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All Journal CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan
Nahar, Muhammad Hafidzuddin
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Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Economics, Econometrics & Finance Energy Engineering Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Transportation

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MODELING DEMOCRACY INDEX IN INDONESIA WITH MULTIVARIATE ADAPTIVE REGRESSION SPLINE APPROACH Saifudin, Toha; Suliyanto, Suliyanto; Nugraha, Galuh Cahya; Valida, Hanny; Nahar, Muhammad Hafidzuddin; Fortunata, Regina
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 19 No 4 (2025): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol19iss4pp2347-2358

Abstract

Democracy is a system of government where citizens participate in political decision-making through freely elected representatives. To measure the quality of democracy in Indonesia, the Indonesian Democracy Index (IDI) is used as a composite indicator reflecting various aspects of political freedoms, civil liberties, and governance. The IDI score declined from 6.71 in 2022 to 6.53 in 2023, the lowest in 14 years, indicating disruption in Indonesia’s democracy. Therefore, it is necessary to identify the root causes of the disruption in Indonesia’s democracy through several indicators. This study analyzes the relationship between predictor variables, including socio-economic and development indicators, and IDI using the Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS) approach. This study uses the MARS method by considering six predictor variables, namely the Human Development Index (HDI), Gender Empowerment Index (GEI), Information and Communication Technology Development Index (ICT-DI), Press Freedom Index (PFI), Poverty Depth Index (PDI), and High School Completion Rate (HSCR). The data used is secondary data from 34 Indonesian provinces in 2023 obtained from the Statistics Indonesia-BPS. The results showed that the best model was obtained with a combination of BF = 12, MI = 3, and MO = 1 resulting in a GCV value of 11.27 and R2 of 80%. MARS model interpretation identifies the significant influence of social and economic indicators on IDI and is able to explain 80% of data variability. The significance test shows that all predictor variables significantly affect the IDI, with the highest level of importance on the ICT-DI variable. Therefore, improving ICT-DI in each province needs to be a major concern as a strategic step to improve the democracy index in Indonesia and support the achievement of Sustainable Development Goal 16 on peace, justice, and strong institutions.
Analysis of Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression Models with A Bisquare Weighting Matrix on Poverty Status in West Java Saifudin, Toha; Chamidah, Nur; Aldawiyah, Najwa Khoir; Marthabakti, Citrawani; Ramadhanti, Aulia; Nahar, Muhammad Hafidzuddin; Muzakki, Naufal
CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi Vol 10, No 2 (2025): CAUCHY: JURNAL MATEMATIKA MURNI DAN APLIKASI
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Universitas Islam Negeri Maulana Malik Ibrahim Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18860/cauchy.v10i2.36315

Abstract

This research addresses the first Sustainable Development Goal and aims to analyze poverty status in West Java Province, which has the second highest number of poor people in Indonesia. The study employs Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression (GWLR) and compares it with global logistic regression. Influential variables include GDP, unemployment, population density, access to safe water, and roof type (bamboo/wood). Results show that 55.6% of regions are classified as poor, with the GWLR model using a Fixed Bisquare kernel achieving 81.4% accuracy, outperforming global logistic regression at 66.7%. Significant variables vary by region: unemployment rate in Bogor, Depok, and Bekasi; population density in Bekasi, Karawang, and Purwakarta; water access in Sukabumi; and roof type in Indramayu and Bogor. These spatial variations suggest that poverty reduction requires a region-specific approach. Consequently, policies should be formulated considering the priorities and characteristics of each region in West Java Province.
Co-Authors Aldawiyah, Najwa Khoir Fortunata, Regina Marthabakti, CitraWani Muzakki, Naufal Nugraha, Galuh Cahya Nur Chamidah Ramadhanti, Aulia Suliyanto Suliyanto Toha Saifudin Valida, Hanny