Article Per Year (5 Year)
p-Index From 2021 - 2026
0.23
P-Index
This Author published in this journals
All Journal International Journal of Economics Development Research (IJEDR)
Mabrurah, Mubrikatul
Unknown Affiliation
Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences

Published : 1 Documents Claim Missing Document
Claim Missing Document
Check
Articles

Found 1 Documents
Search

 1 
How Trade War Shocks Shape Reserve Accumulation? Evidence from MENA Countries Riskiana, Riskiana; Mabrurah, Mubrikatul; Zain, Nurafifah; Zakaria, Avien
International Journal of Economics Development Research (IJEDR) Vol. 6 No. 6 (2025): International Journal of Economics Development Research (IJEDR)
Publisher : Yayasan Riset dan Pengembangan Intelektual

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37385/ijedr.v6i6.9829

Abstract

The study examines the effects of trade war tensions, exchange rate volatility, and financial depth on foreign exchange reserves in 14 MENA countries from 2000 to 2024. Using the Panel Vector Error Correction Model (PVECM), the analysis captures both short-run dynamics and long-run equilibrium relationships. Stationarity and cointegration tests confirm that all variables are integrated at the I(1) level and exhibit a stable long-term relationship. The PVECM results show that none of the key variables significantly affect FER in the short term. In the long term, however, TWI demonstrates a positive and significant impact, indicating that prolonged global trade tensions encourage MENA countries to increase reserve accumulation as a precautionary response to external uncertainty. Conversely, FD exerts a negative and significant long-term effect, suggesting that deeper financial markets may reduce reserve holdings through greater foreign currency demand and increased financial openness. Meanwhile, ERV shows a negative long-term relationship with FER but lacks statistical significance in either the long or short term, indicating that exchange rate fluctuations do not directly drive reserve adjustment behavior in MENA economies. These findings highlight the importance for policymakers to strengthen external resilience and manage financial sector development carefully to ensure foreign exchange reserve stability amid intensifying global geopolitical tensions. Keywords: Foreign Exchange Rate, Trade War, Exchange Rate Volatility, Financial Depth
Co-Authors Riskiana, Riskiana Zain, Nurafifah Zakaria, Avien