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All Journal Jurnal Informatika Ekonomi Bisnis Electronic Journal of Education, Social Economics and Technology Jurnal Informatika Ekonomi Bisnis Jurnal Ilmiah Multidisiplin Indonesia
Azry, Said Maulana
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Navigating Trade Turbulence: Identifying Indonesia's Optimal Trade Partners Amid the US-China Trade War Using Relative Output, Market Potential, and Trade Openness Azry, Said Maulana; Muharja, Fajri
Electronic Journal of Education, Social Economics and Technology Vol 6, No 1 (2025)
Publisher : SAINTIS Publishing

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33122/ejeset.v6i1.737

Abstract

This study investigates how Indonesia can identify optimal bilateral trade partners by analyzing the effects of relative output, market potential, and trade openness on its terms of trade (ToT). The analysis is timely amid escalating U.S.–China trade tensions (2024–2025), which have disrupted global supply chains and altered trade dynamics. Using panel data from 2009 to 2019, the study avoids periods of major shocks such as the 2007–2008 global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic post-2020. A quasi-maximum likelihood (QML) method is employed to estimate the impact of bilateral economic fundamentals on Indonesia’s ToT, accounting for heterogeneity and endogeneity. Results show that Indonesia’s ToT improves when trading with countries that have higher relative output, expanding market potential, and greater trade openness. These findings highlight the importance of trade diversification and suggest that Indonesia should prioritize partnerships with dynamic, open economies to strengthen its resilience to global trade shocks. The study offers strategic insights for navigating a shifting international trade environment.
Optimizing Location for Downstream Industry on Remote Island Products N, Zulkifli; Azry, Said Maulana
Jurnal Informatika Ekonomi Bisnis Vol. 7, No. 4 (December 2025): Accepted
Publisher : SAFE-Network

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37034/infeb.v7i4.1284

Abstract

This research aims to select the most optimal and efficient location for frozen banana fritter production to support efforts in optimizing downstreaming of leading commodity industries of Kepulauan Mentawai Regency. The research evaluates potential sites in Padang City and Kepulauan Mentawai Regency, employing the Economic Analysis method with the Brown-Gibson model, combining quantitative and qualitative approaches. Factors influencing frozen banana fritter production and site selection are examined through market surveys and interviews with relevant experts and stakeholders. The findings highlight Padang City as the ideal production site. This research holds significance in enhancing the local economy, especially in Kepulauan Mentawai Regency, classified as a 3T area in West Sumatra province. The results provide valuable insights for stakeholders in choosing suitable production sites for frozen banana fritters, contributing to economic improvement in the region.
Optimizing Location for Downstream Industry on Remote Island Products N, Zulkifli; Azry, Said Maulana
Jurnal Informatika Ekonomi Bisnis Vol. 7, No. 4 (December 2025): Accepted
Publisher : SAFE-Network

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37034/infeb.v7i4.1284

Abstract

This research aims to select the most optimal and efficient location for frozen banana fritter production to support efforts in optimizing downstreaming of leading commodity industries of Kepulauan Mentawai Regency. The research evaluates potential sites in Padang City and Kepulauan Mentawai Regency, employing the Economic Analysis method with the Brown-Gibson model, combining quantitative and qualitative approaches. Factors influencing frozen banana fritter production and site selection are examined through market surveys and interviews with relevant experts and stakeholders. The findings highlight Padang City as the ideal production site. This research holds significance in enhancing the local economy, especially in Kepulauan Mentawai Regency, classified as a 3T area in West Sumatra province. The results provide valuable insights for stakeholders in choosing suitable production sites for frozen banana fritters, contributing to economic improvement in the region.
U.S. Tariff Policy and the Joint Reaction of Indonesia’s Stock and Gold Markets Wefielananda, Rahmi Afzhi; Andriani, Yessy; Azry, Said Maulana
Jurnal Ilmiah Multidisiplin Indonesia (JIM-ID) Vol. 4 No. 11 (2025): Jurnal Ilmiah Multidisplin Indonesia (JIM-ID) , 2025
Publisher : Sean Institute

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

The United States exerts a substantial influence on the global economy. Its trade policies not only directly affect its trading partners but also generate broader multiplier effects across other national economies. This study examines the impact of the reciprocal tariff policy announced by the United States government in February 2025 on stock and gold prices in Indonesia. Using the Three-Stage Least Squares (3SLS) method, the results show that the tariff policy significantly influences both variables. Gold prices respond positively two weeks after the tariff announcement, while stock prices react negatively in the same week, rebound in the following week, and decline again in the second week. Furthermore, changes in gold prices significantly affect stock prices at the fourth lag, whereas changes in stock prices have no significant effect on gold prices. These empirical findings are consistent with the Efficient Market Hypothesis, Rational Expectations Theory, the Hedging and Safe Haven Asset Hypothesis, and the Asset Substitution Hypothesis. Overall, the study demonstrates that Indonesian investors respond rationally to global policy changes in line with financial market dynamics.
Co-Authors MUHARJA, FAJRI Wefielananda, Rahmi Afzhi Zulkifli N