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All Journal BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan
Qatrunnada, Dhiya
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Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Economics, Econometrics & Finance Energy Engineering Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Transportation

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HOLT-WINTER METHOD FOR FORECASTING LIQUID ALUMINIUM SULFATE USAGE FOR PROBABILISTIC INVENTORY MODELING Q WITH ERLANG DISTRIBUTION Dwipurwani, Oki; Puspita, Fitri Maya; Supadi, Siti Suzlin; Yuliza, Evi; Qatrunnada, Dhiya
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 19 No 1 (2025): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol19iss1pp453-464

Abstract

Water is a natural resource important for life and daily activities. Water distributed by the Regional Drinking Water Company (PDAM) should include a coagulation process using liquid aluminum sulfate as a coagulant before it can be consumed. Therefore, this research aims to predict the need for liquid aluminum sulfate in PDAM from 2023 to 2024 using Holt-Winter's method. It also aims to evaluate the optimum liquid aluminum sulfate chemical inventory policy using Q probabilistic inventory model with Normal and erlang probabilistic distributions in PDAM. The data was obtained from Tirta Musi PDAM in Palembang City, Indonesia. The results of forecasting liquid aluminum sulfate demand level data with the Holt-Winter multiplicative method provide the smallest MAPE value. The erlang probability distribution assumption has been met through the Kolmogorov Smirnov test method. The erlang probabilistic inventory model provides a more optimal policy solution than the normal probabilistic inventory model, with minimum total cost and higher service level.
Co-Authors Evi Yuliza, Evi Fitri Maya Puspita Oki Dwipurwani Supadi, Siti Suzlin