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Ayuningrum, Adinda Safira Santoso
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Humanities Computer Science & IT Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences

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Peramalan Jumlah Wisatawan Mancanegara yang Datang ke Bali Tahun 2025 Menggunakan SARIMAX dan Data Google Trends Ayuningrum, Adinda Safira Santoso; Sari, Nindy Candra Ayu Puspa; Ihsan, Nur Faqih; -, Nasrudin
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2025 No 1 (2025): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2025
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2025i1.2472

Abstract

Bali is a tourist destination that is in demand by foreign tourists, which continues to increase every year, so the government and local communities need strategies or policies that can be taken so that this becomes an advantage. There is a gap in the data available by the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) as the data provider, so Google Trends is used to fill the gap. Tourist projections rely heavily on historical data sourced from conventional statistical reports, which, although they have a high level of accuracy, are often accompanied by significant time lags and are less responsive to dynamic changes in tourist behavior. This research aims to provide more accurate and responsive predictions by considering exogenous variables in the form of GTI with the keywords "Bali", "Bali Hotel", "Bali `Flight", and "Bali Destination". The best model selected was SARIMAX(2,0,0)(2,1,0)12, with RMSE and sMAPE of 5.994 and 0.845. The number of foreign tourists coming to Bali is estimated to reach its peak in August 2025 at 641,553 people.
Nowcasting Pergerakan Indeks Saham Lingkungan Berdasarkan Minat Publik terhadap Isu Lingkungan Zareka, Andi Muh. Zulfadhil; Ayuningrum, Adinda Safira Santoso; Adnyana, I Kadek Surya Wisesa; Kurniawan, Robert
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2025 No 1 (2025): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2025
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2025i1.2585

Abstract

The growing awareness among investors regarding environmental, social, and governance (ESG) aspects has increased attention toward the performance of environmentally-based stock indices. This condition has created a need for a nowcasting approach that is responsive to real-time public interest dynamics and market sentiment. This study aims to analyze public interest in environmental issues measured using Google Trends web search volume as a proxy for collective sentiment in predicting the movement of environmental stock indices. ARIMAX, SARIMAX, Random Forest, SVR, and XGBoost models are implemented and evaluated for their performance in predicting index movements. The results show that SVR, with an RMSE of 20.3646, is the best-performing model. These findings indicate that public interest in environmental issues has significant potential as an effective indicator for real-time prediction of environmental stock index movements, offering valuable insights for investors and market analysts in developing investment strategies that are more responsive to market dynamics influenced by sustainability factors.
Co-Authors Adnyana, I Kadek Surya Wisesa Ihsan, Nur Faqih Nasrudin - Robert Kurniawan, Robert Sari, Nindy Candra Ayu Puspa Zareka, Andi Muh. Zulfadhil