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All Journal Jurnal Agribisnis Jurnal Riset Rumpun Ilmu Tanaman Pemberdayaan Masyarakat: Jurnal Aksi Sosial Jurnal Pertanian Agros
Nugra Irianta Denashurya
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Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Humanities Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Engineering

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PENGEMBANGAN MODEL SARIMA UNTUK MERAMALKAN PRODUKSI TANAMAN OBAT DI INDONESIA Nugra Irianta Denashurya
JURNAL AGRIBISNIS Vol. 13 No. 2 (2024): Jurnal Agribisnis Volume 13 No 2 Tahun 2024
Publisher : Program Studi Agribisnis, Fakultas Pertanian

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32520/agribisnis.v13i2.3601

Abstract

Tanaman obat memiliki peran penting dalam budaya Indonesia dan digunakan secara luas dalam bidang kesehatan dan kecantikan. Produksi tanaman obat sangat krusial bagi industri fitofarmaka, yang merupakan industri penting bagi kesehatan masyarakat. Oleh karena itu, meramalkan produksi tanaman obat di masa depan menjadi sangat penting untuk memastikan ketersediaan bahan baku yang memadai bagi industri fitofarmaka. Salah satu metode peramalan yang sering digunakan adalah Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA), yang digunakan untuk memprediksi data berkala atau data yang memiliki pola musiman. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengembangkan model SARIMA untuk meramalkan produksi kencur sebagai salah satu jenis tanaman obat di Indonesia dan menganalisis dampaknya pada industri fitofarmaka. Data produksi kencur dan dua jenis tanaman obat lainnya diambil dari Badan Pusat Statistik (2024) dan sumber lainnya, untuk setiap bulan dari Januari 2015 sampai Desember 2024. Software statistik Python dengan menggunakan paket "statsmodels" digunakan untuk mengolah data dan membuat ramalan produksi kencur di masa depan. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa model SARIMA yang dikembangkan dapat digunakan untuk meramalkan produksi tanaman obat di masa depan dengan akurasi yang baik. Medicinal plants play an important role in Indonesian culture and are widely used in health and beauty fields. The production of medicinal plants is crucial for the phytopharmaceutical industry, which is an important industry for public health. Therefore, forecasting medicinal plant production in the future becomes very important to ensure adequate raw materials for the phytopharmaceutical industry. One of the forecasting methods commonly used is Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA), which is used to predict periodic or seasonally patterned data. This study aims to develop a SARIMA model to forecast the production of "kencur" as one of the medicinal plants in Indonesia and analyze its impact on the phytopharmaceutical industry. Data on "kencur" production and two other types of medicinal plants were taken from the Central Bureau of Statistics (2024) and other sources, for every month from January 2015 to December 2024. Python statistical software using the "statsmodels" package was used to process data and create forecasts of future "kencur" production. The results of the study showed that the developed SARIMA model can be used to forecast medicinal plant production in the future with good accuracy.
Pelatihan dan Pendampingan Penyusunan Rencana Bisnis Model Canvas pada TKML di Kabupaten Mempawah Singgih Tiwut Atmojo; Irba’ Muhlas Sambodo; Nugra Irianta Denashurya; Gunadi Gunadi; Eko Wahyu Junaidi
Pemberdayaan Masyarakat : Jurnal Aksi Sosial Vol. 2 No. 2 (2025): Juni : Pemberdayaan Masyarakat : Jurnal Aksi Sosial
Publisher : Lembaga Pengembangan Kinerja Dosen

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.62383/aksisosial.v2i2.1419

Abstract

This PKM is carried out to provide assistance for TKML programs from KEMENAKER RI in Mempawah Regency to develop business using the Business Model Canvas (BMC) method approach. Business mapping is carried out by implementing nine BMC steps. The training process is carried out online and offline as well as direct visits to each TKM. Activities are carried out by discussing BMC by academics who are carrying out PKM, and then presenting the results of the discussion in the forum. The results of this training process are that participants understand their business processes, can map the businesses they run using the BMC method and can gradually increase sales and profits from the businesses they run. In the long term, it is hoped that TKM can be implemented sustainably in order to develop their businesses and also create new SMEs/Businesses that are able to compete in the business world in the future.
Analisis Kelayakan Usaha Tempe Kedelai GMO pada UMKM Annisa di Kubu Raya Irba’ Muhlas Sambodo; Nugra Irianta Denashurya; Singgih Tiwut Atmojo
Jurnal Riset Rumpun Ilmu Tanaman Vol. 4 No. 1 (2025): April : Jurnal Riset Rumpun Ilmu Tanaman
Publisher : Pusat riset dan Inovasi Nasional

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55606/jurrit.v4i1.5649

Abstract

This study aims to evaluate the financial feasibility of tempeh production using genetically modified soybeans (Genetically Modified Organisms/GMO) at the Annisa Tempe Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprise (MSME) in Kubu Raya Regency. GMO soybeans are the preferred choice for the business owner due to their stable availability and lower price compared to local soybeans. This research employs a case study approach and utilizes investment feasibility analysis methods, including Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and Net Benefit-Cost Ratio (Net B/C). The results show that the business yields an NPV of IDR 779,241,805, an IRR of 20.82%, and a Net B/C of 78.92. These indicators demonstrate that the GMO-based tempeh business at Annisa Tempe MSME is highly feasible from a financial perspective. The study also identifies key challenges such as competition in traditional markets and highlights opportunities through direct distribution and stable raw material supply. These findings are expected to serve as a reference for MSME actors, academics, and policymakers in developing sustainable GMO-based local food businesses.
MODEL BISNIS INKLUSIF UNTUK PEMBERDAYAAN PETANI KECIL DI KABUPATEN SAMBAS Nugra Irianta Denashurya; Singgih Tiwut Atmojo; Irba Muhlas Sambodo
Jurnal Pertanian Agros Vol 27 No 2 (2025): EDISI APRIL
Publisher : Fakultas Pertanian Universitas Janabadra

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37159/jpa.v27i2.81

Abstract

Sambas Regency in West Kalimantan has significant agribusiness potential, yet smallholder farmers in the region continue to face various challenges such as limited access to markets, capital, and technology. This study aims to identify inclusive business models that have been implemented, evaluate their impact on the economic and social welfare of smallholder farmers, and examine the barriers faced in their implementation. A mixed-method approach was employed, collecting data through questionnaires, in-depth interviews, and field observations involving smallholder farmers, community leaders, and agribusiness actors. The findings show that inclusive business models involving partnerships between smallholder farmers and agribusiness companies have provided substantial benefits, including increased income, expanded market access, and capacity building through training and extension services. However, challenges such as bureaucratic complexity, inadequate infrastructure, and limited access to financing remain significant obstacles. The study concludes that inclusive business models hold great potential for empowering smallholder farmers, provided there is strong support from the government, the private sector, and financial institutions. Policy recommendations are proposed to strengthen the effectiveness of these models in promoting inclusive economic development in rural areas.
Co-Authors Atmojo, Singgih Tiwut Eko Wahyu Junaidi Gunadi Gunadi Irba’ Muhlas Sambodo