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All Journal Griya Journal of Mathematics Education and Application Innovative: Journal Of Social Science Research
Purba, Rut Omega
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Humanities Computer Science & IT Education Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Mathematics Public Health Other

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Simulasi Monte Carlo Untuk Prediksi dan Analisis Tindak Pidana di Sumatera Utara Gultom, Ledy Meva Tiurma; Felicia Eldora; Khoiriyati Azmi; Purba, Rut Omega; Karin Aulia Putri; Manullang, Sudianto; Nasution, Alvi Sahrin
Griya Journal of Mathematics Education and Application Vol. 5 No. 3 (2025): September 2025
Publisher : Pendidikan Matematika FKIP Universitas Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29303/griya.v5i3.641

Abstract

Crime data in North Sumatra Province obtained from the Central Statistics Agency shows an upward trend, peaking in 2023. This condition presents an urgent need for swift and appropriate policy intervention. The effectiveness of such policies is measured by their ability to significantly reduce crime rates. This study aims to forecast the trend of criminal acts in North Sumatra for the period 2024–2028 using the Monte Carlo Simulation method, based on historical data from 2000 to 2023. The stochastic simulation approach was chosen to accommodate the uncertainty and variability inherent in crime data. The results provide probabilistic predictions that can serve as a reference for the government in designing more adaptive and responsive crime prevention policies. This model is expected to offer realistic estimates of potential increases or decreases in crime, thereby enabling more targeted and data-driven decisions. Overall, the findings of this study contribute to the development of strategic, risk-based security policies that reflect the dynamic nature of criminal activity.
Valuasi Premi dan Nilai Tunai Produk Asuransi Jiwa Unit Link Allianz Berdasarkan Model Probabilistik Farhan Anshari; Karin Aulia Putri; Purba, Rut Omega
Innovative: Journal Of Social Science Research Vol. 4 No. 6 (2024): Innovative: Journal Of Social Science Research
Publisher : Universitas Pahlawan Tuanku Tambusai

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31004/innovative.v4i6.16036

Abstract

Penelitian ini membahas valuasi premi dan nilai tunai dari produk asuransi jiwa unit link Allianz menggunakan model probabilistik. Metodologi yang diterapkan meliputi model mortalitas untuk mengestimasi risiko kematian berdasarkan usia dan profil demografi, serta model investasi untuk menganalisis potensi pengembalian investasi dari premi tahunan sebesar Rp. 24.000.000. Hasil analisis menunjukkan proyeksi nilai tunai untuk nasabah berusia 27 hingga 100 tahun dengan variasi tingkat pengembalian investasi (-1%, 0%, 5%, dan 10%). Penemuan ini mengindikasikan bahwa kinerja investasi secara signifikan mempengaruhi nilai tunai dan manfaat meninggal dunia yang diterima oleh nasabah. Dengan demikian, kombinasi antara risiko kematian dan kinerja investasi memberikan wawasan penting dalam pengambilan keputusan terkait premi dan pengelolaan polis asuransi.
Co-Authors Farhan Anshari Felicia Eldora Gultom, Ledy Meva Tiurma Karin Aulia Putri Khoiriyati Azmi Manullang, Sudianto Nasution, Alvi Sahrin