<![CDATA[Transisi energi pada sistem kelistrikan isolated grid di wilayah kepulauan menghadapi tantangan dalam menjaga keseimbangan antara keandalan pasokan listrik dan efisiensi biaya operasi. Nusa Penida sebagai sistem kelistrikan hybrid yang mengintegrasikan Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Diesel (PLTD), Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Surya (PLTS), dan Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) menjadi contoh penting dalam implementasi transisi energi pada wilayah terpencil. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis hubungan kausal antara kinerja PLTD, kinerja PLTS, harga bahan bakar, dan kondisi sistem ketenagalistrikan terhadap konsumsi bahan bakar, produksi energi listrik, dan biaya operasi pembangkitan. Penelitian menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif eksplanatori dengan metode Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) berdasarkan data operasional bulanan sistem PLT Hybrid Nusa Penida periode 2021–2025. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa kinerja PLTS berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap System of Electricity (β = 0,852; p < 0,001) dan Electricity Generation (β = 0,409; p < 0,001), serta berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap Fuel Consumption (β = -0,635; p < 0,001). Selain itu, Fuel Price of Generation berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap Operating Cost of Generation (β = 0,316; p = 0,003), sedangkan Electricity Generation berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap Operating Cost of Generation (β = -0,757; p = 0,027). Temuan ini menunjukkan bahwa peningkatan kontribusi energi terbarukan tidak hanya mampu mengurangi konsumsi bahan bakar diesel, tetapi juga berpotensi menurunkan biaya operasi pembangkitan melalui optimalisasi bauran energi. Penelitian ini memberikan kontribusi empiris berupa model terintegrasi yang menghubungkan variabel teknis, ekonomi, dan sistem pada pembangkit hybrid berbasis data operasional nyata dari sistem isolated grid. Hasil penelitian dapat menjadi dasar dalam pengembangan strategi manajemen energi yang lebih adaptif untuk mendukung efisiensi operasi dan transisi energi berkelanjutan di wilayah kepulauan. The energy transition in isolated island power systems faces significant challenges in balancing electricity supply reliability and operational cost efficiency. Nusa Penida, as a hybrid power system integrating Diesel Power Plants (DPP), Solar Photovoltaic Power Plants (SPP), and Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS), represents an important case for implementing energy transition strategies in remote areas. This study aims to analyze the causal relationships among diesel power plant performance, solar power plant performance, fuel prices, and electricity system conditions on fuel consumption, electricity generation, and generation operating costs. A quantitative explanatory approach was employed using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) based on monthly operational data from the Nusa Penida Hybrid Power Plant system covering the period 2021–2025. The results indicate that solar power plant performance has a positive and significant effect on the System of Electricity (β = 0.852; p < 0.001) and Electricity Generation (β = 0.409; p < 0.001), while exerting a negative and significant effect on Fuel Consumption (β = -0.635; p < 0.001). Furthermore, Fuel Price of Generation has a positive and significant effect on Operating Cost of Generation (β = 0.316; p = 0.003), whereas Electricity Generation has a negative and significant effect on Operating Cost of Generation (β = -0.757; p = 0.027). These findings demonstrate that increasing the contribution of renewable energy not only reduces diesel fuel consumption but also has the potential to lower generation operating costs through the optimization of the energy mix. This study contributes empirically by developing an integrated model that links technical, economic, and system variables using real operational data from an isolated grid system. The findings provide a valuable basis for developing more adaptive energy management strategies to support operational efficiency and sustainable energy transition in island-based power systems.]]>
