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All Journal Jurnal Matematika UNAND Bulletin of Applied Mathematics and Mathematics Education
NAFISAH, ZULFATIN
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Computer Science & IT Mathematics

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MODEL SEIR DENGAN PSEUDO-RECOVERY PADA KASUS TUBERKULOSIS DI JAWA BARAT NAFISAH, ZULFATIN; Adi, Yudi Ari
Jurnal Matematika UNAND Vol. 13 No. 3 (2024)
Publisher : Departemen Matematika dan Sains Data FMIPA Universitas Andalas Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.25077/jmua.13.3.170-187.2024

Abstract

Tuberkulosis menjadi salah satu penyakit menular yang sampai saat ini masih sulit ditanggulangi. Di Indonesia, Provinsi Jawa Barat menjadi salah satu provinsi dengan kasus tertinggi yang memiliki tingkat prevalensi 63%. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis model penyebaran penyakit tuberkulosis tipe SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed) dengan mempertimbangkan pengobatan dan adanya pemulihan semu (pseudo recovery). Model ini terdiri dari empat kelas yaitu, rentan, terpapar tetapi belum menularkan penyakit, terinfeksi dan dapat menularkan penyakit, dan sembuh semu. Data yang digunakan adalah data jumlah penderita penyakit tuberkulosis dari Dinas Kesehatan Provinsi Jawa Barat tahun 2011-2022. Fungsi Lyapunov dan prinsip invarian LaSalle digunakan untuk menunjukkan bahwa titik keseimbangan stabil secara global, dan tuberkulosis akan bertahan jika angka reproduksi dasar lebih besar dari satu. Sebaliknya, penyakit akan hilang jika angka reproduksi dasar kurang dari satu. Prosedur bifurkasi menggunakan teori manifold pusat digunakan untuk melakukan studi bifurkasi. Kondisi matematika memastikan terjadinya bifurkasi maju. Terakhir, simulasi numerik dilakukan untuk mendukung temuan teoretis.
Indonesian provincial clustering using Elbow method for the national food security during pandemic Trimanto, Rido; Yustari, Eryka; Nafisah, Zulfatin; Carolina, Nona; Irsalinda, Nursyiva; Setyorini, Arifah Indah
Bulletin of Applied Mathematics and Mathematics Education Vol. 2 No. 2 (2022)
Publisher : Universitas Ahmad Dahlan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12928/bamme.v2i2.6166

Abstract

The Covid-19 pandemic had an impact on the joints of socio-economic life, especially in fulfilling the basic needs. It also caused the declining of global food security, especially in Indonesia. This study aims to develop regional mapping to determine food security priorities and to achieve equal distribution of food security throughout Indonesia. The research method used in this research is quantitative research with the Elbow method. The Elbow method is used to find the optimal cluster size. The data used are from the Food Security Agency of the Indonesian Ministry of Agriculture and Central Statistics Agency in a range of 2020 to 2021. In the process to identify priority areas in Indonesia, it is necessary to have provincial clustering. It is also necessary to minimize food budget allocations that are not well-targeted, causing losses, and not achieving an equal distribution of food security programs. Looking from a more visionary perspective, the success of clustering provides an opportunity for the government to focus more on allocating budget, resources, and time according to the results of the clustering. Based on the results of the provincial clustering, two clusters were obtained, namely provinces with high food security (Cluster 1) and low food security (Cluster 2). Cluster 1 has lower constituent components than Cluster 2.
Co-Authors Carolina, Nona Irsalinda, Nursyiva Setyorini, Arifah Indah Trimanto, Rido Yudi Ari Adi, Yudi Ari Yustari, Eryka