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All Journal Jurnal Inovasi Ekonomi Syariah dan Akuntansi
Sarah Annisa Noven
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Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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Estimasi Peramalan Volatilitas Return Saham Perusahaan Sektor Energi Pada Indeks Saham Syariah Indonesia (ISSI) Danisya Kayla Putri Mayari; Cupian Cupian; Sarah Annisa Noven
Jurnal Inovasi Ekonomi Syariah dan Akuntansi Vol. 2 No. 1 (2025): Januari : Jurnal Inovasi Ekonomi Syariah dan Akuntansi (JIESA)
Publisher : Asosiasi Riset Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.61132/jiesa.v2i1.826

Abstract

This study aims to determine the forecasting of stock return volatility of energy companies listed on the Indonesian Sharia Stock Index (ISSI) using the ARCH/GARCH method. This study uses purposive sampling method and uses secondary data in the form of daily stock returns from January 2022 to June 2024 on 10 selected stocks. Data processing is done using Stata software. The results showed that of the 10 selected stocks, only 6 stocks, namely BYAN, ADRO, GEMS, PTBA, AKRA, and BSSR, were suitable for analysis using the ARCH/GARCH model. Meanwhile, PGAS, ITMG, PTRO, and HRUM do not show ARCH effect or do not contain heteroscedasticity. Statistical evaluation of volatility prediction shows that the selected models provide good predictions. Among the six stocks analyzed, ADRO, PTBA, and BSSR show high volatility, while BYAN, GEMS, and AKRA show low volatility. Therefore, investors should consider investment risk when evaluating stocks with different levels of volatility.
Co-Authors Cupian Cupian Danisya Kayla Putri Mayari