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All Journal Indonesian Physical Review Bulletin of Applied Mathematics and Mathematics Education
Lestari, Tri Anggun
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Education Mathematics Physics

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Identification of cross-equatorial northerly surge (CENS) relationship to very heavy rain events in Jakarta Lestari, Tri Anggun; Athallah, M. Syauqi B.; Haryanto, Yosafat D.
Bulletin of Applied Mathematics and Mathematics Education Vol. 3 No. 1 (2023)
Publisher : Universitas Ahmad Dahlan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12928/bamme.v3i1.7340

Abstract

CENS is a meteorological phenomenon in the form of surface wind flow originating from the South China Sea (SCS), very strongly across the equator. CENS is closely related to the increase in average rainfall in parts of Indonesia. There has been very heavy rainfall on January 18, 2022 in the Jakarta area which resulted in flooding. Therefore, this study focuses on seeing if there is a CENS relationship that is factor in increasing rainfall in the Jakarta area on January 18, 2022. The results showed that the NCS began to form on January 16-17, 2022 with a Siberian High of 1040.6 hPa and the propagation of cold air masses from Asia to the south which was an indicator of CENS. The next day, the CENS phenomenon began to occur, characterized by meridional wind speeds in the 105˚- 115˚BT region of less than -5 m/s. This phenomenon triggers the strengthening of the northeast Asian monsoon flow so that the area south of the equator, including Jakarta, gets a large moisture transport from the SCS. This causes the potential for the formation of high convective clouds to trigger very heavy rain and cause flooding in the Jakarta area on January 18, 2022.
SEA-LEVEL VARIABILITY IN THE JAVA SEA LINKED TO MONSOON FORCING AND CLIMATE TELECONNECTIONS (2009–2024) Nugraheni, Imma Redha; Lestari, Tri Anggun; Kristianto, Aries; Avrionesti, Avrionesti; Rejeki, Hasti Amrih; Wijaya, Yusuf Jati
Indonesian Physical Review Vol. 8 No. 3 (2025)
Publisher : Universitas Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29303/ipr.v8i3.571

Abstract

The Java Sea is a shallow, strait-connected shelf where seasonal monsoon forcing and climate modes can strongly modulate sea level, yet their sectoral expressions remain under-resolved. Altimetric observations from 2009–2024 (DUACS) are analyzed and validated against a network of Indonesian tide gauges and partition the basin into western (W-JS), central (C-JS), and eastern (E-JS) sectors. After detrending, the seasonal cycle is diagnosed via amplitude and phase metrics and quantifies interannual teleconnections using lead–lag cross-correlations (−12 to +12 months) between sea-level anomaly (SLA) and the Dipole Mode Index (DMI) and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), with confidence intervals. DUACS reproduces tide-gauge variability with high skill (median correlation ≈ 0.82; RMSE 5–11 cm; small negative biases), supporting its use as a basin proxy. Seasonally, SLA peaks in DJF, weakens in MAM, reaches a pronounced minimum in JJA, and recovers in SON, with marked zonal heterogeneity: E-JS exhibits the strongest annual range (~18 cm) versus W-/C-JS (~12–13 cm). The seasonal phase is non-synchronous (W-JS maxima in May–June; E-JS in December–January), while C-JS behaves as a transition zone. Interannually, IOD impacts are near-synchronous and negative (lag-0, r ~ −0.41 to −0.47 across sectors), whereas ENSO peaks at short positive lags (SOI leads by ~1 month; r ~ 0.45–0.53), implying higher sea level during La Niña and lower during El Niño. These sign-and-lag relationships, combined with tide and surge information, have the potential to inform seasonal outlooks for ports and low-lying coastal areas of Java.
Co-Authors Aries Kristianto Athallah, M. Syauqi B. Avrionesti, Avrionesti Haryanto, Yosafat D. Nugraheni, Imma Redha Rejeki, Hasti Amrih Yusuf Jati Wijaya