that policymakers and religious leaders foster inclusive, growth-oriented interpretations of faith and ideology to enhance sustainable economic development in the region.
Forecasting Nigeria Inflation Rate Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Model Ikrimat, Aliyu; Akobi, Clement; Peter, Pantuvo Tsoke; Gatta, Abdulganiy Abdullahi
Mikailalsys Journal of Advanced Engineering International Vol 2 No 2 (2025): Mikailalsys Journal of Advanced Engineering International
Publisher : Darul Yasin Al Sys

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58578/mjaei.v2i2.5649

Abstract

This study focuses on forecasting Nigeria's inflation rate using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The research utilizes monthly inflation data from January 2010 to December 2024, obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). The primary objective is to model and forecast inflation trends in Nigeria, which has been experiencing significant inflationary pressures in recent years. The study employs the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) tests to check for stationarity, revealing that the inflation series becomes stationary after a second differencing (I (2)). The ARIMA (2,2,1) model is identified as the best fit based on the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), providing a balance between model complexity and predictive accuracy. The model reveals strong autoregressive and moving average dynamics, with significant coefficients for AR (1), AR (2), and MA (1) terms. The forecasted inflation rates for 2025 indicate a steady upward trend, with inflation expected to rise from 35.26% in January to 38.93% by December 2025. The findings highlight the persistent inflationary pressures in Nigeria, driven by factors such as currency depreciation, rising food prices, and energy costs. The study concludes that the ARIMA (2,2,1) model is effective for forecasting Nigeria's inflation rate and recommends that policymakers implement measures to stabilize the economy, including tighter monetary policies, fiscal discipline, and investments in domestic production to mitigate inflationary pressures. Continuous monitoring and timely adjustments to economic policies are also emphasized to address the ongoing challenges posed by inflation. Additionally, the study recommends diversifying the economy to reduce dependence on oil exports, improving agricultural productivity to curb food price volatility, and enhancing data collection methods for more accurate inflation forecasting.
Co-Authors Babale, Winner Lara BAMIGBALA, Olateju Alao Gatta, Abdulganiy Abdullahi Idi, Danjuma Ikrimat, Aliyu Michael, Ibrahim N, Okeke E. Ogunmola, Adeniyi Peter, Pantuvo Tsoke Stephen, Mathew Wilson, Clement Yusuf, Shadrach