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All Journal Jurnal Matematika Sains dan Teknologi FARABI: Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Journal of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Business Jurnal Ilmu Komputer dan Matematika
Ivanna Isty Nursani
Universitas Muhammadiyah Kudus
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Electrical & Electronics Engineering Engineering Mathematics Other

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DINAMIKA PERKEMBANGAN HIV/AIDS DI KABUPATEN KUDUS MENGGUNAKAN MODEL PERSAMAAN DIFERENSIAL NONLINEAR SIR (SUSCEPTIBLE, INFECTIOUS AND RECOVERED) Ivanna Isty Nursani; Nur Alisa; Irma Latifah; Melvin Dewi Rosita
JURNAL ILMU KOMPUTER DAN MATEMATIKA Vol 4, No 2 (2023): JURNAL ILMU KOMPUTER DAN MATEMATIKA
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Kudus

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26751/jikoma.v4i2.1982

Abstract

HIV/AIDS is the Human Immunodeficiency Virus, or HIV is often abbreviated as a deadly virus from two lentivirus species that cause it. The virus attacks humans and attacks the immune system, so that the body becomes weak in fighting infection. HIV/AIDS will also occur in Kudus Regency in 2021, there will be an additional 124 cases of HIV/AIDS sufferers in Kudus. But for this year, from January to October 2022, the number of confirmed cases has grown by 184. Head of Disease Prevention and Control, Kudus District Health Office (DKK), Darsono, said the phenomenon of the rise of 'open BO' was one of the factors for the rapid growth of HIV/AIDS cases. Therefore, a study was conducted to determine the dynamics of HIV/AIDS development in Kudus District using the SIR nonlinear differential equation model. The data used is data on the number of people living with HIV/AIDS and the total population in Kudus Regency for 2020 – 2021 from the Central Statistics Agency and the Kudus District Health Office. In this study, it was concluded that there would be an epidemic of HIV/AIDS in a period of up to 50 years.
PREDIKSI KEPENDUDUKAN DAN KETENAGAKERJAAN KABUPATEN KUDUS TAHUN 2023 Ivanna Isty Nursani; Muhammad Faudzi Bahari; Khoirun Nisa Syifan
JURNAL ILMU KOMPUTER DAN MATEMATIKA Vol 5, No 2 (2024): JURNAL ILMU KOMPUTER DAN MATEMATIKA
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Kudus

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26751/jikoma.v5i2.2336

Abstract

Data kependudukan merupakan data pokok yang dibutuhkan oleh kalangan pemerintah ataupun swasta sebagai bahan perencanaan dan evaluasi hasil pembangunan. Hampir setiap aspek perencanaan pembangunan di bidang sosial, ekonomi ataupun politik memerlukan data kependudukan karena penduduk merupakan subjek sekaligus objek dari pembangunan. Jumlah penduduk Kabupaten Kudus pada tahun 2022 adalah 856.472 jiwa yang terdiri dari 427.243 jiwa laki-laki (49,88 persen) dan 429.229 jiwa perempuan (50,11 persen). Kecamatan Jati memiliki persentase penduduk terbesar, yaitu 12,81 persen dari penduduk Kabupaten Kudus. Kecamatan Bae memiliki persentase penduduk terkecil, yaitu 8,73 persen dari penduduk Kabupaten Kudus. Pada tahun 2022, sex ratio penduduk Kabupaten Kudus adalah 99,54. Artinya setiap 100 penduduk perempuan terdapat 99 penduduk laki-laki. Akan tetapi, sex ratio tersebut bervariasi di setiap kecamatan. Kepadatan penduduk di Kabupaten Kudus adalah 2.014 jiwa setiap satu kilometer persegi. Kecamatan terpadat adalah Kecamatan Kota Kudus sedangkan kecamatan dengan kepadatan terendah adalah Kecamatan Undaan.
Pemodelan Pengajuan Klaim Asuransi Sosial Kecelakaan Lalu Lintas Menggunakan Metode ARIMA Khoirun Nisak Syifana; Ade Ima Afifa Himayati; Ivanna Isty Nursani
FARABI: Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Vol 9 No 1 (2026): FARABI: Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika
Publisher : Program Studi Pendidikan Matematika FKIP UNIVA Medan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47662/farabi.v9i1.1430

Abstract

One consequence of the rising number of traffic accidents is the increase in the burden of insurance claims on insurance companies, especially social insurance for traffic accidents. Unexpected fluctuations in claim numbers create challenges for companies, so forecasting is needed to identify future trends in claim numbers. The number of claims submitted is recorded periodically, thereby forming time series data. This allows for the application of time series analysis, such as the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method. This study aims to to model and forecast the number of traffic accident social insurance claims using the ARIMA method. This study utilizes recapitulation data on traffic accident social insurance claim submissions spanning 120 weeks from July 2023 – December 2025. The ARIMA method is employed to identify the optimal ARIMA (p,d,q) model for the data. Analysis results indicate that ARIMA (3,1,0) is the optimal model, with a Mean Squared Error (MSE) of 150,054 and a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 10,53%. Forecasting results for the next 20 weeks reveals a stable tren in claims. This suggest that there is no significant increase or decrease in insurance claims during the forecast period.
Analisis Komparatif Pendekatan Deterministik dan Probabilistik dalam Prediksi Penyelesaian Jumlah Klaim Asuransi Sosial Kecelakaan Lalu Lintas Dina Amalia Fitri; Ade Ima Afifa Himayati; Ivanna Isty Nursani
RIGGS: Journal of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Business Vol. 5 No. 2 (2026): Mei-Juli
Publisher : Prodi Bisnis Digital Universitas Pahlawan Tuanku Tambusai

