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All Journal Jurnal Matematika dan Statistika serta Aplikasinya (Jurnal MSA) Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Its Applications
Alandra, Cindy Resha
Unknown Affiliation
Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Environmental Science Mathematics Medicine & Pharmacology Other

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Application of the ARIMA Method for Forecasting the Average Corn Production in Padang Pariaman Regency Alandra, Cindy Resha; Dony Permana
Jurnal MSA (Matematika dan Statistika serta Aplikasinya) Vol 13 No 1 (2025): VOLUME 13 NO 1 TAHUN 2025
Publisher : Universitas Islam Negeri Alauddin Makassar

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24252/msa.v13i1.55288

Abstract

Jagung memegang peranan penting dalam sektor pertanian dan menempati peringkat ketiga sebagai tanaman pokok terpenting di dunia setelah beras dan gandum. Di Indonesia, jagung merupakan komoditas strategis yang banyak digunakan sebagai bahan pangan, pakan ternak, dan bahan baku industri. Produksi jagung di Kabupaten Padang Pariaman berfluktuasi dari waktu ke waktu, sehingga memerlukan peramalan yang akurat untuk mendukung perencanaan dan pembuatan kebijakan pertanian. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk meramalkan rata-rata produksi jagung di Kabupaten Padang Pariaman selama kurun waktu lima tahun (2022–2026) dengan menggunakan model Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). Beberapa langkah yang dilakukan dalam penelitian ini meliputi pengumpulan data, pengujian stasioneritas, pemilihan model, pemeriksaan diagnostik, dan peramalan. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa model ARIMA yang paling sesuai adalah ARIMA(1,0,0), yang menunjukkan bahwa model ini paling sesuai untuk memprediksi tren masa depan rata-rata produksi jagung di Kabupaten Padang Pariaman. Hasil prakiraan menunjukkan penurunan produksi jagung selama lima tahun ke depan, dengan Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) sebesar 7,57%, yang menunjukkan tingkat akurasi prakiraan yang tinggi. Temuan ini menyoroti perlunya intervensi strategis dari pemerintah dan petani untuk mengatasi masalah ini secara efektif.
Forecasting Foreign Tourists to West Sumatera Before and After COVID-19 Using ARIMA and Prophet and Its Impact on Foreign Exchange Alandra, Cindy Resha; Permana, Dony; Vionanda, Dodi; Fitria, Dina
Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Applications Vol 9 No 2 (2025)
Publisher : Statistics and Data Science Program Study, SSMI, IPB University, in collaboration with the Forum Pendidikan Tinggi Statistika Indonesia (FORSTAT) and the Ikatan Statistisi Indonesia (ISI)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/ijsa.v9i2p157-168

Abstract

Foreign exchange earnings are very important for the improvement of the economy in Indonesia, where these foreign exchange earnings can be obtained through the tourism sector. One of the provinces in Indonesia that is a major tourist destination is West Sumatra. The number of foreign tourists coming to West Sumatra is influenced by various factors, one of which is the COVID-19 pandemic that resulted in a decrease in visitor numbers. The research was conducted to forecast the number of foreign tourists to West Sumatra using the ARIMA and Prophet methods, as well as to calculate the loss and foreign exchange earnings and the forecasting accuracy of both methods. The data for this study was taken from the BPS West Sumatra website regarding the number of foreign tourists to West Sumatra from 2015 to 2024. In this data, forecasting for the year 2020 will be done using the ARIMA method and forecasting for the year 2025 using the Prophet method. The data in this study tends to be stable before the pandemic, making the ARIMA method suitable. Meanwhile, after the pandemic, the data fluctuated, making the Prophet method suitable. From the results obtained, the best ARIMA model is ARIMA (1, 0, 1). The forecasting accuracy is 1.82% with an estimated foreign exchange loss of $52,095,688 for the year 2020. Meanwhile, using the Prophet method, the forecasting accuracy obtained is 12.13% with an estimated foreign exchange revenue of $208,546,812 for the year 2025.
Co-Authors Dina Fitria, Dina Dodi Vionanda Dony Permana Permana, Dony