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All Journal Journal of Innovation Research and Knowledge Jurnal Publikasi Ekonomi dan Akuntansi
Naila Septa Ridhoni
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Humanities Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Health Professions Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Social Sciences

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PERAMALAN VOLUME EKSPOR KELAPA INDRAGIRI HILIR MENGGUNAKAN MODEL TRIPLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING Fitri, Syakirah Athiyyah; Naila Septa Ridhoni; Wellyn Cesharina Meylan; Daffa Albarak; Muhammad Hamid
Journal of Innovation Research and Knowledge Vol. 5 No. 7 (2025): Desember 2025
Publisher : Bajang Institute

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Abstract

Volume eskpor kalapa di Kabupaten Indragiri Hilir merupakan indikator penting bagi kinerja ekonomi daerah, meningat wilayah ini adalah penghasil kelapa terbesar di Provinsi Riau. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis pola dan meramalkan volume ekspor kelapa menggunakan metode Triple Exponential Smoothing (TES), mengingat adanya fluktuasi historis dan pengaruh musiman. Data yang digunakan merupakan deret waktu periode 2015 – 2024, dengan kompenen pemulusan level, tren, dan musiman. Akurasi model dievaluasi menggunakan Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa volume ekspor kelapa cenderung meningkat dalam jangka panjang dan sangat dipengaruhi oleh pola musiman produksi. Komponen musiman tercatat sebagai faktor dominan dalam pergerakan data, sementara MAPE sebesar 13,32% mengindikasikan bahwa model TES memiliki akurasi yang baik. Peramalan untuk periode 2025 – 2026 memperlihatkan pola musiman yang konsisten, dengan puncak ekspor pada Agustus dan titik terendah pada Januari. Secara keseluruhan, metode TES efektif digunakan pada data dengan pola musiman yang kuat dan dapat menjadi dasar perencanaan ekspor serta pengelolaan produksi kelapa di Indragiri Hilir.
Pengaruh Kepadatan Penduduk dan Kemiskinan terhadap Kejahatan Properti di Provinsi Sumatera Utara Syakirah Athiyyah Fitri; Naila Septa Ridhoni; Tria Lestari; Fadya Eriza Zuhry; Elysia Vania Agata; Ufira Isbah
Jurnal Publikasi Ekonomi dan Akuntansi Vol. 6 No. 3 (2026): September : Jurnal Publikasi Ekonomi dan Akuntansi
Publisher : Pusat Riset dan Inovasi Nasional

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.51903/jupea.v6i3.7366

Abstract

Crime is one of the social problems that can disrupt public security and order while causing both economic and psychological losses. Based on data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) in 2024, theft was the most common type of crime in Indonesia and is classified as a crime against property without the use of violence, commonly referred to as property crime. At the provincial level, North Sumatra is among the regions with a relatively high number of property crime cases in Indonesia. Furthermore, the number of property crime cases in the province has shown an increasing trend in recent years despite a decline in the poverty rate. This condition indicates that social and economic factors may influence the level of property crime. This study aims to analyze the effect of population density and poverty on property crime in North Sumatra Province during the period 2015-2024. The study employs a quantitative associative approach using multiple linear regression analysis and secondary time-series data obtained from Statistics Indonesia (BPS). The results show that, partially, both population density and poverty have a positive and significant effect on property crime. Simultaneously, these two variables also have a significant effect on property crime. Furthermore, the model explains 72.4% of the variation in property crime. These findings indicate that increases in population density and poverty tend to be associated with higher levels of property crime
Co-Authors Daffa Albarak Elysia Vania Agata Fadya Eriza Zuhry Fitri, Syakirah Athiyyah M Hamid Syakirah Athiyyah Fitri Tria Lestari Ufira Isbah Wellyn Cesharina Meylan