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31004/riggs.v5i2.11269

Abstract

Jumlah penyelesaian klaim asuransi sosial kecelakaan lalu lintas mengalami fluktuasi yang dipengaruhi oleh berbagai faktor, seperti tingkat kecelakaan, mobilitas masyarakat, dan kondisi transportasi. Fluktuasi tersebut menimbulkan ketidakpastian dalam perencanaan cadangan dana klaim dan pengelolaan risiko, sehingga diperlukan metode prediksi yang mampu menghasilkan estimasi secara akurat. Penelitian ini bertujuan membandingkan kinerja metode Double Moving Average (DMA) sebagai pendekatan deterministik dan metode Monte Carlo sebagai pendekatan probabilistik dalam memprediksi jumlah penyelesaian klaim asuransi sosial kecelakaan lalu lintas. Data yang digunakan merupakan data sekunder berupa jumlah penyelesaian klaim bulanan periode Januari 2015 hingga Desember 2025 yang diperoleh dari salah satu instansi penyelenggara asuransi sosial kecelakaan lalu lintas di Provinsi Jawa Tengah. Akurasi hasil prediksi dievaluasi menggunakan Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Squared Error (MSE), dan Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pada periode pengujian tahun 2025 metode Double Moving Average menghasilkan nilai MAD sebesar 40,58, MSE sebesar 1.859,25, dan MAPE sebesar 8,9%, sedangkan metode Monte Carlo menghasilkan nilai MAD sebesar 80,33, MSE sebesar 9.490,00, dan MAPE sebesar 16,97%. Selain itu, metode Double Moving Average secara konsisten menghasilkan nilai MAD, MSE, dan MAPE yang lebih rendah dibandingkan metode Monte Carlo pada seluruh periode pengujian (2017–2025). Hasil tersebut menunjukkan bahwa metode Double Moving Average memiliki tingkat akurasi yang lebih baik sehingga layak direkomendasikan sebagai metode prediksi untuk mendukung perencanaan cadangan dana klaim, pengelolaan risiko, dan pengambilan keputusan pada perusahaan asuransi sosial.
Parametric and Non-Parametric Approaches to the Analysis of Adolscents' Knowledge and Attitudes on Tuberculosis Findasari Findasari; Fitriana Kartikasari; Ivanna Isty Nursani; Ndaru Atmi Purnami
Jurnal Matematika Sains dan Teknologi Vol. 26 No. 2 (2025)
Publisher : LPPM Universitas Terbuka

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33830/jmst.v26i2.13409.2025

Abstract

Pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) remains a major public health problem in Indonesia. Improving adolescents’ knowledge and attitudes through school-based health education is essential to support TB prevention efforts. This study aimed to assess changes in knowledge and attitudes toward pulmonary tuberculosis following an audiovisual-based health education intervention. A quantitative pre-experimental one-group pretest–posttest design was conducted among 103 Grade XI students in a senior high school in Kudus Regency, Central Java. Data were collected using structured questionnaires. Normality was assessed prior to analysis; as most variables violated the normality assumption (p < 0.05), the Wilcoxon Signed-Rank Test was used as the primary statistical method, while the paired t-test was performed as a supplementary comparison analysis. The results showed a significant increase in knowledge scores from a median of 26 to 28 (Z = –4.865, p < 0.001, r = 0.48) and a significant improvement in attitude scores (Z = –7.383, p < 0.001, r = 0.73). The paired t-test produced consistent results, with a mean increase of 1.835 points in knowledge (95% CI: 1.177–2.493; Cohen’s d = 0.545) and 3.417 points in attitudes (95% CI: 2.717–4.118; Cohen’s d = 0.954). Normalized gain analysis indicated that improvement in knowledge was categorized as low, whereas improvement in attitudes reached the medium category. In conclusion, audiovisual-based health education was associated with positive changes in adolescents’ knowledge and attitudes regarding pulmonary tuberculosis. However, because the study was conducted in a single school using a pre-experimental design, the findings should be generalized with caution. Further controlled studies involving more diverse populations are recommended.
Co-Authors Ade Ima Afifa Himayati Dina Amalia Fitri Findasari Findasari Fitriana Kartikasari Irma Latifah Khoirun Nisa Syifan Khoirun Nisak Syifana Melvin Dewi Rosita Muhammad Faudzi Bahari Nur Alisa Purnami, Ndaru Atmi