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All Journal Griya Journal of Mathematics Education and Application AKSIOMA : Jurnal Sains Ekonomi dan Edukasi
Tampubolon, Elza Ully Tiara
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Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Mathematics Social Sciences

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Pemodelan Tingkat Kemiskinan di Provinsi Aceh Menggunakan Distribusi Poisson dan Binomial Negatif Tampubolon, Elza Ully Tiara; Kusuma, Bagus
AKSIOMA : Jurnal Sains Ekonomi dan Edukasi Vol. 2 No. 1 (2025): AKSIOMA : Jurnal Sains, Ekonomi dan Edukasi
Publisher : Lembaga Pendidikan dan Penelitian Manggala Institute

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.62335/8xedj814

Abstract

This study aims to model the poverty rate in Aceh Province using the Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) approach with the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) method. The models used in this study include Poisson and Negative Binomial regression. The data used includes variables of per capita expenditure, population density, average years of schooling, open unemployment rate, and labor force participation. Multicollinearity tests were conducted using Tolerance and Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) values to ensure the absence of multicollinearity problems between predictor variables. The results show that the Negative Binomial model is better than the Poisson model, as indicated by the smaller WAIC value. The average years of schooling variable has a significant negative effect, while the open unemployment rate has a significant positive effect on the poverty rate. Meanwhile, the variables of expenditure per capita, population density, and labor force participation make smaller and partially insignificant contributions in the model. Thus, increasing access to education and reducing unemployment are key factors in poverty alleviation efforts in Aceh Province. The results of this study are expected to serve as a reference for policy makers in formulating effective strategies to reduce poverty.
Analisis Tingkat Kriminalitas di Jawa Tengah dengan Pendekatan Distribusi Poisson dan Binomial Negatif kusuma, Bagus; Tampubolon, Elza Ully Tiara; Alfarisi, Salman
AKSIOMA : Jurnal Sains Ekonomi dan Edukasi Vol. 2 No. 1 (2025): AKSIOMA : Jurnal Sains, Ekonomi dan Edukasi
Publisher : Lembaga Pendidikan dan Penelitian Manggala Institute

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.62335/58brp592

Abstract

This study analyses the influence of factors causing crime in Central Java Province in 2022, with variables including poverty, population density, education, Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), unemployment rate, and food and non-food consumption. Crime in this region is a social issue that needs attention, given the impact it has on both the economy and social community. Criminality data in the form of count data is analysed using Poisson and Negative Binomial regression to overcome the problem of overdispersion, which allows the model to more accurately estimate the relationship between variables. The results showed that the Negative Binomial regression model was better than Poisson regression, based on the AIC (Akaike Information Criteria) value. The variables of poverty and education were found to have a significant influence on crime rates, indicating the importance of social and educational policies in reducing crime rates. Meanwhile, the variables of population density, GRDP, unemployment rate, and food consumption showed no significant effect. These findings provide important insights for the government in formulating policies aimed at reducing crime rates and improving social stability in Central Java Province. This research is expected to be the basis for the development of data-based policies to improve the welfare of the community.
Pemodelan Spasio-Temporal HIV/AIDS dan Hepatitis B & C di Jawa Tengah Menggunakan Model Bayesian Multivariat Tampubolon, Elza Ully Tiara; Kusuma, Bagus
Griya Journal of Mathematics Education and Application Vol. 6 No. 1 (2026): Maret 2026
Publisher : Pendidikan Matematika FKIP Universitas Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29303/griya.v6i1.1018

Abstract

HIV/AIDS serta Hepatitis B dan C merupakan penyakit menular yang hingga saat ini masih menjadi permasalahan serius dalam kesehatan masyarakat, mengingat tingginya beban morbiditas dan mortalitas serta kesamaan jalur penularannya. Di Provinsi Jawa Tengah, jumlah kasus kedua penyakit ini tergolong signifikan dengan pola sebaran yang tidak merata antar kabupaten/kota, sehingga memerlukan pendekatan analisis yang mampu menangkap variasi spasial dan temporal secara simultan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pola risiko HIV/AIDS dan Hepatitis B & C menggunakan Bayesian Multivariate Spatio-Temporal Model dengan pendekatan Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA). Data yang digunakan bersumber dari BPJS Kesehatan periode 2019–2023 yang mencakup 35 kabupaten/kota di Jawa Tengah. Hasil evaluasi model menunjukkan bahwa kombinasi prior spasial pCAR, prior temporal RW1, serta interaksi spasio-temporal Type I memberikan kinerja terbaik, ditunjukkan oleh nilai DIC sebesar 4007,37, WAIC sebesar 3925,16, dan Log Score sebesar 11113,66. Analisis korelasi mengindikasikan adanya hubungan spasial positif yang cukup kuat antara HIV/AIDS dan Hepatitis B & C, yang menunjukkan kecenderungan wilayah berisiko tinggi pada satu penyakit juga berisiko tinggi pada penyakit lainnya. Sebaliknya, korelasi temporal teridentifikasi lemah dan tidak konsisten, mencerminkan perbedaan dinamika waktu kedua penyakit. Pemetaan risiko relatif mengungkap klaster wilayah berisiko tinggi yang berulang pada beberapa kabupaten/kota tertentu. Temuan ini menegaskan efektivitas pendekatan Bayesian multivariat sebagai dasar perumusan kebijakan intervensi kesehatan berbasis wilayah.
Co-Authors Kusuma, Bagus Salman Alfarisi