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All Journal Jurnal Perspektif Pembiayaan dan Pembangunan Daerah International Journal of Technology, Food and Agriculture
Sari, Shania Puspita
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Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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Predicting future inflation in Indonesia using Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) Sari, Shania Puspita; Ginanjar, Irlandia; Noviyanti, Lienda
Jurnal Perspektif Pembiayaan dan Pembangunan Daerah Vol. 12 No. 2 (2024): Jurnal Perspektif Pembiayaan dan Pembangunan Daerah
Publisher : Program Magister Ilmu Ekonomi Pascasarjana Universitas Jambi

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22437/ppd.v12i2.31817

Abstract

The features of Indonesia's inflation data, which make it extremely susceptible to shocks like those felt in 2005 and 2008, as well as extensive potential influencing factors, lead to problems in forecasting inflation. These problems include time variation in coefficients, models that can change over time, and many predictors to consider. Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) solves these problems since it has evolved coefficients and models that change over time. This study uses DMA to predict future inflation by involving eight macroeconomic indicators as exogenous variables. The results of the in-sample analysis show that six predictors are significant in forecasting inflation, with posterior inclusion probability (PIP) being above 40%. Although the remaining predictors have PIP means below 40%, they can still be considered important. The out-of-sample results suggest that DMA performs better than dynamic model selection and models that don’t include exogenous variables, such as autoregressive models. The forecast results indicate a consistent pattern over the 12 months studied. The attempt to control inflation can be achieved by prioritizing the money supply factor, which has the highest PIP value, indicating that it is the most important factor.
Feasibility and Added Value of the Robusta Coffee Agroindustry in Kebun Tebu District, West Lampung Analianasari, Analianasari; Shintawati, Shintawati; Berliana, Dayang; Sari, Shania Puspita
International Journal of Technology, Food and Agriculture Vol. 1 No. 2 (2024): June
Publisher : P3M Politeknik Negeri Jember

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.25047/tefa.v1i2.4816

Abstract

The study aims to identify the characteristics of the ground coffee industry products, feasibility, and the added value of ground coffee in the Kebun Tebu District of West Lampung. The research method that the ground coffee industry will use in the Kebun Tebu sub-district uses qualitative descriptive analysis to identify the feasibility of the ground coffee business using the R/C and B/C ratio indicators, and the amount of added Value resulting from ground coffee processing is calculated using the Hayami method. The research results show that Coffee bean processing activities are financially feasible for the West Lampung Kebun Tebu industry to undertake and continue. They are also feasible for the community because they are economically profitable. Feasibility analysis based on the R/C and B/C ratio indicators shows that the ground coffee business with honey and natural processes has R/C > 1 and B/C > 0 or is worthy of business. The added value resulting from natural and processed ground coffee honey is classified as having a high value-added ratio because the Value added ratio is >40 percent, and processing ground coffee is a capital-intensive activity.
Co-Authors Analianasari Analianasari Berliana, Dayang Irlandia Ginanjar Lienda Noviyanti shintawati, shintawati