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Peramalan Kebutuhan Obat Kronis Berdasarkan Data Klaim BPJS Kesehatan Menggunakan Model ARIMA di Kabupaten Gunungkidul, Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta, Indonesia. Syarifuddin, Annisaul Karimah; Diana, Ina Kusuma; Verdiana, Antokalina Sari; Kristina, Susi Ari
Journal of Pharmaceutical and Sciences JPS Volume 9 Nomor 1 (2026)
Publisher : Fakultas Farmasi Universitas Tjut Nyak Dhien

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.36490/journal-jps.com.v9i1.1379

Abstract

Chronic diseases require continuous pharmacotherapy and generate sustained demand for essential medicines, particularly within universal health coverage systems. In Indonesia, pharmaceutical utilization under the National Health Insurance program is documented through administrative claims data, which provide an important basis for demand analysis and planning. This study aims to forecast chronic drug demand in Gunungkidul Regency, Special Region of Yogyakarta, using health insurance claims data and a time-series forecasting approach. A retrospective analysis was conducted using weekly aggregated claims data. Drug utilization patterns were examined, and demand forecasting was performed using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model following standard time-series procedures. Forecast accuracy was assessed by comparing predicted values with observed utilization. The results indicate that the model effectively captures weekly demand patterns and short-term fluctuations, producing forecasts that closely align with actual utilization trends. These findings demonstrate that time-series forecasting based on claims data can provide reliable estimates of chronic drug demand. The study highlights the potential value of integrating forecasting models into pharmaceutical inventory planning to support timely drug availability and improve logistics efficiency within regional health insurance implementation.
Pengaruh Kepatuhan Minum Obat terhadap Pengendalian HbA1c pada Pasien Diabetes Melitus Tipe 2: Tinjauan Sistematis Berdasarkan Metode Pengukuran Kepatuhan Diana, Ina Kusuma; Wiedyaningsih , Chairun; Kurniawati , Fivy
Journal of Pharmaceutical and Sciences JPS Volume 9 Nomor 1 (2026)
Publisher : Fakultas Farmasi Universitas Tjut Nyak Dhien

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.36490/journal-jps.com.v9i1.1415

Abstract

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is a major public health concern in Asia, where rapid urbanization and lifestyle changes have contributed to a marked increase in disease prevalence. Poor medication adherence remains a major barrier to achieving optimal glycemic control, leading to an increased risk of complications and greater healthcare burden. This systematic review aimed to examine the relationship between medication adherence and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) levels among patients with T2DM, compare the strength of this association across different adherence measurement methods, and identify key factors influencing adherence and glycemic control in Asian populations. A literature search was conducted in PubMed, Europe PMC, Scopus, and ScienceDirect for cross-sectional studies published between January 2015 and April 2025. Eligible studies included adult patients with T2DM who reported medication adherence (e.g., MMAS-8, pill counts) and HbA1c outcomes. Data were synthesized narratively, and study quality was assessed using standardized appraisal tools. Of the 584 records screened, 14 studies met the inclusion criteria. Most studies demonstrated a significant inverse association between medication adherence and HbA1c levels, with stronger associations observed when objective or multidimensional adherence measures were used. Reported adherence levels varied substantially across studies, with the proportion of high adherence ranging from 3.7% to over 58%, depending on the measurement method. Mean HbA1c values ranged from 6.4% to 9.2%. Higher educational level, greater self-efficacy, and supportive healthcare environments were associated with better adherence. In contrast, psychological distress, regimen complexity, and comorbidities were linked to lower adherence and poorer glycemic control. Medication adherence is a critical determinant of glycemic control among patients with T2DM in Asia. The choice of adherence measurement method influences the observed association with HbA1c. Interventions should address psychosocial and clinical barriers and incorporate culturally adapted, multidimensional adherence assessment approaches.