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Journal : Mikailalsys Journal of Mathematics and Statistics

A Study on Alzhemier Disease in Takum, Taraba State, Nigeria: An ARIMA Model Approach Akobi, Clement; Idi, Danjuma; Michael, Ibrahim; Stephen, Mathew
Mikailalsys Journal of Mathematics and Statistics Vol 3 No 1 (2025): Mikailalsys Journal of Mathematics and Statistics
Publisher : Darul Yasin Al Sys

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58578/mjms.v3i1.4113

Abstract

Alzheimer’s disease, a progressive neurodegenerative disorder, represents a significant and growing public health burden, particularly as life expectancy increases worldwide. In sub-Saharan Africa, including Nigeria, the disease's prevalence is rising due to aging populations and urbanized lifestyles that elevate risk factors for cognitive decline. This study investigates the trends and projected incidence of Alzheimer’s disease in Takum, Taraba State, Nigeria. The research utilizes patient records from General Hospital Takum, spanning from 2012 to 2021. Following diagnostic tests and data transformations, the ARIMA(1,2,0) model was selected as the best fit for predicting future case counts. The findings reveal a steady increase in Alzheimer’s cases, consistent with global patterns, highlighting the need for proactive measures in healthcare planning. The study thus recommends the need for increased public awareness, investment in diagnostic infrastructure, and support systems for caregivers.