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All Journal Jurnal Ilmu Sosial, Ekonomi dan Pendidikan Islamic Studies and Education Journal
Hari Suriadi
Universitas Muhammadiyah Sumatera Barat
Religion Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Environmental Science Social Sciences Other

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Prediksi Arah Harga Cryptocurrency Menggunakan Hybrid Lstm Encoder dan Xgboost Head: Implementasi dan Evaluasi pada 10 Aset Digital Utama Ade Kurniawan; Muliyono; Hari Suriadi
Jurnal Ilmu Sosial, Ekonomi dan Pendidikan Vol. 1 No. 2 (2025): Oktober 2025
Publisher : Suria Academic Press

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Abstract

The primary challenge in cryptocurrency price prediction lies in the market’s highly volatile, non-linear, and near–random walk behavior, which makes traditional predictive models unable to achieve consistent accuracy. This study aims to develop and evaluate a hybrid model combining Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and XGBoost to predict price direction and returns for ten major cryptocurrencies using daily data from 2023 to 2025. Historical data were processed through feature engineering, normalization, and sliding-window sequence construction, and the models were evaluated using TimeSeriesSplit to prevent data leakage. The results show that the hybrid model consistently outperformed both LSTM and XGBoost, achieving an average directional accuracy of 58.6%, significantly higher than the baselines (51.7% for LSTM and 53.6% for XGBoost). The average RMSE of 0.0289 indicates stable return predictions without systematic bias. Statistical validation through paired t-tests and McNemar tests confirmed the significance of the improvement at p < 0.001. A trading simulation using a 1-day holding period produced an annualized return of 41.5% with a Sharpe ratio of 1.12, outperforming the buy-and-hold strategy. These findings highlight that integrating LSTM’s temporal representation with XGBoost’s non-linear learning capabilities is an effective and computationally efficient approach for cryptocurrency price forecasting, offering practical value for the development of algorithmic trading systems.
Development of Contextual Teaching and Learning (CTL)–Based Digital Instructional Materials Integrated with Islamic Values for Pancasila Education at SDIT Raisya Andre Pandoe; Arwin; Hari Suriadi
Islamic Studies and Education Journal Vol. 1 No. 1 (2025): Edisi December 2025
Publisher : Suria Academic Press

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Learning of Pancasila Education in elementary schools remains insufficiently contextual and lacks the utilization of digital media; therefore, it is necessary to develop CTL-based teaching materials integrated with Islamic values to foster students’ national and religious character. This study aims to develop and examine the feasibility of Digital Teaching Materials for Pancasila Education based on the Contextual Teaching and Learning (CTL) approach integrated with Islamic values for Grade IV students at Integrated Islamic Elementary Schools (SDIT). The research employed a Research and Development (R&D) method using the ADDIE model, which consists of five stages: Analysis, Design, Development, Implementation, and Evaluation. The research subjects included teachers and Grade IV students from four SDIT in Padang City: SDIT Arafah, SD Islam Nibros, SDIT Cendekia Andalas, and SDIT Permata. Research instruments consisted of validation sheets for material experts, media experts, and language experts, as well as practicality questionnaires for teachers and students, and learning outcome tests (pretest–posttest). The results showed that the developed product was categorized as highly valid with an average score of 93%, highly practical with a score of 93.5%, and effective in improving students’ learning outcomes with an N-Gain score of 0.75 (high category). Learning using CTL-based digital teaching materials was proven to enhance student engagement, understanding, and character formation, particularly in instilling the values of unity, ukhuwah (brotherhood), ta’awun (mutual help), and amanah (responsibility). Thus, the CTL-Based Digital Teaching Materials for Pancasila Education Integrated with Islamic Values are declared valid, practical, and effective as an innovative instructional resource for Pancasila Education in integrated Islamic elementary schools. This product is expected to serve as a reference for developing contextual and character-based digital learning media in the era of the Kurikulum Merdeka.
Co-Authors Ade Kurniawan Arwin Muliyono Raisya Andre Pandoe