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All Journal G-Tech : Jurnal Teknologi Terapan
Asmara Iriani Tarigan
Universitas Terbuka, Indonesia
Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Energy Engineering

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A SIAR Model Approach to the Impact of Mudik Tradition on Covid-19 Transmission in Indonesia Darsih Idayani; Asmara Iriani Tarigan; Selly Anastassia Amellia Kharis; Heny Kurniawati
G-Tech: Jurnal Teknologi Terapan Vol 9 No 3 (2025): G-Tech, Vol. 9 No. 3 July 2025
Publisher : Universitas Islam Raden Rahmat, Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.70609/g-tech.v9i3.7308

Abstract

In Indonesia, on March 2, 2020, the government announced the first case of Covid-19. Preventing the COVID-19 spread in Indonesia is challenging because the people are very diverse, and not everyone has the same understanding of the transmission of COVID-19. In addition, the Indonesians has mudik tradition, going home yearly on Eid al-Fitr. This study developed an epidemic model of Covid-19 spread SIAR by adding migration factors to represent the mudik tradition. The disease-free equilibrium point, the endemic equilibrium point, and its stability were determined. Numerical simulations were done using Covid-19 transmission data to analyze the trend of symptomatic and asymptomatic infected subpopulations. The results show that the dynamic characteristics of Covid-19 cases were semi-stable in compartments S, I, and A. This condition means that S, I, and A will rise at a certain time. In a disease-free situation, the susceptible subpopulation S is stable at a certain value. At the same time, other subpopulations are stable at almost zero and at zero. The susceptible subpopulation S in a disease-free situation is larger than during an epidemic. The number of people in disease-free conditions is smaller than those in epidemic conditions. In addition, migration at a certain level can increase the spread of Covid-19.
Co-Authors Darsih Idayani Heny Kurniawati Selly Anastassia Amellia Kharis