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All Journal Jurnal Locus Penelitian dan Pengabdian Indonesian Health Journal Journal of Pharmaceutical and Sciences.
Verdiana, Antokalina Sari
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Aerospace Engineering Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Automotive Engineering Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Chemistry Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Dentistry Electrical & Electronics Engineering Health Professions Immunology & microbiology Materials Science & Nanotechnology Mathematics Medicine & Pharmacology Nursing Public Health Veterinary

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Peramalan Kebutuhan Obat Kronis Berdasarkan Data Klaim BPJS Kesehatan Menggunakan Model ARIMA di Kabupaten Gunungkidul, Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta, Indonesia. Syarifuddin, Annisaul Karimah; Diana, Ina Kusuma; Verdiana, Antokalina Sari; Kristina, Susi Ari
Journal of Pharmaceutical and Sciences JPS Volume 9 Nomor 1 (2026)
Publisher : Fakultas Farmasi Universitas Tjut Nyak Dhien

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.36490/journal-jps.com.v9i1.1379

Abstract

Chronic diseases require continuous pharmacotherapy and generate sustained demand for essential medicines, particularly within universal health coverage systems. In Indonesia, pharmaceutical utilization under the National Health Insurance program is documented through administrative claims data, which provide an important basis for demand analysis and planning. This study aims to forecast chronic drug demand in Gunungkidul Regency, Special Region of Yogyakarta, using health insurance claims data and a time-series forecasting approach. A retrospective analysis was conducted using weekly aggregated claims data. Drug utilization patterns were examined, and demand forecasting was performed using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model following standard time-series procedures. Forecast accuracy was assessed by comparing predicted values with observed utilization. The results indicate that the model effectively captures weekly demand patterns and short-term fluctuations, producing forecasts that closely align with actual utilization trends. These findings demonstrate that time-series forecasting based on claims data can provide reliable estimates of chronic drug demand. The study highlights the potential value of integrating forecasting models into pharmaceutical inventory planning to support timely drug availability and improve logistics efficiency within regional health insurance implementation.
The Impact of Indonesia’s National Health Insurance on Healthcare Utilization Among the Elderly: A Decade of Implementation Verdiana, Antokalina Sari
Jurnal Locus Penelitian dan Pengabdian Vol. 5 No. 3 (2026): JURNAL LOCUS: Penelitian dan Pengabdian
Publisher : Riviera Publishing

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58344/locus.v5i3.5696

Abstract

Indonesia's elderly population (aged 60+) now exceeds 7% of the total population, creating challenges for equitable health service delivery. The National Health Insurance (JKN) program, supporting SDG 3.8, has achieved 98% population coverage over its decade-long implementation. Longitudinal Susenas survey data were used to evaluate the utilization of healthcare services among older individuals by examining their use over time and correlating it with relevant factors, which were categorized into potential predictors as defined by the Andersen model, based on demographic, socioeconomic, and healthcare need indicators. Logistic regression was conducted, and propensity score matching with a caliper of 0.05 was used to ensure statistical rigor in the study. Furthermore, the impact of JKN membership on healthcare consultations was estimated over the past decade using a difference-in-differences method. Factors influencing JKN enrollment shifted over the decade, with education and urban residence becoming more important, while internet access and health-related factors declined. JKN membership was not significant in 2013 but became significant by 2023, with a 7.71% average treatment effect. Difference-in-differences analysis shows a 5.85% increase in healthcare utilization attributable to JKN. JKN has produced modest gains in elderly healthcare utilization (5.85%). Further progress requires addressing quality perceptions and geographic inequities to achieve universal health access for Indonesia's aging population.
Provincial Analysis of Years of Life Lost and Economic Impact of Heart Disease Among the Working-Age Population in Indonesia (2018-2023) Verdiana, Antokalina Sari; Cerinda, Mitha; Mansur, Rizal; Cahyani, Fentya Yumna
Indonesian Health Journal Vol. 5 No. 1 (2026): Indonesian Health Journal
Publisher : Riviera Publishing

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58344/ihj.v5i1.829

Abstract

Heart disease is the leading cause of premature death in Indonesia, significantly impacting both health and the economy. In 2023, BPJS Kesehatan allocated IDR 23.52 trillion for heart disease treatment, the highest expenditure among all diseases. This study aims to quantify the burden of heart disease by calculating years of life lost (YLL) and productivity costs, highlighting the need for effective prevention strategies. Using BPJS Kesehatan mortality data from 2018–2023, covering 218,279 individuals, this study identified heart disease-related deaths and calculated YLL using the Burden of Disease framework and World Health Organization (WHO) life expectancy tables. The analysis focused on the working-age population (15–64 years) at national and provincial levels, linking YLL data to provincial minimum wages, with a gender-based analysis. Significant variations in productivity losses due to heart disease were found across provinces. Central Java had the highest loss (IDR 9.39 trillion), followed by East Java (IDR 9.20 trillion). Jakarta, with the highest minimum wage, had a comparatively smaller loss (IDR 7.92 trillion). Males accounted for 65% of productivity losses. These findings underscore the need for targeted health interventions to reduce YLL and mitigate economic burdens through early detection, improved healthcare access, and public health campaigns.
Co-Authors Cahyani, Fentya Yumna Cerinda, Mitha Diana, Ina Kusuma Mansur, Rizal Susi Ari Kristina Syarifuddin, Annisaul Karimah